Migration, Climate Change and the Environment & Angela Santucci Project Officer International Organization for Migration (IOM) Cairo, 20 – 21 September 2010

Potential Effects of Climate Change “The gravest effects of climate change may be those on human migration.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1990 Where do we stand now? –20 million displaced by climate related natural disasters in 2008 What about the future? –Most widely cited figure: 200 million environmental migrants by 2050

Links Between Environment and Migration Both natural disasters and environmental degradation can induce migration Climate change is likely to exacerbate these events and processes Migration can affect the environment in places of destination & origin and along transit routes Economic, social and developmental factors complicate the interactions between migration and the environment Environmental migration is a multi-causal phenomenon

Migration as Adaptation Migration can strengthen livelihoods through income diversification via remittances, the transfer of knowledge and skills and/or relocation  Migration is one possible adaptation strategy

Case Study: Egypt Expected climate change impacts: –Sea-level rise –Water scarcity –Desertification Expected impacts on human mobility: –International mobility –Internal mobility (rural to urban)

North Coast and Nile Delta 60% of Egypt’s agriculture Four million people Vulnerable to sea rise and salination Sediment starvation Internal and international migration

Egypt: Land at Risk from Sea-level Rise

Egypt: Migration by Governorate International Migration Aspirations among Egyptian Youth 15-29, by Governorate

Egypt: Migration by Governorate Internal Migration Experience among Egyptian Youth 18-29, by Destination Governorate

Pilot Project: Assessment and Strategy Development to Respond to Sea-Level Rise and Human Mobility To better understand actual and potential impacts and consequences of sea-level rise on human mobility –Creation of a technical working group of key stakeholders and inception workshop –Rapid assessments conducted To design and test practical pilot initiatives to help respond to sea-level rise induced mobility –Pilot initiatives developed and implemented –Assessment of pilot initiatives to evaluate success To enhance awareness among key stakeholders of the inter-linkages between sea-level rise and human mobility –Workshop for key stakeholders to disseminate findings and develop recommendations and follow up actions –Final report based on assessment findings and implemented activities, including lessons learned and recommendations Donor: IOM’s 1035 Funding Facility

The Way Forwards: IOM’s Vision First - minimize forced migration and ensure protection and assistance where displacement is inevitable; Second - facilitate the role of migration as an adaptation strategy to climate change and seek to strengthen the developmental benefits of such migration for areas of origin; Third - plan for relocation in areas that are expected to become uninhabitable to avoid a crisis situation and ensure sustainability; Fourth - bolster humanitarian action with adequate resources to meet the growing challenge of climate change; Fifth - mainstream environmental and climate change considerations into migration management policies and practice, and vice versa.

Thank you