DECISION-MAKING SYSTEMS Decision Support Software & Artificial Intelligence (especially Expert Systems)

Making a Decision When you have a decision to make, you can select to use one of two techniques: you can optimize or satisfice. Optimization –F–F Satisficing –F–F

Making a Decision When did you use optimization in this course? –When you used When did you use the satisficing technique in this course? –When you Trial and error Determining a break-even point Basic what-if analysis Goal seek Through the creation of data tables (one-variable and two-variable) Scenario Manager

Comparing a DSS to Artificial Intelligence Decision Support System (DSS) –U involved with the system. –Relies on. The user must understand problem situation and what needs to be done. –The user Artificial Intelligence –User because all of the expertise –The /choice.

In general, spreadsheets are considered what? –D–D Artificial Intelligence is the science of making machines –The abilities to reason through a process, learn, being able to adapt and being able to solve a problem. –Previously studied intelligent agents, expert systems, genetic algorithms and neural networks. Optimization is the decision making technique used in which form of artificial intelligence –??

Applications of Genetic Algorithms Deciding which combination of projects a firm should invest in, given limited investment dollars. Generating solutions to routing problems –How much cable or track to lay? –What path/route should your delivery vehicles take? Used to optimize production schedules (make the best use of your production resources) Investment companies use them to generate optimal stock/bond portfolios by considering different combinations of stocks and bonds. Clothing manufacturing: cutting a piece of fabric so as to generate the least amount of waste. The Traveling Salesman Nails

AN EXPERT SYSTEM is an artificial intelligence system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion. An expert system Tricks of the tradeKnowledge base Reasoning Process

Expert Systems Programming is in the form of Rules, If-Then statements, and Reasons Decision Support System guides you, but you must reason through the problem. Expert Systems : you provide the facts, it solves the problem. Used as diagnostic and prescriptive.

Expert System Rules for a Bank Mortgage Application

Traffic Light Expert System