The Three Themes: 1. Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling 2. Outstanding Scientific Problems 3. Infusion of Data into Models

Regional Climate Changes & Energy Modeling Vogelmann Miller Jensen Wagener Liu Daum Guo McGraw Lewis Chang Reisman Bhatt Wang Riemer Chang Colle Zhang Marat K. Lin NY Blue Center Zhang Lin

Monsoons Storm Tracks Hurricanes Storm Surge Energy use Regional Climate Changes & Energy Modeling

The Walker Circulation Monsoon (Zhang) Zhang and Song (2006)

Asian Monsoon

CCSM GFDL Monsoons (Zhang) Simulated Change of Monsoon in Global Warming Plan: Resolve mesoscale convective systems using CAM Ensembles

Regional Climate changes: Storm track variability and changes (E. Chang) Why are winter storms important? -- weather and regional climate -- transport heat and moisture poleward Impact of storm track changes: -- e.g. El Nino: Pacific storm track shifts southward: significant impacts on west coast climate Global warming model prediction: -- Storm tracks move poleward and intensify -- significant impacts on regional climate and hydrology

Issues: -- Reasons for such changes? -- How reliable are these predictions? Current model deficiencies: -- current climate models just resolving these storms -- physics: too strong coupling between moisture and dynamics? (Deficiencies in seasonal cycle) Fundamental science questions: -- what controls the location and intensity of storm tracks? -- Land sea distribution? Mountains? Heating? Methodology: -- Suite of high (1°) and lower resolution GCM simulations -- Novelty: -- diagnosed using a suite of diagnostic (statistical and mechanistic) models developed by the PI -- validation of analyses and GCMs using observations

An example: Seasonal cycle of Pacific storm track Validation of the mid-winter suppression using analyses of observations (Chang 2003) Reanalysis RadiosondeAircraft 250 hPa EKE NOV - FEB Zonal mean of 300 hPa EKE simulated by CAM3 Control No mountains

Wave period (s) Hurricanes (Wang)

8/27 8/29 8/28 8/30 Hurricanes (Wang)

New York City Vulnerability to Storm Surge (Colle) Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995 Flood areas for hurricane: CAT 1 CAT 2 CAT 3 CAT 4

FDR Drive during the December 1992 nor’easter (Bloomfield, 1999) Ref: Bloomfield, J., M. Smith and N. Thompson, Hot Nights in the City. Environmental Defense Fund, New York.

Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC) Forced by PSU-NCAR MM5 or WRF Atmospheric model at 12-km grid spacing

ADCIRC Water-level and Flooding 12-km MM5 Forecast 1200 UTC 11 December 1992 meters

MARKAL analyzes mitigation options for the entire energy system & can address adaptation Impacts, vulnerability & adaptation (IVA) approaches are difficult to analyze IVA effects are not yet comprehensively captured, including integrated assessment models (IAMs) Impacts, Adaptation & Mitigation: Missing Links (Reisman, Bhatt) *According to the IPCC AR4 WGII “technologies & strategies (for mitigation & adaptation) are known and developed”, but the “assessed literature does not indicate how effective various options are to fully reduce risks, particularly at higher levels of warming and related impacts, and for vulnerable groups.” Back to the Basics: Climate Change 101 Adaptation Systems Characteristics, Capacity to adapt Mitigation* Energy technologies, resources, Strategies Climate Change Science, Processes & Modeling Impacts & Vulnerability Magnitude & timing, Regional variations Avoided, Reduced or Delayed Diminish the Risks

MARKAL for Mitigation Analysis (Reisman, Bhatt) MARKAL Reference Energy System Integrated energy systems analysis model – bottom-up technology rich Analyzes environmental, technological and policy restrictions Facilitates devising optimal strategies for technology deployment based on life-cycle costs Signifies a flexible, transparent & well documented methodology Epitomizes scalability: Global, National, Regional, State & Urban variants On-going energy-climate related MARKAL applications include: President’s State of the Union address 2006 & Pre-Kyoto decision in 1997 U.S. DOE & U.S. EPA for GHG mitigation & impacts of DOE energy technology R&D on carbon and energy futures: GNEP, Renewable & Hydrogen, Energy-Water Nexus IPCC Scenario Analysis & G8 initiative – Gleneagles Summit 2005 MARKAL Overview

Future Work: IVA Modeling Develop an integrated feedback rich dynamic model to study long-term climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation that can interact seamlessly with selected climate models and MARKAL Start with Energy sector for a region (e.g. North-East or New York State) – recent experience: CCSP SAP 4.5 “Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in U.S.” Expand to industries, settlements, society, ecology, water and land-use and other regions Benefits: Identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems for decision makers Holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate

Population Exogenous growth rates Water & Ecology Availability, supply, distribution, consumption and treatment Social Impacts Public health Land-use & Settlements Shifts in use patterns, significant regional issues Energy Primary resources availability, production, depletion, saturation, technology, pricing Demand Adequate Quality & Quantity Welfare Long-term Sustainability Utility Population Economy Output, capital accumulation, energy demands, capacity utilization Urbanization Core-based Development Direct & Indirect Impacts Energy Orders Water for Energy Production Energy for Water Supply and Usage Climate Impacts Market and non- market damages from climate change Atmospheric GHG Concentrations Tangible Damages Consumption Acid Rain & Other Local Contamination Policy Control heuristics and collaborative partnerships for taxes, incentives and permits on emissions, energy, water and resource depletion Paradigm Shift in Policy Regime Labor Intangible Social Impacts Vulnerability of Supply & Infrastructure Tangible Damages to Land-use Public Health Concerns Major Feedback Processes among Energy, Climate, Water and Associated Systems Energy Use Emissions GHG & Criteria Pollutants

Common Questions What will happen? Why? What are the consequences? Models CAM (physical ensemble with high resolutions) POP ADCIRC MM5 MARKAL