1 10/17/2015 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology National Weather Service Science and Technology Infusion Plan Introduction National Weather Service Science and Technology Infusion Plan Introduction

2 10/17/2015 Outline Background Vision Keys to S&T Infusion Teamwork Process Architecture Plans Background Vision Keys to S&T Infusion Teamwork Process Architecture Plans

3 10/17/2015 Successfully Completed Modernization and Restructuring Our products and services have improved Performance is leveling off Users still have needs S&T continues advancing How will NWS respond and continue improving? Successfully Completed Modernization and Restructuring Our products and services have improved Performance is leveling off Users still have needs S&T continues advancing How will NWS respond and continue improving? Background NWS Planning for the Future Tornado Warnings

4 10/17/2015 Current 47 Minutes Vision >2 Hour Flash Floods Vision Vastly Improved Forecasts and Warnings in Our Core Service Areas Tornadoes Current 10 Minutes Vision >30 Minutes Winter Storms Current 13 Hours Vision >1 Day Current 20 Hours Vision >2 Days Current 16 Minutes Vision >1 Hour Thunder Storms Hurricanes Notional Warning Lead Time Improvements

5 10/17/2015 Vision In a Seamless Database of Information Observations Analyses Forecasts Uncertainty Information Outlooks, Watches, Warnings Interrogation and mining tools allow users to exploit database for any application or purpose Observations Analyses Forecasts Uncertainty Information Outlooks, Watches, Warnings Interrogation and mining tools allow users to exploit database for any application or purpose

6 10/17/2015 Vision Strengthening Links and Building New Programs in Non-Traditional Service Areas Air Quality Forecasts Fisheries Impact Forecasts Space Weather Forecasts Coastal Erosion Forecasts Water Quality Forecasts

7 10/17/2015 Air Quality Forecasts Vision What It Will Take to Get There Know and Anticipate Customer Needs. Evolve Operational Concepts Train Workforce Infuse Proven Science and Technology Know and Anticipate Customer Needs. Evolve Operational Concepts Train Workforce Infuse Proven Science and Technology Current Radar Upgraded Radar IFPS

8 10/17/2015 S&T Infusion Objective Improve performance through a disciplined incorporation of new ideas, procedures, and capabilities (Dorman Report, 1999) Improve performance through a disciplined incorporation of new ideas, procedures, and capabilities (Dorman Report, 1999)

9 10/17/2015 S&T Infusion Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork To effect transition Define Process To establish thread to operations early Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds To streamline transition Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans To set direction and add discipline Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork To effect transition Define Process To establish thread to operations early Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds To streamline transition Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans To set direction and add discipline Key Elements

10 10/17/2015 Teamwork NWS: Identifies operational S&T shortfalls Evaluates S&T opportunities Conducts applied R&D – operational applications Inserts proven new S&T into operations Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations NWS: Identifies operational S&T shortfalls Evaluates S&T opportunities Conducts applied R&D – operational applications Inserts proven new S&T into operations Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities

11 10/17/2015 Teamwork NWS S&T Partners: Develop/find R&D Identify opportunities, make data/info available early Respond to NWS operational shortfalls Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T including research data into operations Assist as consultant in maintenance of operational capability Lead planning and budgeting for R&D NWS S&T Partners: Develop/find R&D Identify opportunities, make data/info available early Respond to NWS operational shortfalls Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T including research data into operations Assist as consultant in maintenance of operational capability Lead planning and budgeting for R&D S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities

12 10/17/2015 Process Establish coordinated “thread” to operations early – including envisioned applications Develop joint plans – R&D to Operations −Start at operations, work backwards and iterate −Coordinate investment strategies upfront −Continuously review and update Execution Scheduled and frequent communication and coordination −Design and readiness reviews Well understood decision points and criteria Establish coordinated “thread” to operations early – including envisioned applications Develop joint plans – R&D to Operations −Start at operations, work backwards and iterate −Coordinate investment strategies upfront −Continuously review and update Execution Scheduled and frequent communication and coordination −Design and readiness reviews Well understood decision points and criteria R&D Research Demonstration Operational Development Deployment

13 10/17/2015 USWRP THORpex SOOs/DOOs Field Science Universities Aviation Water Management Drought Preparedn ess Drought Preparedn ess Marine Safety Emergency Management NWS Field Process User Needs R&D Required? Solution Analysis Deployment Solution Selection Reqirements Validation Solution Development S&T Idea Potential NWS Use? NWS Endorsed R&D Positive R&D Evalation? Positive Demo Evaluation? Operational Requirement? NWS Endorsed Demo Requirements Pull YES NO Time YES Opportunities Push

