© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years on : 21 st century global temperatures evolving as predicted in the 20 th century Global temperature response to greenhouse gases and aerosols Solid: climate model simulation (HadCM2) Dashed: recalibrated prediction using data to August 1996 (Myles Allen, Stott, Mitchell, Schnur, Delworth, 2000) Red : Observed decadal mean temperature

© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years on : Regional capability of climate models greatly improved

© Crown copyright Met Office Seasonal forecasts have regional skill Example : Forecast of onset of 2011 short rains (Oct-Dec) over Greater Horn of Africa, issued August, 2011 Probabilistic forecast Observations Graham et al, Clivar Exchanges

© Crown copyright Met Office Next 10 years Several-fold increase in resolution Leading to resolution of synoptic features eg hurricanes Improvements in features crucial to regional climate such as blocking Better use of observations to improve model capability and quantify uncertainties Improved physical and dynamical basis of models Enhanced complexity Improvements in methods to communicate climate model results and their uncertainties

© Crown copyright Met Office Why ? Climate services for Monitoring Attribution Prediction Attribution as the bridge between monitoring and early warning

© Crown copyright Met Office Why ? Attribution of extreme weather and climate- related events as the bridge between monitoring and early warning Probabilistic Levels of confidence based on reliability assessments Robust Timely WCRP Position Paper (Stott et al, 2012)

© Crown copyright Met Office Early warning Example : ENSO and Australian Floods Attribution of very wet signals for NE Australia to La Niña Increased risk predicted several months in advance BoM, 2010 Flooding at Toowoomba, Australia, 2011 Potential for adaptation Met Office, 2010