LOCAL SCALE SOCIO- ECONOMIC SCENARIOS FOR CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN NORTHERN NIGERIA A. Nyong, A. Berthé, D. Dabi AF:92

Introduction Climate variability and change occur in a social and economic context that contributes to determining impacts, socioeconomic conditions may mediate or alter these impacts. It is therefore necessary to describe these socio- economic conditions in order to assess these impacts. The central place of socioeconomic conditions in assessing impacts and adaptations requires that they be considered and generally projected into the future. Future developments are shaped by deep-seated drivers of economic and social change, by new trends and innovations, and by larger-scale and unexpected ‘sideswipes’ with a major impact.

What is a Scenario? A coherent, internally consistent, and plausible description of a possible future state of the world (IPCC, 1994). Does not aim to predict, but are designed to give representations of possible futures. Generally have a qualitative ‘storyline’ element associated with quantitative indicators.

Why Are We Doing This? Several attempts have been made at developing socio- economic scenarios covering longer timescales and at large and regional scales. Socio-economic impacts are usually location-specific. Most scenarios cover large-spatial and longer-time scales and rely on large scale aggregation that tends to mask climate extremes and variations that are crucially important in assessing vulnerability and adaptation in specific locations and sectors. Necessary to develop local scale socioeconomic scenarios, particularly in developing countries, that characterize socioeconomic conditions and prospects in the near term and at local scales, where these variations are more important than average trends.

Study Area Research Focus: Assessment of the Impacts of Droughts on the Livelihoods of Poor Rural Households in the West African Sahel

Drivers of Socio-economic Development and Household Livelihood Systems in Northern Nigeria. identified four main dimensions of change:  human demography,  the nature of governance and policy,  social and cultural values, and  the composition and rate of economic growth.

Human Demography Three important demographic features - population growth, rural-rural migration and urbanization.  High birth rates greatly influenced by cultural and social factors and traditional patterns of thought and behavior.  A very youthful population structure, more than 45 percent of the population is under the age of 15.  The prospect of continuing high population growth rates will seriously hinder socioeconomic development prospects and threaten food security.

Human Demography 2 Sustained rural-rural migration puts undue pressure on land resources largely resulting in communal conflicts between pastoralists and sedentary farmers, further weakening the economy of the already impoverished rural areas. Rapid and unplanned urbanization contributes to reinforce the likelihood of prospective negative effects of population growth on development.

Social and Cultural Values Common property with a strong community cohesion and solidarity. ‘Modernization’ and ‘Development’ have disrupted the functioning of these traditional societies. No incentives for food production for local markets as the ‘market economy’ now drives cultivation of export crops.

Governance and Policy Centralized system of governance with central control over all local activities for reasons that seem sound—weak local capacity, fear of local corruption, communal and ethnic insurrection etc. However, this system of governance has resulted in severe fiscal and political crises. Decentralized Governance that seeks to empower the people as a part of the effort at democratizing state institutions and initiate/support local self-governing structures.  The vertical transfer of responsibilities and resources from central to local governments,  The development of horizontal networks between local governments and local non-state actors: the private sector, civil society, and international organizations.  synergies between these institutions lead to innovations and higher levels of productivity as disconnected structures are networked into a common framework at the local level.

Economic Development Economic growth in rural northern Nigeria revolves around small scale agriculture. Its slow development and hence, food production caused by both climatic and non-climatic factors: climatic variation, poor soil quality, poor economic, political, and social conditions are responsible. Small-scale farmers have almost no access to training and agricultural extension services that would address their problems. Little chances of acquiring much-needed credits for purchasing inputs to increase production, such as chemical fertilizer, seed, and agricultural implements.

Economic Development 2 Improved seed varieties, fertilizers, and plant protection products are part of a "technological package" used almost exclusively for export crops such as cotton and maize. Export production, introduced in colonial times, continues to have a much higher priority than cultivation of food crops for home consumption. No incentive for farmers to increase production because the chances of selling their produce on the market are poor. Resources for providing extension services, fertilizer, and mechanization are rarely allocated to farmers who grow food crops.

Scenario Framework Review of Existing Socio-Economic Scenarios  Two-scenario framework of high and low, and are usually seen as being overly narrow.  Three-scenario framework which includes a baseline and two storylines with and without adaptation policy interventions. Often criticized because they often lead to the identification of one ‘best guess’.  A framework that is defined by the four quadrants of a two- dimensional matrix (IPCC SRES). Main advantage is that the approach supports a degree of analytical rigor while not reducing the transparency of the process for broad groups of participants. It also presents a compromise regarding the number of different scenarios that should be used.

Scenario Framework We defined our framework conditions by using two broad dimensions, using social and cultural systems and, institution and governance to be foundational determinants of future change. Obvious that demographic processes are greatly influenced by cultural and social factors and traditional patterns of thought and behavior. Economic development and growth are hinged upon political reforms and systems of governance. Institutional effectiveness and social values are key determinants of the effectiveness of coping strategies for adapting to climate change. They determine adaptive capacity and hence the vulnerability of socioeconomic systems. They are critical in any assessment of the implications of climate change for development, equity, and sustainability.

