Economic Development Framework for Interpreting Local Housing Markets in Small Town Canada Laura Ryser 1, Greg Halseth 1 & David Bruce 2 1 University of.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
IEC BC Forum in Prince George December 12, 2012 Heather Oland, CEO Initiatives Prince George Economic Development Corporation.
Advertisements

Land of Opportunity: Rural Depopulation and Potential Repopulation Strategies David Bruce, Director Rural and Small Town Programme Mount Allison University.
Bay Area Council Economic Institute The Bay Area Regional Economic Assessment.
LOCAL LABOUR MARKET CONSULTATION JONATHAN COULMAN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR.
Roles for Commodity Production in Sustaining Forests & Rangelands J. Keith Gilless Professor of Forest Economics UC Berkeley.
Treasury Policy Perspectives Graeme Davis Macroeconomic Policy Division.
Report on the Competitiveness of Puerto Rico’s Economy James Orr Federal Reserve Bank of New York May 10, 2013 The views expressed here are those of the.
A Knowledge Based Approach to Community Planning Dr. Patricia Byrnes Patrick Curry Arwiphawee Srithongrung.
British Columbia Economic Outlook Carol Frketich, BC Regional Economist.
Chapter 07: Single Family Housing: Pricing, Investment, and Tax Considerations McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All.
USING STATISTICS FOR LONG TERM SPATIAL PLANNING: THE ILEMBE 2050 REGIONAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Tindall Kruger and Pravina Govender 13 September 2013.
Including Youth in an Aging Society Laura Ryser, Don Manson and Greg Halseth.
Baltic Real Estate Markets‘ Dynamics Dr. Ieva Kvedaravičienė, MRICS ISM University of Management and Economics 1.
1 Role of Service Sector in the Economy of Nepal Presentation by Dr. Ramesh C. Chitrakar Expert 1 At Second National Stakeholder Workshop.
Beyond the Burbs: Affordable Housing Development in Rural Canada David Bruce, Director Rural and Small Town Programme Mount Allison University
Foster and sustain the environmental and economic well being of the coast by linking people, information, and technology. Center Mission Coastal Hazards.
©2011 Cengage Learning. Chapter 10 COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL MARKETS ©2011 Cengage Learning.
Exploring Diverse Landscapes of Hidden Rural Poverty Laura Ryser and Greg Halseth.
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MAINSTREAMING MIGRATION TO THE DEVELOPMENT AGENDA: SOUTH ASIAN EXPERIENCE Taj Samudra Hotel, Colombo, June 2013.
STATISTICSSTATISTIQUECANADA Aboriginal Labour Force Survey Province of Alberta.
2006 Census MRIA May 24, 2007 Anil Arora. 2 Pressures to change for 2006 Privacy issues (local enumerator) CCRA automation efforts and impact on capture.
The Functional Region Alvin Simms Dept. of Geography.
LOCAL LABOUR MARKET CONSULTATION JONATHAN COULMAN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR.
The World Economy and BC presented to Mortgage Investment Association of BC June 21, 2011 by Bernie Magnan Assistant Managing Director and Chief Economist.
Teaching as Outreach: A case study of the Northern Medical Program Laura Ryser 1, Greg Halseth 1, Neil Hanlon 1, Dave Snadden 1, and Joanna Bates 2 1 University.
Economic Environment of Business Lecture One: Overview of the UK Economy.
The Farm and Food System Chapter 2. Agriculture’s Role in US Economy What do you consider Agriculture? Agriculture includes: Family Farms Corporate Farms.
Resource Frontier Aging: Trends and questions from a mature industrial town in northern BC Greg Halseth, Neil Hanlon Rachael Clasby and Virginia Pow.
Growth & Demographic Characteristics of Seoul’s Population International Forum on Metropolitan Statistics, October 2008, Beijing Bongho Choi Korea.
Labour Market Outlook in Labrador A Presentation for the Workforce Connex Forum: Labrador June 19 th, 2006 Department of Human Resources, Labour & Employment.
Developing a Communication Strategy for Seniors in a Resource Town in Transition Laura Ryser and Greg Halseth.
Hranicko Region. Hranicko Microregion Hranice Hranicko will be an open, innovative and international oriented microregon, its prosperity is based on.
MAPS Chile Macroeconomic Modelling Results: MEMO II Model November 5th, 2014 EconLab III, Cape Town.
