NCEP Status “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director 1 NWS-OAR Model Issues Meeting December 3, 2012 College Park, MD

Outline Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite Ongoing Review Activities Operational Global Models: How to Improve Links to OAR Summary 2

Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite Climate – Weather Linkage Earth System Model – approach applied across all scales Run within ESMF MMEs applied across all scales Community model approach 3

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission –Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA  Related to ability to meet service-based metrics (below) –National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act)  Hurricane Track and Intensity  Winter Storm Warning  Precipitation Threat  Flood Warning  Marine Wind Speed and Wave Height –Customer Service Provider  Operational numerical guidance provides foundational tools used by Government, public and private industry to Improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth 4 Lead Time and Accuracy!

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 Regional DA 5 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM NMMB GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM NEMS-NMMB North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Refresh for Aviation Climate Forecast System NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 5 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS – OFS Great Lakes Northern Gulf of Mex Columbia R. Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware Space Weather ENLIL Sea Nettle Forecast Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Regional DA

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 Global Data Assimilation System Upgrade Hybrid system –Most of the impact comes from this change –Uses ensemble forecasts to help define background error NPP (ATMS) assimilated –Quick use of data 7 months after launch Use of GPSRO Bending Angle rather than refractivity –Allows use of more data (especially higher in atmos.) –Small positive impacts Satellite radiance monitoring code –Allows quicker awareness of problems (run every cycle) –Monitoring software can automatically detect many problems Partnership between research and operations –(NASA/GMAO, NOAA/ESRL, Univ OK, and NOAA/NCEP) Consolidation across systems –Unify operational data assimilation system for global, regional and hurricane applications –Cost effective—O&M –Configuration management 6 Implemented 22 May 2012

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 7 NCEP Closing the International Gap June, July, August 500hPa Geopotential RMSE  NCEP achieved significant improvement in 2012 for day 3 and beyond  NCEP is now similar to UKMO skill in this metric and AC Meteo-Fr CMC NCEP UKMO ECMWF Solid line lower than dashed indicates improvement between 2011 and 2012 NCEP Only System to show improvement between 2011 and 2012

8 AttributeCFS v1.0 Operational Since 2004 CFS v2.0 Operational Since March 2011 Multi-model Ensembles (MME) Analysis Resolution 200 km27 kmInternational MME (Operational) NCEP UKMet ECMWF MeteoFrance Atmosphere model 2003: 200 km/64 levels Humidity based clouds 2010: 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level OSU LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip National MME (Research) NCEP GFDL NCAR GSFC COLA U.Miami/RSMAS U.CO/CIRES Princeton Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output 24/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS)

Ongoing Review Activities UCAR Review Team –Has made the Strategic Model Plan the #1 priority Climate Test Bed Advisory Board –Build towards CFS v3, based on community input and climate-weather linkages –Expand MME concept to an “NMME” Space Weather –Build the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) within next 3-5 years by extending GFS up to 600 km Weather Models –DTC –NUOPC/ESPC –NAEFS 9

Operational Global Models: How to Improve GFS, CFS, MME Short term plans for FY13-15: build off new computer installation Longer term plans: –Establish evaluation criteria –Evaluate new model cores –Include within MME approach –Coordinate with NUOPC/ESPC –Include test bed as fundamental part of decision process –Work from written plans (e.g., DA plan) 10

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 11 Planned GFS/GDAS Operational Upgrade Next window of opportunity for GDAS/GFS upgrade Nov 2013 to May 2014 Follows WCOSS Moratorium Model configuration T1148 Semi-Lagrangian, L64 (~16km 0-8 days) T574 Semi-Lagrangian, L64 (~27km 8-16 days) Physics upgrades for the radiation and precipitation parameterizations Data assimilation upgrade 3D-En-Var Dual Resolution 80-member ensemble at 27-km and a 16-km analysis with 64 vertical levels New and enhanced observations Cloudy Radiance Satellite winds CrIS from NPP METOP-B SSMI/S GPS-RO enhancements New integrated bias correction Water Vapour analysis enhancements Climatological CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and CO for input in CRTM * Consistent cloud water retrieval in quality control

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 12 Planned GFS/GDAS 2015 Operational Upgrade Next window of opportunity for GDAS/GFS upgrade Nov 2014 to May 2015 Follows 2014 hurricane season Model configuration T1148L95 (0-8 days) T547L95 (8-16 days) Raised model top in preparation for space weather module Physics upgrades for the radiation and precipitation parameterizations Data assimilation upgrade 4D-En-Var Dual Resolution 80-member ensemble at 27-km and a 16-km analysis with 95 vertical levels New and enhanced observations New integrated bias correction

NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 13 Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales Predictability Research: e.g., South East US Drought Model Evaluation and Development Initialization Strategies: e.g., Land, Ocean Fosters interaction between research and operations Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center Participating Organizations: University of Miami - RSMAS National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Center for Ocean-- ‐ Land-- ‐ Atmosphere Studies (COLA) International Research Ins7tute for Climate and Society (IRI) Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon) National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Project Data are available at: NASA – GMAO NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC NOAA/GFDL Princeton University University of Colorado (CIRES

Links to OAR CPO –CFS/CTB –DYNAMO ESRL/Boulder –Rapid Refresh –Data Assimilation –Global Weather –HFIP –Drone Evaluation GFDL –Oceans! –Climate – NMME, FV dynamic core –Physics AOML –JCSDA –HFIP ARL –HYSPLIT –Air Quality NSSL –Mesoscale MME –Radar DA 14 Keep in mind, we have similar lists for NESDIS and NOS

Summary NCEP is strategically positioned to work with larger research community extending well beyond OAR (NESDIS, NOS, NSF, NASA, DOE) Exceptional interaction with OAR – most productive has been initiated through written agreements (DA & FIM most recent examples) Agree we need a strategy for models and HPCC within NOAA for short term weather (day 1-15; DTC Testbed?) and short term climate (week 2 – seasonal and beyond; CTB) Implementation process must be inclusive and criteria for decision well-documented. Nevertheless, NCEP Director will still have final say. 15

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