Animated Butterfly CDR Dylan Schmorrow, MSC, USN Program Director, OSD HSCB Modeling Program Biosystems Assistant Director, Human Systems Staff Specialist Office of the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (S&T) HSCB Modeling

2 So… Who are we? What are we doing? Why are we doing it? Where are we going? How will we get there?

Why? A new Research and Development (R&D) program to develop a science base and associated technologies for HSCB modeling. Vertically integrated across three categories of RDT&E funding: Applied Research (PE D8Z), Advanced Technology Development (PE D8Z), and Advanced Component Development & Prototypes (PE D8Z). The military capability needs being addressed center on enablement of modeling for Irregular Warfare (IW) and Security, Stability, Transition, and Reconstruction Operations (SSTRO) and on using computational models to support operations analysis, intelligence analysis, training and joint experimentation. The overarching goal is to provide DoD and the US Government with the ability to understand and effectively operate in human/social/culture terrains inherent to non-conventional warfare missions.

Who? The HSCB Program has established several DoD-wide coordination venues: Program Execution IPT (PE-IPT), Senior Technical Experts Group (S-TEG) Users Group (HSCB-UG), In addition, elements of the HSCB Program will be coordinated within federal interagency forums established by the National Science and Technology Council.

5 What? The HSCB program will integrate and demonstrate a validated, human terrain forecasting modeling approach that enables the examination of second, third, and higher order effects of kinetic and non-kinetic actions within a theater in support of Effects Based Operations; demonstrate the feasibility of integrating HSCB process and software into strategic level conflict resolution and regional stability planning tools; and integrate and demonstrate training technologies to deliver socio-cultural understanding and skills needed for individuals and small units in current and future military operations.

Where in OSD?

How Organized? 7

NDU Recommendations NDU sponsored workshop held July 2008 with 120 participants HSCB modeling needs were classified into twelve interrelated categories Data Needs, Definition Needs, Measures of Merit Needs, Theory Needs, Basic Research Needs, Tools Needs, Representation in Tools Needs, Prediction Needs, Design of Experiment Needs, VV&A Needs, Education/Training Needs, Outreach Needs NDU-defined needs guided HSCB BAA development, IPT formation, and project selection HSCB Modeling Program implemented NDU recommendations as part of awards, BAA development, systems engineering task, and/or core IPT processes

ONR and CTTSO

ERDEC & CERDEC ERDEC-TEC – Will principally focus on socio-cultural data model development; the hybrid modeling associated with socio-cultural and geospatial data; transition to tactical users and SOF; and will provide the government sponsored testbed for operational feasibility demonstrations in support of BAA respondents and HSCB-related technologies. CERDEC/I2WD – Will principally focus on the implementation of the COMPOEX framework to support HSCB technology transition to DCGS-A and select other Army systems; and will research and develop an HSCB-PMESII Modeling Framework to ensure early adaptation and transition of advanced HSCB-PMESII modeling technologies to the DCGS-A Architecture and other Army Intelligence Architectures.

ERDEC & CERDEC ERDEC-TEC – Will principally focus on socio-cultural data model development; the hybrid modeling associated with socio-cultural and geospatial data; transition to tactical users and SOF; and will provide the government sponsored testbed for operational feasibility demonstrations in support of BAA respondents and HSCB-related technologies. CERDEC/I2WD – Will principally focus on the implementation of the COMPOEX framework to support HSCB technology transition to DCGS-A and select other Army systems; and will research and develop an HSCB-PMESII Modeling Framework to ensure early adaptation and transition of advanced HSCB-PMESII modeling technologies to the DCGS-A Architecture and other Army Intelligence Architectures.

MITRE Directly assists in the development of technology investment plans, selection of investment technologies and assist in the assessment and transition of selected technologies. MITRE will also: Develop and/or integrate, & implement a hybrid modeling framework (in conjunction with government partners) and test protocol to support the evaluation of BAA respondent technologies and conduct technology integration experiments Plan and conduct Technical Integration Experiments, Operational Feasibility Experiments and Operational Feasibility Demonstrations. Support transition HSCB technologies to programs of record. Conduct social science analysis and outreach to leverage emerging technologies and practices Collect and maintain operational requirements. Perform other systems engineering activities as directed.

HSCB Domain Challenge  Other organizations in DoD are implementing technologies in the HSCB domain because of a critical need  Who in the room knows what DoD is doing across the board in this domain?  Who knows some of what DoD is doing in this domain?  Who knows what the following organizations or projects have done or are doing? CENTCOM J9 Strategic Assessments, NIKE, JIEDDO, SKOPE, JS J5, Mat-HT/HTS, OSD PA&E, EUCOM/PACOM Strategic Communications, etc. Are they doing research or implementation in this field How do we get ahead of this curve, do the research that needs to get done, leverage what has already been done, and directly help these DoD implementation leaders and other programs?

Answers  There are no easy answers, however While HSCB will pursue 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 research, we need to determine how constantly assess how the research will benefit DoD and how some of it will transition We will establish projects and facilities that: Conduct technology integration experiments using your research Integrate promising research into meta-projects that examine research in more operational ways/environments; determine what is ready Transition research and/or meta-projects What should you do? Ensure that you participate in experiments Be prepared to answer how your research can interface with/pass data across program.

Transition Challenge  If transition is the key, how does your great research come together to help the DoD and the warfighter?  How does your research project transition? To who? Why? How?  How does your research project come together with others to make and end to solution that is transitionable? What are your inputs? What are your outputs? What are your assumptions? Where do you get your data? Who do you assume the user to be (E4 or PhD?) Are you designing a system that a “real” user can use?

Transformation Challenges  Transparency in HSCB models and tools Ever-broader range of prospective users Non-specialists need to understand what’s “under the hood” Build confidence across user communities that models are valid, appropriate, and relevant And that models/tools can add real value to operational programs  Fundamental and essential multi-disciplinary collaboration Relevant to theory, method, data, hermeneutics, and technology  Generalizability Multiple domains, environments; Are current approaches adequate to address the Strategic – Operational – Tactical spectrum?  Meta- and contextual issues, e.g., Education and training: for user communities; What about the research community (e.g., to facilitate cross-disciplinary exploration)? Other investments?

Way Ahead  While HSCB will pursue 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 research, we need to determine how constantly assess how the research will benefit DoD and how some of it will transition We will establish projects and facilities that: Conduct technology integration experiments using your research and others Integrate promising research into meta-projects that examine research in more operational ways and environments and determine what is ready for transition Transition research and/or meta-projects to programs of record, COCOMs, or other DoD What should you do? Ensure that you participate in experiments when asked Understand the domain in which you propose to insert your technology Be prepared to answer how your research can interface with, take data from, or pass data to another project’s technology. Show technical progress in assessable six month increments

Random Thoughts It’s BIG “R”; not little “r” Big License Fees Bad. Open Architectures Good. Like “Survivor” Play Well With Others SBIRS/STTRS Publish Two Hats Showcase “other” work Most important  BE RELEVANT!!!