Presented by: Edoardo Pizzoli - HANDBOOK ON RURAL HOUSEHOLD, LIVELIHOOD AND WELL-BEING: STATISTICS ON RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND AGRICULTURE HOUSEHOLD INCOME.
Lessons & Perspectives Dr. George Norton Agricultural and Applied Economics Virginia Tech Copyright 2006.
The Long Road between Small Towns: Barriers to Building Community Development Partnerships in Rural BC Laura Ryser and Greg Halseth.
©2011 Cengage Learning. Chapter 6 ©2011 Cengage Learning REGIONAL AND COMMUNITY ANALYSIS.
2011 NIFA HOUSING INNOVATION MARKETPLACE CONFERENCE JANUARY 26, 2011 ERIC THOMPSON, DIRECTOR UNL BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH & NEBRASKA BUSINESS FORECAST.
Portraying Rural Canada1 Ray D. Bollman Statistics Canada Sylvie Michaud Statistics Canada Presentation to the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture.
2 Grow ACA’s Strategic Framework VISION: Arizona is the best location for high-quality business growth MISSION: Grow & diversify Arizona’s Economy & create.
4.0 Understanding the Local Economy Exploring the Human Resources/Economic Development Connection Community Choices: Public Policy Education Program 8.
Greg Halseth and Marleen Morris Co-Directors Housing Needs in Prince George: An Opportunity for Community Growth and Revitalization unbc.ca/community-development-institute.
Services Theme Mid-Term Review Greg Halseth University of Northern British Columbia
Forecasting Productivity Growth: 2004 to 2024 Productivity Perspectives March 2006 John Revesz.
Measuring Disability: Results from the 2001 Census and the 2001 Post-Censal Disability Survey Statistics Canada January 10, 2003.
What Census 2011 says about Free State agricultural households Moses Mnyaka – Stats SA 11 October 2013.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College Nelson B.C., September 13, 2008.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College LCCDT, Trail B.C., September24, 2008.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College Selkirk College, EDCO, Nelson B.C., December 9, 2008.
Halifax Housing Needs Assessment Planning & Development CDAC October 28, 2015.
Understanding Local Economies Goals To present export base theory as a model of the way a local economy works. To relate general export base theory to.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College Nakusp Development Board, Nakusp B.C. March 12, 2009.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College Healthy Housing Society, New Denver B.C., September 25, 2008.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College BC Rural Network, Revelstoke, B.C. March 25, 2009.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College CBT All Committee Meeting Castlegar B.C., October 25, 2008.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College Boundary Economic Development Committee Greenwood B.C., October 14, 2008.
Gender Analysis of Census Data In EGYPT By Tamy Abdel Hady The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics CAPMAS ov.eg.
Planning the New Rural Economy Fergus Murray Argyll and Bute Council Development Policy Manager.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College.
George Penfold Regional Innovation Chair Selkirk College City of Castlegar, May 19, 2009.
Western Ontario CFDCs Rural-Urban Divisions 2011 (Source: Statistics Canada Census of Population, 2011, Census Subdivision Data) 1.
Innovative Services and Voluntary Organizations Laura Ryser and Greg Halseth Rural and Small Town Studies University of Northern British Columbia April.
Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs Transitions Population and Economic Trends.
Russia’s Economy. The Soviet Economy state ownership of almost all economic resources; collectivized agriculture; “command planning”: central planning.
ESNA Economic Outlook 2016: Alberta’s Fiscal and Environmental Challenges “It could be worse…..” Mike Percy Ph.D. December 3,
Annual GDP Estimates by Production and Income Approaches in China Jin Hong Department of National Accounts-NBS Nov.30, 2009.
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA1 How do we see & use statistics? Government Communicators’ Meeting Sonia M. Jackson Director General Statistical Institute.
_________________________________________
Potentials for Nigeria’s Mortgage Market
Data Report: Orillia January 2018.
Presentation transcript:

