Multi Criteria Decision Making

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Presentation transcript:

Multi Criteria Decision Making Goal Programming MAUT, Multi Attribute Utility Theory, Keeney & Raiffa 1976 Europe: Electra (Roy et al.) USA : AHP (Saaty)

Examples of many criteria Location Planning Equipment Selection Supplier Selection Evaluation of applicants Ranking Projects Environmental Evaluation

Environmental Evaluation Criteria History Animals Vegetation Water System Landscape Recreation

Analytic Hierarchy Process Thomas Saaty 1975 Expert Choice Software See www.expertchoice.com >1500 published references on AHP Case Studies: Location Selecting suppliers Job candidates evaluation

AHP, pros & cons Pros: Cons: Doable Pairwise Comparison Consistency Index Cons: The AHP Scale (1-9) Many alternatives

AHP methodology 1. Criteria are compared by importance => weights 2. Alternatives are scored against each criteria 3. Final index for each alternative is calculated from weights and scores

The AHP Scale 1 Equal importance 3 Moderately more important 5 Strongly more important 7 Very strongly more important 9 Extremely more important

Pairwise Comparison Wi = Weight of criteria i W2/W1 W2/W2 W2/Wn A = Wn/W1 Wn/W2 Wn/Wn

Consistency Check 1. Compute A*w’ 2. M = (1/n)*i(A*w’)i/w’i 3. CI = (M – n)/(n – 1) 4. CI/RI > 0,1 => Inconsistency where n = 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 => RI = 0 0,58 0,90 1,12 1,24 1,32 1,41

Pareto Efficient Frontier NPV of Profit Alt 2 Alt 5 Alt 3 Alt 4 Alt 1 Environment Impact Index

AHP Example: Locating an Aluminium Smelter in Iceland Criteria: Labour, community and service Harbour, roads and infrastructure Power, closeness to a power plant Alternatives: Keilisnes Eyjafjörður Reyðarfjörður See Excel-document

Master Plan for Hydro and Geothermal Energy Based on the best available scientific information Open for democratic public involvement Large number of proposed power projects were evaluated Ministry of Industry, in co-operation with the Ministry of the Environment

Steering Committee supported by about 50 experts Working Group I will evaluate what impact proposed power projects will have on Nature, landscape, geological formations, vegetative cover, flora and fauna, as well as cultural heritage and ancient monuments. Working Group II will evaluate the impact on outdoor life, agriculture, revegitation, fishing in rivers and lakes, and hunting. Working Group III will evaluate the impact proposed power projects can have on economic activity, employment and regional development. Working Group IV will identify potential power projects, both hydro and geothermal, and carry out technical as well as economic evaluation of the projects.