Framework Scenario 3 The horizontal values dimension captures alternative developments in core social and economic values as they might be represented in choices by the local population. The vertical governance dimension aims to show alternative structures of political and economic power and decision-making. The future of governance at the national and regional levels will be influenced to a great extent by the degree of decentralization of power. CENTRALIZATION INDIVIDUALISM Culture and value systems COMMON PROPERTY Institution and Governance DECENTRALIZATION National Enterpris e Local Stewardshi p Regional Sustainability Regiona l Markets

Storylines The National Enterprise  The capacity to adapt to climate change in the agricultural sector is constrained by poor economic conditions in the sector and low levels of investment.  Little concern about social equity or protection of the environment. Land degradation increases as people no longer pay attention to long term carrying capacity of the land. This, with unsustainable use of chemical fertilizers, leads to reduction in food production and hence threaten food security. These will seriously threaten the livelihood system of the majority of the population.  Population numbers remain high with large household sizes. Agriculture is no longer lucrative and agricultural labour force declines. There is increased migration of the working population to the cities in search of non-farm employment.  Prevailing social and political values are such that people concentrate on meeting their own needs through private consumption.  Greater income disparities. Those who can afford it increasingly make use of private education as the quality of state education declines.

Storylines 2 Local Stewardship  Under this scenario, economic development and resource use is controlled so that fragile ecosystems are protected through communal efforts.  However, there is some threat from the expansion of agriculture into more marginal lands. Extensive agriculture focuses on small-scale, diversified and organic production providing an alternative route to high adaptive capacity in the agricultural sector.  Economic growth is not an absolute political priority. Instead, there is a strong emphasis on equity, social inclusion and democratic values.  The conservation of resources and the protection of the natural environment are strong political objectives. The promotion of these social values becomes the most important task of public institutions which successfully turn community values into practice through purposeful social and economic planning.  Decision-making power is devolved downwards in a more federal system of government. Political systems are transparent, participatory and democratic at the local level.  Population growth continues at a slower rate and the trend towards larger households is reversed and the rate of urbanization is reduced.

Storylines 3 Regional Markets  Adaptive capacity in the agriculture sector is high because technology offers the opportunity to introduce new varieties and techniques in response to climatic changes.  Due to modernization, people are primarily concerned with personal consumption and their material well-being. The market, as opposed to state institutions, is presumed to best deliver these goals. There is a strong desire for mobility. People are less tied to locality and are more concerned with creating personal objectives and identities.  There is a declining role for governments in the provision of healthcare, education and other public services. Private sector provision becomes the norm. Privatization leads to increasing inequalities in access and quality of social services, creating significant new social tensions. Access to high quality education becomes very uneven, with the wealthier enjoying high standards and the quality of public education declining.  It does not promote interest in local culture, social equity or environmental issues. This scenario is characterized by liberalized regional national and international markets, the dismantling of trade barriers and the retreat of the state, leaving a greater role for the private sector.  Incomes are higher, with a greater disparity, and greater economic growth. High incomes and individualist values reinforce the existing trend towards smaller households and a generally declining population.

Storylines 4 Regional Sustainability  Technology allows agriculture to adapt to climate change, but there are tighter controls on the use of genetically modified crops for example than under the ‘world markets’ scenario. Consensus about sustainable development is transmitted through participative, open democracies with a growing role for local governments within more federal political system.  The policy-style is characterized by a strong partnership between government, industry and non-governmental organizations. There is a strive for a balance between social values and economic development. A welfare system is developed through the implementation of various policy alleviation programs, which provide an adequate safety net for disadvantaged groups. There is equal access to high quality public education which reinforces social and environmental values.  Resource intensive agriculture tends to decline and the economy is increasingly export-oriented, with mobile, highly skilled labour force.  Increasing incomes tend to reduce average household size but this factor is balanced by the strengthening of community values. Household size therefore declines slowly and household numbers grow at historic rates.

Socioeconomic Indicators The number of socioeconomic variables of potential interest is very large. Because of this and because of problems in making long-term forecasts, we have identified variables that are particularly important to the socioeconomic condition and prospects of our sector and study area. Socioeconomic conditions and prospects are in many respects intangible and complex, and cannot be measured directly. In the face of such complexity, a useful and defensible strategy is the use of indicators that require massive simplification. Some of the indicators that stakeholders adjudged to be very significant to them are presented in Table.

INDICATORSIndexMeasured/Calculated asExpected Impact DEMOGRAPHIC Dependency ratioLabour units/consumer units (inverted) Household SizeNumber of people in household Educational background of the household head Value given to highest school level attained by the head of the household Quality of householdNumber of able persons/ number of disabled and or sick persons in the household (inverted) ECONOMIC Livestock ownershipTropical Livestock Units/consumer units Acreage under cultivation Hectares/consumer units Livelihood diversification Weighted number of non-agricultural income generating activities/consumer units Annual cash incomeIn 1000 Naira/consumer units Drought PreparednessValue given to use of drought resistant crops and livestock and receives drought related information and advise Self-sufficiency in food production Number of years surplus foodstuffs were sold minus number of years foodstuffs were bought in the past 10 years SOCIAL Family and Social Networks Value given to strength of family and social networks. TECHNOLOGY Degree of mechanization of agriculture Number of farm equipment and machinery used

What Next? Assemble relevant data Choose important socioeconomic determinants and generate quantitative scenarios for 2025 and Do an impact assessment for the chosen time slices.