Antonio Marquina Chair in International Security Director of UNISCI

Climate Change impacts on Security: On Human Security On State Security On International Security

On Human Security: Projections: Increasing temperatures in different parts of the world, decreasing precipitation, shortening of rainy season, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, health effects, environmentally induced migration, ocean acidification and natural disasters Serious implications for people: the satisfaction of their basic needs (water, food), health and on their possibility of development Complication for the governing capacity. Possible rise of authoritarian political regimes.

On State Security: 1-Possible relative weakening of various states because of the increasing poverty, loss of opportunities, competitivy and capacity. Climate change will undermine the economic and agricultural base of many countries and affect marine ecosystems. Possible Failed states. Environmentally induced migration. Countries can not close the doors 2-Possible increase in opportunities, wealth, capacity and resources in other states

Climate change will exacerbate existing tensions and even trigger new ones. Conflicts and Crisis. Increase resilience, reduce vulnerabilities. Adaptation and Mitigation: ACTION and limited resources Winners and loosers: Significant effects on regional security.

On International Security: Competition for the explotation of resources in new areas that can be open up for exploitation New Distribution of Power. New International Security Architecture Challenges: Maintenance of Peace and Security.Global Institutions Conflict Prevention ( including mitigation and adaptation policies, capacity building and other means including possible coercion) Humanitarian Intervention Responsability to Protect

Conflict Prevention Critical precondition is early warning Early warming systems for disasters, floods, forest fires, earthquakes… The EU current early warning systems will focus more on climate change and environmental degradation Potential dangers and areas of risk.

Recommendations for Early warning systems in the EU Food production Extreme weather events Drought, rainfall, desertification Retreat of glaciers Water supply Migration related to environmental factors Global factors, such as commodity prices

Tools Satellite Center of Torrejon National and European meteorological agencies Member states national administrations and embassies Commission delegations EU network of energy correspondents Joint Research Centre Third countries and International Organizations

New analytical methods Coordination with the EU crisis management structures Clear differentiation with other countries and continents such as Asia.

Early Action On Mitigation On Adaptation

On Human Security Freedom from want Freedom from fear and “conflict multiplier” links with hard security issues Not a clear line between human security and traditional security

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