A World in Ferment Risks & Opportunities A World in Ferment Life on Planet Earth

BYA 4.5 Earth is born Earth grew from a cloud of dust and rocks. Eventually rocks were massive enough to attract other rocks with the force of gravity, becoming the Earth 3.5 Origin of life Oldest confirmed fossils of single-celled microorganisms 3.4 Photosynthesis emerges 3.0 Plate techtonics large plates of rock move and collide 2.4Oxidation Oxygen is released into the atmosphere 2.0 Complex cells begin to appear

Planet Earth MYA 1,000? Multicellular life A frozen world 535Cambrian explosion Animal species of all kinds appear within tens of millions of years 465Plants colonise the land Ice age leads to 1 st mass extinction 375Animal species walk on land 325Dawn of the reptiles 300Earth’s plates combine into one landmass

Big Mass Extinctions Mass extinctions = periods in Earth's history when abnormally large numbers of species die out within a relatively short time frame MYAMass Extinction Scale of extinction

Milestones in Human Evolution Years AgoEvent 2 million – 10,000Most recent ice age 1.8 million – 10,000 PLEISTOCENE AGE 1.8 million – 200,000Homo erectus exist 1 million – 500,000Homo erectus tame fire 500,000 – 100,000Lower Palaeolithic (Old Stone Age) 300,000Geminga formed in supernova explosion (almost as bright as the Moon) 200,000 – 30,000Homo sapiens neanderthalensis 150,000 – present Homo sapiens sapiens – HUMAN ERA

Evolutionary Journey Key Features The human species, like all other species, is engaged in a perpetual challenge-response dynamic: ADAPTING TO A CONSTANTLY CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Some responses prove adaptive, others maladaptive Test of adaptation is “reproductive efficiency” = capacity to keep on reproducing over the long-term. Adaptiveness can be clearly evaluated only after the event. Only outcome that is beyond dispute is extinction.

Evolutionary Journey Key Features Our planet and all life on it have evolved though an endless series of small, almost imperceptible changes. BUT at given moments, which we call thresholds [TRANSITIONS], change gathers pace and intensity, as a result of which it can be said that we move from one epoch (or age) to another. What is true of evolution as a whole is true of human evolution, but with one important difference – one additional layer of complexity: H E =biological inheritance x cultural inheritance within a changing environmental context

Milestones in Human Evolution Years AgoEvent 100,000 – 40,000Middle Palaeolithic 100,000 – 50,000Probable appearance of human language 60,000 – 40,000 Homo sapiens enter Australia 40,000 – 10,000Upper Palaeolithic (Late Stone Age) 25,000 – 10,000Most recent glaciation 20,000Homo sapiens paint the Altamira Cave 12,000 – present Neolithic [Holocene age] 12,000Homo sapiens domesticate dogs in Iraq 12,000 – 10,000 Agriculture is established in the Near East 10,000 First permanent homo sapiens settlements 10,000Fire used to cast copper & harden pottery 5,200 Writing (cuneiform) is developed in Sumeria

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Ecological Perspective THE ANTHROPOCENE Some argue: Human activity has fundamentally changed the planet  we have entered a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene  Humans have directly affected <83% of planet’s viable land surface  They have impacted everything: o from the makeup of ecosystems to the geochemistry of the Earth o from the atmosphere to the oceans.

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Ecological Perspective Visual representation of geological time

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Ecological Perspective THE ANTHROPOCENE Disagreement about its origins – When did this epoch begin?  Some say: It is impossible to know – or too early to tell  Others: Anthropocene began with the advent of agriculture  Others still:S ince the Industrial Revolution  Yet others: After World War II: the Great Acceleration

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Ecological Perspective GLOBAL WARMING

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Ecological Perspective GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Ecological Perspective

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Governance Perspective Human evolution cannot, however, be understood just in terms of environmental change & the ecological impact of human activity To understand our current predicament we must have a sense of the road we’ve travelled over several thousand years We need to revisit the way human societies have evolved culturally, how they have organised themselves – economically and politically – over time [= GOVERNANCE ] Only by doing this can we better understand where we currently find ourselves, and where we might be heading.

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Governance Perspective Over time, human organisation has become increasingly complex: band  From the prehistoric band of foragers (numbering a few dozen) tribe  To the tribe (a few hundred) chiefdom  To the chiefdom (a few thousand) state  To the state (often over 50,000) But there is more to complexity than size and demography

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Governance Perspective Over time more complex societies involve:  more intensive forms of food production  greater specialisation & division of labour  more elaborate patterns of exchange  more hierarchical forms of decision making  more elaborate bureaucratic structures  Moe centralised coercive institutions

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Governance Perspective  Rise of agricultural settlements (10,000 – 3,500 BCE) – first in Middle East and Asia  Early complex societies (3,500 – 2,000 BCE) – Mesopotamia, Egypt, India, China – Axial Age  Ancient civilisations (2,000 – 800 BCE) – powerful imperial states in Mesopotamia, Egypt, China  Classical civilisations (800 BCE – 200 CE) – Greece, Rome, China  Post classical empires (200 – 1,100 CE) – Byzantium, Abbasid empire in ME, Tang empire in China

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Governance Perspective MODERN EPOCH Pro Modern Period Pro Modern Period late 11th century to middle of 16 th century Early Modern period Early Modern period middle of 16th century to late 18 th century Late Modern period Late Modern period late 18th to middle of 20 th century

Making Sense of the Human Predicament Governance Perspective LATE MODERN PERIOD sees the rise of the modern industrial sovereign (liberal-democratic) nationalSTATE