Economic Development Framework for Interpreting Local Housing Markets in Small Town Canada Laura Ryser 1, Greg Halseth 1 & David Bruce 2 1 University of Northern British Columbia 2 Mount Allison University

Overview Rural Restructuring and Housing Linkages Defining Rural and Small Town Places Clustering Places by Economic Activity Framework for Understanding Change Case Studies –Port Clements, BC –Gold River, BC Discussion

Rural Restructuring and Housing Housing investments based on projected future Employers may face difficulty with housing shortages or lack of affordability Lenders / insurers concerned about ability to recover losses on property in default

Defining Rural and Small Town Places Definitions link to why / what people are exploring in rural and small town places Census Subdivisions (CSDs) –Relatively stable –Facilitate comparisons over time No MIZ and Weak MIZ used Places selected: –Population ,999 –First Nations reserves excluded

Distribution of Places by MIZ Designation & Population Group Population Group MIZ CodeTotal No MIZWeak MIZ 2,500-4,999 % within population group3.7% 96.3% ,499 % within population group47.3% 52.7%1,298 Total Count % within population group43.2% 56.8%1,432 Source: Derived from Rambeau, S. and K. Todd Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ) with Census Data. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

Clustering Places by Economic Activity Threshold: 25% of labour force employed in a sector or 25% age 65+ SIC=Standard Industrial Classification 1980 Economic sectors include: –agricultural –fishing –forestry –mining –tourism –manufacturing 1 Dynamic services = transportation & storage, communication & utility, wholesale, finance, real estate & business 2 Non-market services = government, education, health, and social services –dynamic services 1 –non-market services 2 –retirement –dual specialization –non-specialized

Models of Community Development Lucas (1971) –Construction –Recruitment –Transition –Maturity Bradbury (1988) –Winding down –Closure Halseth and Sullivan (2002) –Alternative futures

Framework for Understanding Change in the Local Economy Start-up Growth Plateau Decline Alternative Futures –Transform into another economic sector and grow –Transform and plateau at a similar level –Transform and decline –Function in same sector at a lower plateau –Decommission / closure

Socio-economic Characteristics to Indicate Change in Community Development Population Household Migration Income Labour Force Participation Housing

Summary of RST Population Change All Communities with 1991 Population 50-4,999, Source: Statistics Canada 2001, CategoryTotal Lost%Total Gained %N= All communities Agricultural Fishing Forestry Mining Tourism Manufacturing Dynamic Non-market Retirement Dual specialization Non-specialized

Case Studies I Purposeful sampling methodology 11 case studies reflect the 11 sectors Case studies drawn from database Triangulation –Newspaper archives, reports, gov’t publications, community websites, etc.

Case Studies II

Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline I Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities Decline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities Population Characteristics % Pop’n changeDecrease % Pop’n 0-14Decrease % Pop’n 15-24Decrease % Pop’n 25-44Decrease % Pop’n 45-64Increase % Pop’n 65+Increase Household Characteristics Change in % lone parent familiesIncrease Change in % one-person households Increase Change in % families with childrenDecrease Change in youth dependency ratioDecrease Change in elderly dependency ratioIncrease

Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline II Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities Decline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities Income Characteristics Change in % employment incomeDecrease Change in % gov’t transfer paymentsIncrease Change in % other incomeIncrease Labour Force Characteristics Change in % employed in forestry/manufDecrease Change in LF Participation rate 15+Decrease Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+ Decrease Change in % commute outside CSDIncrease Housing Characteristics Change in % built last 5 yearsDecrease % Change in average dwelling valueDecrease

