The Ins and Outs of Migration Population Trends and Policies

Three Americas The Rising Significance ofRegions William H. Frey

The Sunbelt Population Trends and Policies "America's suburbs," 1/5 th of the population."America's suburbs," 1/5 th of the population. 13 states, located primarily in the Southeast and West, 24% growth in the 1990s.13 states, located primarily in the Southeast and West, 24% growth in the 1990s. During the 1990s domestic inmigrants outpaced foreign inmigrants by five to one; and captured 79% of the nation's White population gain.During the 1990s domestic inmigrants outpaced foreign inmigrants by five to one; and captured 79% of the nation's White population gain. 9 of the 10 states that gained White married couples with children in the 1990s.9 of the 10 states that gained White married couples with children in the 1990s. New retirees, a group whose numbers will explode in the next decade.New retirees, a group whose numbers will explode in the next decade.

The Ins and Outs of Migration Population Trends and Policies

The Melting Pot Population Trends and Policies 9 states, 74% of the combined Hispanic and Asian populations but only 41% of the total population.9 states, 74% of the combined Hispanic and Asian populations but only 41% of the total population. Grew by 13% in the 1990s, dominated by immigrants, with Asians and Hispanics accounting for 76% of the gains.Grew by 13% in the 1990s, dominated by immigrants, with Asians and Hispanics accounting for 76% of the gains. Non -White, non-Black races additional 17% of growth.Non -White, non-Black races additional 17% of growth. 6 states with greatest immigrant gains in the 1990s.6 states with greatest immigrant gains in the 1990s. Lost White population during the 1990s.Lost White population during the 1990s.

The Heartland Population Trends and Policies 28 states and the District of Columbia contained 39% of the U.S. population.28 states and the District of Columbia contained 39% of the U.S. population. Modest population growth.Modest population growth. 81% White and 12% Black, with Blacks primarily located in industrial cities.81% White and 12% Black, with Blacks primarily located in industrial cities. In the 1990s, only about 14% of the nation's Asian and Hispanic gains.In the 1990s, only about 14% of the nation's Asian and Hispanic gains.

Urban, Suburban, and Rural Population Trends and Policies The new regional "White flight" from the Melting Pot to the New Sunbelt.The new regional "White flight" from the Melting Pot to the New Sunbelt. The Melting Pot provides intensity, ethnic diversity, and close contact.The Melting Pot provides intensity, ethnic diversity, and close contact. The New Sunbelt offers a quieter setting, large lot sizes, and local control.The New Sunbelt offers a quieter setting, large lot sizes, and local control. Large swaths of the Heartland now replicate the older, more conservative rural areas of the past.Large swaths of the Heartland now replicate the older, more conservative rural areas of the past.

Prospects and Challenges Population Trends and Policies Within the Melting Pot states, there is already evidence of greater interracial and intercultural dating and marriage, and residential coexistence.Within the Melting Pot states, there is already evidence of greater interracial and intercultural dating and marriage, and residential coexistence. These trends imply that an important national challenge for the present century will be to find ways to bridge these new regional divisions among communities with different demographics, lifestyles, and values but probably similar aspirations.These trends imply that an important national challenge for the present century will be to find ways to bridge these new regional divisions among communities with different demographics, lifestyles, and values but probably similar aspirations.

Components of Population Change BirthsRegistered* DeathsRegistered* In-migrantsNot Registered* Out-migrantsNot Registered* *Refers to U.S. Vital Statistics System Population Trends and Policies

The Demographic Balancing Equation Population Today + Births - Deaths ═ + In-migrants - Out-migrants Population Yesterday “natural increase” “net migration” Population Trends and Policies

Migration and the Census Migrants and Movers Residence 5 years earlier plus location of current residence equals the extent of residential mobility and the resulting redistribution of the population across the various counties, states, metropolitan areas, and regions of the country. Population Trends and Policies

Migration or Mobility Migrants and Movers Same house - includes all people 5 years old and over who did not move during the 5 years as well as those who had moved but by Census Day had returned to their 1995 residence. Different house - includes people who lived in the United States 5 years earlier but lived in a different house or apartment from the one they occupied on Census Day. These movers are then further subdivided according to the type of move. Population Trends and Policies

Migration or Mobility Migrants and Movers Different House, Same County – Intracounty Mover Different County, Same State - Intercounty Migrant, Intrastate Mover Different State, Same Region - Interstate Migrant, Intraregion Mover Different Region, Same Country - Interregional Migrant, Intranational Mover Different Country, Same Planet (From Abroad) – International Migrant, Intraplanetary Mover Population Trends and Policies

Migration and Migrants "Inmigrants" are generally defined as those people who moved into an area. In some tabulations, movers from abroad may be included in the number of inmigrants; in others, only movers within the United States are included. "Outmigrants" are people who moved out of a specific area to some other place in the United States. Movers who left the United States are not available to be included in any tabulations. "Net migration" is calculated by subtracting the number of outmigrants from the number of inmigrants. The net migration for the area is net inmigration if the result is positive and net outmigration if the result is negative. Population Trends and Policies

Missing Migration The number of people who were living in a different house 5 years earlier is somewhat less than the total number of moves during the 5-year period. Some people in the same house at the two dates had moved during the 5-year period but by the time of the census had returned to their 1995 residence. Other people who were living in a different house had made one or more intermediate moves. For similar reasons, the number of people living in a different county, metropolitan area, or state, or the number moving between nonmetropolitan areas, may be understated. Population Trends and Policies

The Demographic Balancing Equation Population Trends and Policies

The Net Migration Game “Where am I?” “Why am I here?” Population Trends and Policies

Net Migration by Age, 1940s-1990s Missoula County, Montana Population Trends and Policies

Net Migration by Age, 1940s-1990s Yellowstone County, Montana Population Trends and Policies

Applied Demography Net Migration by Age, 1940s-1990s Ravalli County, Montana

Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration Most inmigrants come from nearby Most outmigrants settle nearby Most principal origins of inmigrants are the same as the principal destinations of outmigrants Ravenstein, E. G., “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 48 Part II (June): Ravenstein, E. G., “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 52 (June): Population Trends and Policies

Ravenstein, E. G., “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 48 Part II (June): Ravenstein, E. G., “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 52 (June): Population Trends and Policies