Petroleum Economics Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences University of South Carolina January 2002 Source: EIA.

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Presentation transcript:

Petroleum Economics Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences University of South Carolina January 2002 Source: EIA

World Oil Demand Declines: Oil embargo, 1973 Revolution in Iran, 1979 Economic crisis in Asia and FSU, Oil Consumption

World Oil Demand Increments in Oil Consumption by Region Largest increase: Asia

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption per Capita by Region Declines: Industrialized countries: oil price crises EE/FSU: collapse of communism Developing countries: no decline

World Oil Demand Oil Intensity by Region Continuous decline

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption by Sector Industrialized countries: Transportation Developing countries: Other uses Main area of growth:

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in the Developing World China: 6.1 MBD South Korea: 1.2 MBD India: 3.9 MBD Middle East: 5.3 MBD Africa: 2.9 MBD Central and South America: 4.7 MBD Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020:

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in the Industrialized World Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020: USA: 6.3 MBD Mexico: 2.2 MBD Canada: 0.3 MBD Western Europe: 1.5 MBD Japan: 0.35 MBD

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in EE/FSU Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020: FSU: 4.1 MBD Eastern Europe: 0.2 MBD

World Oil Supply

More than 2/3 of increase in oil demand will be supplied by OPEC World Oil Production by Region

World Oil Supply Projected growth rate: 3.4% per year OPEC Oil Production

World Oil Supply OPEC and Non-OPEC production

World Oil Supply Non-OPEC production by Region, 2020

World Oil Supply Top World Oil Producers, 2000 CountryProduction Estimates (million bbl/d) 1)Saudi Arabia9.12 2)United States9.08 (5.83 of which was crude oil) 3)Russia6.71 4)Iran3.81 5)Mexico3.48 6)Norway3.32 7)China3.25 8)Venezuela3.14 9)United Kingdom )Canada )Iraq )United Arab Emirates )Kuwait )Nigeria )Indonesia )Brazil )Libya )Algeria1.43 Red: OPEC member Blue: Non-OPEC member

World Oil Supply Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2000 CountryNet Exports (million bbl/d) 1)Saudi Arabia )Russia )Norway )Venezuela )Iran )United Arab Emirates )Iraq )Kuwait )Nigeria )Mexico )Libya )Algeria )United Kingdom 1.06 Red: OPEC member Blue: Non-OPEC member

World Oil Supply 814 B bbl Total: 1030 B bbl

World Oil Trade