Forestry: Port Clements Decline period: –1996: 44% employed in forestry –2001: 33.3% employed in forestry No MIZ status –42 kms to Masset –6 hour ferry ride to Prince Rupert

Port Clements I: Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities Port Clements Population Characteristics % Pop’n changeDecrease-7.5% % Pop’n 0-14Decrease-17.9% % Pop’n 15-24Decrease-6.7% % Pop’n 25-44Decrease-30.0% % Pop’n 45-64Increase12.5% % Pop’n 65+Increase16.7% Household Characteristics Change in % lone parent familiesIncrease14.4% Change in % one-person householdsIncrease4.6% Change in % families with childrenDecrease-15.2% Change in youth dependency ratioDecrease-2.1% Change in elderly dependency ratioIncrease2.5%

Port Clements II: Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities Port Clements Income Characteristics Change in % employment incomeDecrease0.9% Change in % gov’t transfer paymentsIncrease1.2% Change in % other incomeIncrease-2.5% Labour Force Characteristics Change in % employed in forestryDecrease-11.3% Change in LF Participation rate 15+Decrease-1.9% Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+Decrease11.7% Change in % commute outside CSDIncrease-36.5% Housing Characteristics Change in % built last 5 yearsDecrease-16.1% % Change in average dwelling valueDecrease18.5%

Port Clements: Context for Change Challenges –Isolation –Softwood Lumber Dispute –Crown land controlled by large corporations –Aboriginal land claims –Regionalization of services in Terrace

Port Clements: Context for Change Alternative Futures / Opportunities –Non-market service sector growing –Broadband Internet access –Off-shore oil and gas –Cinola mine site –Community forest

Manufacturing: Gold River Decline period: –1991: 47.1% employed in manufacturing –2001: 2.7% employed in manufacturing –2001: 28.9% employed in non-market services Weak MIZ status –90 kms from Campbell River

Gold River I: Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Manufact. Towns Gold River Population Characteristics % Pop’n changeDecrease-37.3% % Pop’n 0-14Decrease-52.9% % Pop’n 15-24Decrease-52.4% % Pop’n 25-44Decrease-56.3% % Pop’n 45-64Increase25.0% % Pop’n 65+Increase600.0% Household Characteristics Change in % lone parent familiesIncrease-2.3% Change in % one-person householdsIncrease7.1% Change in % families with childrenDecrease-26.5% Change in youth dependency ratioDecrease-10.1% Change in elderly dependency ratioIncrease9.7%

Gold River II: Socio-economic CharacteristicsDecline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities Gold River Income Characteristics Change in % employment incomeDecrease-15.6% Change in % gov’t transfer paymentsIncrease5.8% Change in % other incomeIncrease10.0% Labour Force Characteristics Change in % employed in manufacturingDecrease-44.4% Change in LF Participation rate 15+Decrease-10.2% Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+Decrease-0.5% Change in % commute outside CSDIncrease3.4% Housing Characteristics Change in % built last 5 yearsDecrease0.0% % Change in average dwelling valueDecrease-13.1%

Gold River: Context for Change Challenges –Poor newsprint prices –High fibre, transportation, and energy costs –High bank interest –Increase in stumpage rates –Economic slump in Asia –Mill closure

Gold River: Context for Change Alternative Future / Opportunities –Commercial / tourism fishing re-opened in 1997 –Gold River Housing Corporation – sale in 1999 –Provincial funding to maintain services / ease burden of lost tax base –Epcor power plant

Discussion I Housing is an important commodity and service Decisions must be taken with care and appropriate information Mortgage insurance providers, investors, and policy makers need to look beyond the current state of the economy

Discussion II Framework to understand trajectory of economic development in RST places 11 types of economic sectors Socio-economic characteristics provide mechanism for tracking change Case studies reasonably consistent with framework Inconsistencies demonstrate that places are unique – context matters

3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, Canada V2N 4Z9 Dr. Greg Halseth, Acting Director Phone: (250) Fax: (250) Community Development Institute (CDI)