14 10/17/2015 Process Continuously Review and Update Time PerformancePerformance 2008 Baseline Required Capability For Operations Projected Progress Agreed Upon Boundaries Stop Project Accelerate Transition

15 10/17/2015 Architecture Prediction systems Vision: Compatible research and operational models Testbeds Vision: Develop and test new S&T in laboratory settings - When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations Prediction systems Vision: Compatible research and operational models Testbeds Vision: Develop and test new S&T in laboratory settings - When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations Commonality/Compatibility is Key

16 10/17/2015 Architecture Prediction Systems Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model State-of-the-science, common infrastructure system Supporting advanced regional- to local-scale operational weather forecasting applications and research More effective insertion of research into operations and coordination of national operational mission capabilities. Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA Effort extensible to global and climate systems Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model State-of-the-science, common infrastructure system Supporting advanced regional- to local-scale operational weather forecasting applications and research More effective insertion of research into operations and coordination of national operational mission capabilities. Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA Effort extensible to global and climate systems

17 10/17/2015 Compatible Architecture to support End-to-End R-O Process Provide Research Community “Real” Operational Environment Allow Demonstration, Validation, etc. of New Science Before Major Investment Allow Research on Difficult Operational Problems Provide training opportunities for current and future scientists Compatible Architecture to support End-to-End R-O Process Provide Research Community “Real” Operational Environment Allow Demonstration, Validation, etc. of New Science Before Major Investment Allow Research on Difficult Operational Problems Provide training opportunities for current and future scientists Architecture Testbeds ResearchOperations Test Improved operational NWP More Timely Infusion of New S&T Reduced Cost Improved operational NWP More Timely Infusion of New S&T Reduced Cost

18 10/17/2015 Distributed Testbed System Vision NWS Aviation Coastal Marine Severe Weather Observations NWP Climate Satellite DA Hurricanes Universities, Labs, Other Universities, Labs, Other Universities, Labs, Other Universities, Labs, Other Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation 2003 AO planned Joint Hurricane Testbed 8 funded projects Joint Hurricane Testbed 8 funded projects Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Focused on 0-24 h W&F Problems Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Focused on 0-24 h W&F Problems Planned

19 10/17/2015 Plan NWS Today: Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS Requirements driven - More service pull than science push NWS Next: What NWS will evolve to by 2012 NWS After Next: NWS of 20 or more years from now S&T Opportunities driven - More push than pull (from Dorman Report, 99) NWS Today: Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS Requirements driven - More service pull than science push NWS Next: What NWS will evolve to by 2012 NWS After Next: NWS of 20 or more years from now S&T Opportunities driven - More push than pull (from Dorman Report, 99) Three Timeframes

20 10/17/2015 Plan Advances Must Occur Along Forecast Process Observe Analyze and Predict Disseminate & Provide Information Access Disseminate & Provide Information Access Produce Products & Provide Services Produce Products & Provide Services

21 10/17/2015 Plan Advances Must be Linked to Results and Worth the Cost S&T Advances üObservations üNumerical Prediction Forecast Applications IT Architecture Dissemination/Access S&T Advances üObservations üNumerical Prediction Forecast Applications IT Architecture Dissemination/Access Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc. Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts Flood and River Predictions Results

22 10/17/2015 Plan Performance Measure Based “End-to-End” Research to operations Observations to delivering information to users Integrated across service areas Reflect reasonable budget expectations Performance Measure Based “End-to-End” Research to operations Observations to delivering information to users Integrated across service areas Reflect reasonable budget expectations Objectives

23 10/17/2015 Next Portion of STIP Service/Science Aviation Weather Marine/Coastal Tropical and Extratropical Public Weather Severe Storms, Winter Wx., Fire Wx. Hydrology QPE, QPF, Flooding Climate Analysis and Prediction Air Quality Service/Science Aviation Weather Marine/Coastal Tropical and Extratropical Public Weather Severe Storms, Winter Wx., Fire Wx. Hydrology QPE, QPF, Flooding Climate Analysis and Prediction Air Quality Cross-Cutting Observations DA/Numerical Prediction Forecast Applications IT Architecture Dissemination/Data Access Cross-Cutting Observations DA/Numerical Prediction Forecast Applications IT Architecture Dissemination/Data Access

24 10/17/2015 Roadmaps Focused on NWS Today and Next while Keeping an Eye on After Next Time Increasing Performance 2020 Today Next

25 10/17/2015 Briefing Outlines Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary