Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde: het einde van het 55 systeem? “ 1993 was a history-making year in Japanese politics. Our people recovered their status as masters of their political situation. I am very optimistic about the future Japanese capability to handle their political problems. ” (Naoki Tanaka, director of the 21 st Century Public Policy Institute)

Change …  Japanese politics in the 1990s: a new context End of the cold war Globalization Recession  Architect of the new  political era: Ozawa Ichiro Creates new party 1993 LDP in opposition LDP regains power Ichiro Ozawa in foreign policy making: o_Ozawa

The LDP desintegrates  Miyazawa Kiichi ( ) Symbol of the old political generation Recruit scandal (‘89) Sagawa Kyubin scandal (‘92)  Kanemaru Shin convicted in 1992 for corruption  the end of a political generation and political culture

Miyazawa Kiichi

Struggle within the LDP  Obuchi Keizo vs Ozawa Ichiro  Reforming the election system  Ozawa becomes spokesman for reformers: factions and money barrier for normal political role for Japan  Young generation for Ozawa; older for Obuchi  Ozawa and 40 mp’s reach out to opposition

Miyazawa stumbles  Fails to reform election system  Economic recession worsens  Motion of no-confidence by opposition on accepted because of Ozawa’s support  Miyazawa disbands parliament and feels let down

The birth of an anti-LDP coalition: preparations  Masayoshi Takemura also leaves LDP and creates Sakigake さきがけ  Takemura reaches out to Morihiro Hosokawa’s Nihon Shinto 日本新党  Ozawa creates Shinseito 新政党  Ozawa fears coalition between LDP and Takemura-Hosokawa and starts negotiating with socialists for broad coalition against LDP

The birth of an anti-LDP coalition  Elections on New parties won many seats; LDP lost less than expected ( ) and main loss with JSP (136-70) Ozawa disappointed because no majority: choice up to Takemura-Hosokawa: LDP or Ozawa?  Why did socialists join forces with Ozawa? New election system badly needed; impossible with LDP  Why did Takemura-Hosokawa choose for Ozawa? Ozawa offered prime minister position to Hosokawa Takemura had no choice and joined 6 parties in major coalition against LDP

Hosokawa Morihiro

The Hosokawa government  Hosokawa prime minister; Doi speaker; Takemura spokesman  Morihiro Hosokawa: successor of a political dynasty Opposition from the region Agenda:  Reform of the election system Accepted in : 300 districts first pasts the post; 200 proportional representation  APL Hosokawa resigned in march 1994 after 9 months Coalition divided on article 9: Ozawa wants to change; Takemura opposed to change  End of the coalition in June 1994

Ozawa Ichiro pulls the strings …

The LDP regains power  LDP forms coalition with socialists and Sakigake: unlikely alliance in change for socialist prime minister  Tomiichi Murayama prime minister; Takeshita strong person  LDP considers SPJ as a faction

Murayama Tomiichi

Escalating social crisis  : Earthquake in Kobe Late and inadequate reaction  : Aum Shinrikyo’s sarin gas attack in Tokyo subway Poor control over religious groups  Socialist party under attack in 1995 higher house elections: maintains 16 from 46 seats  LDP regains full control at the start of 1996 but in a different context: coalitions become norm and transparency required

The economic engine sputters  Ryutaro Hashimoto ( ) Takeshita faction Strong and nationalistic Reformer in Nakasone government  Deep recession: unemployment, bankcrisis, problem of US army bases in Okinawa and first elections according to new system

Hashimoto Ryutaro

Opposition inside and outside the government  Kan Naoto (Sakigake) Minister of Health Care Hemophilia patients infected with HIV virus Conflict between Kan and his ministry  Kan disappointed in own party and government: creates DPJ 日本民主党 with Hatoyama Yukio Right wing alternative to the LDP 57 mp ’ s join  LDP 239/500: minority government

Hashimoto as a ‘new leader’  Deregulation, reform and privatization Financial system Economy Education Administration (less ministries)  Coalition with Ozawa’s Shinshinto in 9-’97 Many members return to LDP Ozawa creates Liberal Party 自由党 Other members join the DPJ which becomes largest opposition party

Hashimoto’s failure: the final end of the miracle?  1997: a turning point East Asian financial crisis Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Yamaichi Shoken Long Term Credit Bank  Hashimoto insecure about which measures to take  Higher House elections in 1998: LDP wins 44 seats in stead of expected 61; DPJ won 47; Com. 23

Obuchi: ‘cold pizza’ or wily diplomat?  Obuchi Keizo ( ) Obuchi used media well Wants strong government: coalition with Liberal party  Ozawa’s conditions Less ministries Answers in parliament by ministers  : 情報公開法 Mori Yohei: 天皇家の財布

Obuchi Keizo

Another unlikely partner: Komeito  Coalition joined by Komeito in Sokagakkai Against constitutional change For clean government Initially lower incomes but now elder middle class electorate  : Ozawa kicked out of coalition  One day later: brain hemorrhage but Obuchi very popular

Nationalism, Russia and blunders  Mori Yoshiro ( ) Emperor is center Change constitution to cope with North-Korea Restore relations with Russia  Nationalism was popular but Mori not  General elections LDP loses majority; DPJ from 95 to 127  Mori steps back

Mori Yoshiro

Koizumi: Japan’s Richard Gere?  Election of a new LDP president in front of Media  Choice between old and new Japan  Yasukuni: Yes!  Change the rules to elect the LDP president  Who is Junichiro Koizumi?  New Japan; new LDP with strong and open leadership (Tanaka, Fukuda and Takenaka)

Koizumi Junichiro Koizumi and anti-terrorist legislation: w/v023/23.1shinoda.html w/v023/23.1shinoda.html

Real opposition against the LDP  : unification of DPJ and LP  General elections of predicted to be ‘the day that the Berlin wall fell’.  Manifest  Koizumi faces problems: Tanaka out; conflict with Nakasone

The start of a new political era?  General elections LDP 247>237 DPJ 136>177 SPJ 18>6 Com. 20>9 Komeito 31>34  Komeito important  DPJ real alternative for LDP

Elections in November 2003

Vraag en lectuur volgende week (25 november 2009)  Which post-war Japanese Prime Minister was most influential (domestically and internationally)?  Hoofdstuk 5 en 6