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2 2 Economic aspects of migration and remigration Līga Menģelsone Director General THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EMIGRATION IN LATVIA AND THE OTHER BALTIC COUNTRIES: CHALLENGES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS Riga, 17 December 2012

3 3 Demography KEY CHALLENGES

4 4 Inequality and disparities KEY CHALLENGES

5 5 Growth and welfare KEY CHALLENGES

6 6 DEMOGRAPHY Rapidly ageing population Outflow of people – the labour force Increased shortage of labour as of 2015

7 7 OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE Outflows to other EU country: > 6% of Latvian citizens reside in other EU countries Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012

8 8 OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE Post-enlargement migration: “Low” senders Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012 In terms of numbers: SL, EE, LV, CZ, HU

9 9 OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE Stock of CEE citizens recently arrived (<3 years) in another EU MS, in 2011 compared to 2008 (age group 15-64), change in % Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012

10 OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE Age distribution of recent intra-EU movers (<7 years) from CEE countries, 2010 Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012

11 OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE Mobile workers from CEE are often (>30%) over-qualified for their job… Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012 Share of the workers being over-qualified for their job, by group of citizenship (2010), in %

12 OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE The distribution of EU8 nationals in the EU15 Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012

13 OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE Unemployment rates Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012

14 DEMOGRAPHY Negative impact on the Latvian economy, social system and wellbeing of the people Lack of skilled workers Long-term unemployment (45%) Mismatch of skills or expectations in respect to the vacancies available

15 INEQUALITY AND DISPARITIES Latvia: the country with the regional disparities within the country Latvia: Member State of the EU – the union with enormous inequalities and disparities

16 REGIONAL DISPARITIES Regional GDP per capita 1. variance,%, 2008 Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012

17 REGIONAL DISPARITIES Unemployment rate, 2011 Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012

18 REGIONAL DISPARITIES Population change in municipal areas Over the past 5 years, the population has grown around Riga Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012

19 REGIONAL DISPARITIES Latvia’s GDP is only 58% from the EU 27 average. Source: Eurostat, 2012

20 GROWTH AND WELFARE Accompanying policies to support development of the economy and rising competitiveness of the country EU: internal cohesion and level playing field Latvia: immigration and remigration policy In support to national aspirations

21 EMPLOYERS’ CONFEDERATION OF LATVIA

22  The largest employers’ organisation in Latvia  Partner in socioeconomic negotiations with Parliament, the Government and the Free Trade Union Confederation of Latvia (LBAS)  Unites 66 branch and regional employers’ organizations, as well as 96 enterprises that employ over 50 people  Members of the LDDK employ more than 37% of employees in Latvia (~70% GDP) EMPLOYERS’ CONFEDERATION OF LATVIA (LDDK)

23 MEMBERS

24 MISSION To represent the interests of Latvian employers for business competitiveness, the quality of work and life AREAS OF ACTIVITY Protecting the interests of business people and representing employers in social dialogue

25 PRIORITIES  Macroeconomic stabilisation  Predictable tax policies  Competitive business environment  Accessibility and quality of human capital  Effective public governance and structural reforms  Sustainable social security system  Strengthening of external economic relations

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