Potential changes to scope of agricultural surveys and censuses in the Australian context Allan Nicholls Australian Bureau of Statistics

Agriculture statistics over time ABS and its predecessors have been producing agriculture statistics for over 140 years The type and range of data has changed over the years Commodity production statistics have been the basis of agricultural statistics

Why do we need statistics about agriculture? Agriculture –Can impact significantly on GDP because of its volatility –Accounts for a significant component of exports –Utilizes a large proportion of natural resources 60% of Australia’s land area 65% of stored water –Is a significant employer and life-blood of many rural areas

Agriculture program in the ABS Main collections are: –Agricultural census (every 5 years) –Agricultural survey (in non-census years) –Value of agricultural commodities produced (annually) –Apples and pears (annually) –Vineyards (annually) –Livestock slaughtered (monthly) –Poultry and game birds slaughtered (quarterly) –Wool receivals, purchases and sales (quarterly) –Stock of grain held by bulk handling companies and grain traders (monthly)

A new data collection from farm businesses Space on the ag sample/census is limited Demand for data from farm businesses is high New biennial survey of farm businesses – Natural Resource Management Survey Focus is on NRM issues related to farming Funding provided by government as part of ongoing ABS budget

Ag Survey / Census Census of about 155,000 farm businesses –Surveys of about 35,000 (about 22%) Exclude very small farms which only make a very small contribution to total production Collects data on area of holding, production and area for a large range of crops, fruit and vegetables, and numbers of livestock In recent years has also collected data on land use, water and a range of environmental and land management related topics

Increased demand for data Increased interest in issues related to environmental, economic and community sustainability Demand for traditional commodity data is still strong

Demand for more commodity data Vegetables –Demand for a wider range of vegetable commodities –Ag survey/census is appropriate vehicle –Industry has decided to fund additional items Organic commodities –Market for organic produce continues to expand –Ag survey/census is appropriate vehicle –Would require significant change to questionnaire –Priority not yet high enough to warrant this work GM commodities –Only cotton grown to date –Demand low, but expected to grow quickly if and when more GM commodities are grown –Ag survey/census is appropriate vehicle, unless admin data is available

Demand for commodity data, ctd Aquaculture –Not currently included in ag survey/census –Some data compiled by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE – part of Agriculture ministry) –Improvements should be targeted at ABARE collection, as scope of ag survey/census would need to change significantly Forestry –Not currently included in ag survey/census –Some data compiled by the Bureau of Rural Sciences (BRS – part of Agriculture ministry) –Improvements should be targeted at BRS collection, as scope of ag survey/census would need to change significantly –Ag survey /census has been used to monitor tree planting by farmers

Natural Resource Management (NRM) information related to farming Ag survey/census and the NRM Survey are key collection vehicles for this type of information Water use –Availability and use of water is a high priority policy issue and high demand for data –Have asked a large range of questions on water related issues in recent years –Will continue to be a high priority issue for many years

NRM demand, ctd Land management practices –Very little of Australia’s soil is regarded as ‘good quality’ for agriculture –Need a range of fertilizers, soil conditioners and other practices to support productive farming –Land mgt practices can impact on NRM condition –Policy makers need data on changes to sustainable land management practices –Some questions have been asked in the past Fallow land, cultivation practices, treatment of crop stubble, use of fertilizers and use of soil conditioners Govt has funded an additional survey in to address these issues

NRM demand, ctd Climate change –Potential to have a significant impact on framing productivity –Raised as an emerging issue by policy makers –Preliminary data sought on NRM survey –Demand expected to increase in future years

Demographic and social characteristics First issue is succession planning –Many of Australia’s farmers are ageing –their children have careers in cities –Significant issue confronting rural communities –Population census provides some data

Demographic and social characteristics,ctd Second issue is the role played by farmers in managing the land –Need to understand the factors influencing farmers behaviour in relation to Farm management practices Uptake of new technology Undertaking environment protection work on farms –Policy makers can better design and target policies to change farmer behaviour –Neither pop census nor ag census collect all the data needed –Nor is it possible to link these census datasets –The inclusion of personal characteristics on the ag survey needs to be further explored

Farm financial data Data about the financial position of farms is also in high demand Broad financial data is obtained as part of the economic activity survey, but very small sample ABARE has detailed data for broadacre and dairy, but again, sample is small Admin data from the tax system has good potential – this is currently being explored further Adding to the ag survey/census is not an appropriate solution

Geographic detail Until recently ag survey/census results have been provided using standard ABS geographic structures But these have not been particularly useful to some users Particular focus now on natural resource management – with specific regional structures developed to monitor progress Data for NRM regions and other regions based on water catchments etc are now needed

Geographic detail,ctd ag census obtained information to enable farms to be coded to very small geographic areas – mesh blocks Will enable ag census data to be provided for a wide range of different regional structures based on aggregations of mesh blocks Also enable future ag surveys and NRM surveys to produce data for NRM regions Significant improvement as far as major users are concerned

Scope cut-off Scope of ag collections excludes farm businesses which make only a very small contribution to overall ag production (typically hobby farms) This is appropriate for measuring ag production, but not ideal when measuring aspects of natural resource management – small farms can collectively have a significant impact on natural resource condition Scope cut-off could be eliminated, but will still not cover all land managers Alternative is to use a land parcel frame Approach has been trialled and works well for collections which target particular regions –But not suitable for a national collection

Administrative data Potential to improve data availability and reduce costs – if the right data can be found Main admin dataset used by ABS is tax data Quite an extensive dataset Potential to provide information about financial position of farmers

Linking datasets Linking datasets would enable better use to be made of existing data Linking pop census and ag census data at unit level has been considered (and would open up huge analytical potential) –But decision not to proceed because of privacy concerns Coding of both pop census and ag census to mesh block will allow better linking at aggregate level, but this is a second best option Currently looking at linking ag census and tax data at unit level –Would allow analysis of farm profitability and sustainability

Conclusion Agriculture is facing a range of issues –Natural resource management –Climate change –Sustainability ( financial and environmental) Leading to increased demand for data Ag survey/census are suitable vehicles for much of this data –So scope of these must change Main constraint is capacity –Both costs of collection and increased provider load

Conclusion, ctd ABS response has been to –Obtain funding for an additional survey (biennial NRM Survey) –Seek (and receive) user funding for other collection activity –Explore more extensive use of admin data –Explore linking of datasets

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