Climate Change A Wine Industry Perspective Brief: Changes our industry are observing and what it might mean more generally for irrigators Land use change implications of the decisions industry will be faced with 9 th of May Strengthening Basin Communities – Climate Change Adaptation SA MDB NRM – Murray Bridge

Tim’s simplistic definition of science Deriving a level of confidence in a result obtained in a specified set of conditions Climate Change - Incredibly Complex Modelling Large scale Different models: Different estimates (T change per change in greenhouse gases) Uncertainty inherent (range of estimates)

Complexity continues as consideration is given to broader issues Resources and resource interaction Climate, soil, water, fauna, flora Biosecurity Ecosystem dynamics Population Dynamics Will concentration continue to occur around the East Coast of Australia? Will agriculture land continue to be encroached upon by urban sprawl? Migration of skills/infrastructure

WHAT WE KNOW Agriculture/horticulture is exposed and sensitive to climate Backed up by a large pool of corporate knowledge (observation) across numerous generations of farmers/growers Livelihood depends on how they respond to the seasonal challenges of climate Time is the only means by which the models will be tested and validated Don’t know too many practitioners who have the time to scrutinise the scientific backbone of models Point of intervention: potential cost of inaction, opportunity to improve outcomes in current climate

Five Key Climate Change Questions From Practical Viticulturists (Hayman et al 2009) 1.What are the risks and opportunities presented by government policies to reduce greenhouse gases? 2.What is the carbon footprint of my organisation? 3.What are the projections for key variables such as temperature and rainfall for my region? 4.What do these changes mean for grape growing? 5.How can we adapt grape growing to manage the changes?

1.What are the risks and opportunities presented by government policies to reduce greenhouse gases? I’d go one step further and make it climate change policy Only have to have a look at what is occurring with Basin Plan at the moment Will we have the right water products? What will happen to our infrastructure? Carbon economy – waste management – rising input costs – carbon farming (can our soils hold C in perpetuity?) How we face these questions will impact on land use – it falls within our sphere of influence!

2.What is the carbon footprint of my organisation? Winemakers Federation of Australia – collaborative international effort to build carbon calculator SA Wine Industry Association & Wine Grape Growers Council of SA signed a sector agreement with the State Govt. In the Riverland there was large initial interest Corporates ended up driving the response Growers need to be convinced – doubts about the accuracy of the calculator – doubts about its ability to derive meaning for their business Water efficiency: greenhouse gas emission paradox

3.What are the projections for key variables such as temperature and rainfall for my region? Confidence in a warming trend Less confidence about rainfall – though somewhat more confidence that the southern part of the Basin will be drier Summer and autumn projected to be wetter – less confidence Moderate confidence in increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves – ouch!

4.What do these changes mean for grape growing? Increase in mean temperature Bring ripening forward Warmer nights – increased respiration – impacts on acid retention Warmer nights – increased refrigeration costs at the winery Truncated vintages – pressure on logistics: picking, crushing and fermenting capacity, transport etc. Rainfall and water balance Rainfall in the catchment and impacts on run-off vital for sustaining irrigation Lower winter and spring rainfall will impinge upon rootzone salinity management Irrigation is a major tool for managing vine growth and micro-climate in warm regions

4.What do these changes mean for grape growing? Extreme events Much harder to manage Challenge skill sets Challenge infrastructure – eg operating peak for irrigation systems OH&S risks – field staff Bushfires and smoke taint – vignerons in Victoria currently complaining about damage from a controlled burn exercise How do we manage recovery?

5.How can we adapt grape growing to manage the changes? Adaptation is happening, whether it’s being attributed to climate change is another thing New Varieties – Italian and Spanish origins Rootstocks – water efficient, drought resistant On demand irrigation – change to drip Water trade Change in irrigation practice – irrigate at night Improved understanding of vine physiology – develop canopy early Optimising inputs

Adaptation example: Heat wave survey Extreme Heat: managing grapevine response based on vineyard observations from the 2009 heatwave across south-eastern Australia (Webb L. et al 2009) Surveyed regions: Mornington Peninsula, Yarra Valley, Rutherglen, Heathcote, Murray Darling/Swan Hill, Riverland, Barossa Valley, McLaren Vale, Coonawarra and Tasmania Approx.10 vineyards from each region surveyed January and 6-8 February Coincided with Black Saturday

Adaptation example: Heat wave survey Results extract “Paradoxically, low levels of damage were also reported in the Murray Darling/Swan Hill and Riverland regions despite them experiencing the most extreme conditions. In this case, it was mainly because current vineyard management already addresses regular exposure to high temperatures. Large canopies are grown, water is managed to assist the vines’ capacity to cope in hot climates.”

Adaptation example: Heat wave survey Discussion extract “The estimates of losses were not always related to the amount of heat above a certain threshold. We found they were, in most cases, more influenced by the regional and inter-regional management strategies and viticulture practice employed by the managers participating in the survey.” Four vineyard variables of major influence 1.Adequate water application was critical to reduction of heat-stressed impact. 2.Poor canopy cover and/or bare inter-row increased exposure of berries to radiation impact. 3.Some phenological stages were more vulnerable to damage 4.Vineyards with east/west orientation were generally less severely impacted that those with north/south row orientation

Challenges for land use planning? Slide 6 – climate change policy Boom/bust cycle of horticulture and a restrained resource environment – water moving to higher valued commodity – will industry recovery be inhibited? What impact will it have on ITs? Globalisation – consolidation necessary to compete in the fast moving consumer good category Competing land use – will urban encroachment continue? Can we sustain the fundamentals for horticulture production in our regions? Are we in a position to assess the feasibility of our land for sequestering carbon? What can we do to attract sustainable value add industry to our regions? (clean energy, access to affordable land, efficient development assessment/planning approval)