LOCAL DAMAGE SURVEYS Doug Speheger National Weather Service Forecast Office Norman OK.

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Presentation transcript:

LOCAL DAMAGE SURVEYS Doug Speheger National Weather Service Forecast Office Norman OK

When we survey Office policy Office policy In general, for Norman: In general, for Norman: - Possible F2 or greater - Possible F2 or greater damage damage - Tornado fatality - Tornado fatality - Unusual scientific event - Unusual scientific event - Tornado vs. high-end wind event - Tornado vs. high-end wind event National QRT (Quick Response Team) National QRT (Quick Response Team) - Possible F4/F5 damage - Possible F4/F5 damage

Why we survey

Tornado vs. wind

Learn more… - Risks

Learn more… -Risks -Points of Failure

Aerial Surveys ADVANTAGES: - Big picture. - Better continuity between roads and in inaccessible areas. Photo by Al Pietrycha (NWS Chicago) near LaSalle, IL (April 2004)

Aerial Surveys ADVANTAGES: - Big picture. - Better continuity between roads and in inaccessible areas.

Aerial Surveys ADVANTAGES: - Big picture. - Better continuity between roads and in inaccessible areas. DISADVANTAGES: - Difficult to find damage from weak events. - Can not rate intensity. - Not always available. - Detail depends on vegetation type or building density

Ask questions! Taken from NWS Service Assessment Oklahoma/southern Kansas Tornado Outbreak of May 3, 1999 (page 14).

Ask questions! Taken from NWS Service Assessment Oklahoma/southern Kansas Tornado Outbreak of May 3, 1999 (page 14). Real story: House burned down a few months before. Not tornado damage!

F-scale estimation - Must look at ALL the evidence - Variations in perceived damage intensity may be the result of change in tornado intensity, or suggestion that perceived intensity may not apply! -Depends on available points of reference

F-scale estimation - Must look at ALL the evidence - Variations in perceived intensity may be the result of change in event intensity, or suggestion that perceived intensity may not apply! -Depends on available points of reference

April 11, 2001 – SE Oklahoma

October 9, 2001 – W Oklahoma

What we can learn Almost 100 surveyed tornadoes between :

General caveats about surveys - Depend significantly on number/type of targets - Not the last word! - Also use eyewitnesses, other data sources - Damage that you see may not be what you think

Non-surveyed tornadoes For Norman: - Weigh evidence - Get as many reports as possible - Photos/ videos - Compare reports to make sure same tornado - Compare times to other reports/radar - Newspaper reports of damage/photos - Plot locations/triangulate - Compare to radar (not using as verification, but just to make sure it makes some sense)

1: 6:48 pm, 2 S Okarche 2: 6:54 pm, 2 S Okarche 3: About 7:00 pm, WNW from 4 S Okarche 4: 6:45 pm, 2 W Okarche 5: No time, 2 S Okarche 6: About 7:00 pm, SW of Okarche 7: “Within 5 minutes” of 6:54 pm, 2 SSW Okarche 8: 6:58 pm, 3 SSE Okarche 9: About 7:00 pm, S from 1.25 W Okarche Photo by Hank Baker

Photo by Putnam Reiter 1: 3:30 pm, 4 W Thomas 2: 3:30 pm, 4 NNE Custer City 3: No time, WNW from 3 WSW Thomas 4: 3:25-3:30 pm, WNW from Thomas 5: No time, N of Custer City 6: 3:30 pm, 4 NW Thomas 7: No time, ENE from 2 NE Custer City 8: about 3:35 pm, N of Custer City 9: No time, brief N of Custer City 10: No time, N of Custer City 11: No time, N/NW from 2 NE Custer City 12: Before 3:36 pm, 5 WSW Thomas

Doug Speheger National Weather Service Norman OK