Is Climate Change Vindicating Malthus? Food Security, Water Scarcity, and the Right to Food Climate Change and Threats to Food Security Robert S. Lawrence, MD Director, The Center for a Livable Future Professor of Environmental Health Sciences and International Health Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

2 The Vicious Spiral The late James Grant introduced the idea of the vicious spiral of poverty, population growth, and environmental degradation (the PPE spiral) We now must add the challenge of climate change

CLF Concept Model A Conceptual Foundation to Guide Us

Resource Depletion 75% global population live in countries where resource extraction and depletion has exceeded resource capital Consumption of earth’s resources exceeds earth’s capacity and ability to regenerate by 30% Resource extraction will increase in newly emerging economies Brazil Russia Indonesia China India South Africa 4

Resource Depletion: Fresh Water Worldwide, agriculture accounts for 70% of total water use and 93% of water extraction (FAO) Worldwide, aquifers being depleted for irrigation faster than they can be replenished (e.g., Ogallala Aquifer, the northern plain of China, Punjab, etc.) Direct relationship between the availability of water and the world’s ability to meet the nutrition requirements of the population (Stockholm 2004 International Water Institute)

Resource Depletion: Water Scarcity

Resource Depletion: Soil Degradation 7

Human Impacts on Biodiversity 8

9 Energy Use by Agriculture The average U.S. farm uses 3 kcal of fossil energy to produce 1 kcal food energy For feedlot cattle, fossil energy input is 35 kcal for the production of 1 kcal of beef protein Fuel for Food: Energy Use in the U.S. Food System, USDA, 2010: In 2007, the U.S. food system accounted for almost 16 percent of the Nation’s energy budget. Between 1997 and 2002, over 80 percent of the increase in annual U.S. energy consumption was food related. Population growth, higher per capita food expenditures, and greater reliance on energy-using technologies boosted food- related energy consumption.

Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity 10

NEW Projected changes to crop yields due to climate change “All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, including food access, utilization, and price stability (high confidence).” – IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Report

New Plant Hardiness Zones

Food Production: Industrial Agriculture

What is meant by “industrialization” of food production? A system for agriculture based on the principles of the industrial revolution of the 19 th century – mechanization, efficiency, speed, uniformity and standardization In agriculture: monocropping, heavy use of inputs (fertilizers, water), reliance on fossil fuels Definition Of Industrial Agriculture by the Union of Concerned Scientists: Industrial agriculture views the farm as a factory with "inputs" (such as pesticides, feed, fertilizer, and fuel) and "outputs" (corn, chickens, and so forth). The goal is to increase yield (such as bushels per acre) and decrease costs of production, usually by exploiting economies of scale.

15 Industrialization of our Food Factors leading to the current “industrialized” food system Post-WWII fertilizer production has increased yields, but also nitrogen and phosphorous pollution Not accounting for “externalities” High resource use (soil, water, energy, etc.) Environmental consequences (water degradation, pollution by fertilizers and pesticides, soil loss, etc.) Artificially inexpensive fuel and water Agricultural subsidies (the farm bill) USDA has dueling roles Promote U.S. agricultural products Nutrition education

U.S. agriculture is defined by fewer, larger farms

Diverse and Resilient to Specialized Source: Economic Research Service, USDA

Consolidation in Livestock Industry

Impacts of U.S. Food Production System Fossil fuel and water consumed at unsustainable rates Synthetic chemical pesticides and fertilizers pollute soil, water, and air Soil eroding much faster than it can be replenished Monocultures erode biodiversity among both plants and animals

Biospheric Animation Sea-viewing Wide Field of View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data on marine and terrestrial plant productivity. Satellite reconstruction of net primary production, both terrestrial and marine over several annual cycles to give you a feel for the metabolism of the earth.

Impact on Climate Global climate model produced by NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research). White is relative humidity; Orange is precipitation. It picks up major features of this system including inter- tropical convergence zone.

2014 Culinary Institute of America, “Menus of Change” annual report, 2014 NEW Gallons of water used in food production per pound

Water needed for meat 425 gallons for 4 oz serving of beef 165 gallons for 4 oz serving of pork 66 gallons for 4 oz serving of chicken Replacing half of the animal products in your diet with plant-based substitutes reduces food-related water footprint by 30% Eating no meat reduces it by 60%

NEW Relative GHG emissions associated with protein sources Culinary Institute of America, “Menus of Change” annual report, 2014

25 Inefficiencies in meat production Meat-based diets consume more resources than plant-based diets (Source: USDA) ~700 kg grain to produce 100 kg of beef ~650 kg grain to produce 100 kg of pork ~260 kg grain to produce 100 kg of poultry 1000 kg water is used to produce 1 kg of grain >7000 kg water needed to produce feed for 1 kg of beef

Plant-Based Diets vs. Diets with Animal Protein A grain-based diet could feed … … 6.2 billion people An “American-style” diet high in animal protein could feed … … 2.5 billion people … 3.5–4 billion people … 9.5–10 billion people

Lancet: Per capita consumption to stabilize livestock greenhouse gas emissions at 2005 levels by 2050 (McMichael et al 2007; also USDA, USDA ERS) % reduction from current

Cutting Back on Meat IPCC Chair, Rajendra Pachauri: “Give up meat for one day (per week) initially, and decrease it from there. In terms of immediacy of action and the feasibility of bringing about reductions in a short period of time, it clearly is the most attractive opportunity."