Kentucky Population Growth Does It Matter to Real Estate? Michael Price Kentucky State Data Center University of Louisville 2013 Real Estate Economic Forecast.

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Presentation transcript:

Kentucky Population Growth Does It Matter to Real Estate? Michael Price Kentucky State Data Center University of Louisville 2013 Real Estate Economic Forecast The Olmsted Louisville, Kentucky February 7, 2013

Population (in households) Households Housing Units Household Size Occupancy-Vacancy Kentucky State Data Center

Kentucky Trends Kentucky State Data Center Housing Units Households

Kentucky Trends Percent Change

Kentucky Decennial Growth Rates 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s Kentucky State Data Center

Kentucky Vacancy Rates (Percent of total housing units not occupied ) Kentucky State Data Center

Source: William H. Frey New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States America’s New Regions

The New Sunbelt Melting Pot America The Heartland Diversity states Slow growth states Migration growth states America’s New Demographic Regions

Source: William Frey. Colorado Georgia ImmigrationDomestic MigrationNatural Increase New Sunbelt New Sunbelt: Examples

Source: William Frey. California New York ImmigrationDomestic MigrationNatural Increase Melting Pot: Examples Melting Pot

Source: William Frey & Michael Price Pennsylvania ImmigrationDomestic MigrationNatural Increase Heartland: Examples Heartland Kentucky

Population Growth Rates Percent Change

Population Growth

Jefferson (47,492) Fayette (35,291) Boone (32,820) Warren (21,270) Oldham (14,138) Kentucky County Population Growth Kentucky State Data Center

Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) CBSA’s are defined by counties. Metropolitan Statistical Areas are based on Urbanized Areas of 50,000 or more and are comprised of the host county plus neighboring counties linked by commuting. Micropolitan Statistical Areas are based on Urban Clusters of 10,000-49,999. They are made up of the host county and neighboring counties linked by commuting Combined Statistical Areas are comprised of two or more contiguous Metropolitan Statistical Areas and/or Micropolitan Statistical Areas. Kentucky State Data Center

Total Population Distribution 2010 Kentucky State Data Center

Population Growth Kentucky State Data Center

Kentucky Population Growth Kentucky State Data Center

Per 1,000 person Kentucky Components of Change

Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas Kentucky State Data Center I-65 I-75 Corridor

Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas Percent Change Kentucky State Data Center I-65 I-75 Corridor

Population Growth in Kentucky Micro Areas Kentucky State Data Center

Kentucky Components of Population Growth by Race and Hispanic Origin:

Because household size is stabilizing, population growth is critical to the demand for housing. Kentucky’s metro and micro areas in I- 65 I-75 Corridor have robust population growth, fueled by in-migration, especially by minorities.

Kentucky State Data Center (502)