Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Annele Eerola VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ian Miles University of Manchester, UK Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th -17th October 2008

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Contents Outlines of the presentation Multiple faces of FTA - multiple contexts and objectives - method developers, general FTA principles Making sense of FTA methods and tools - classification schemes - examples of methods and tools Contribution of the various methods and tools - for the dynamic process of shared knowledge creation - for the various phases of the FTA process Selecting methods and designing the process - general guidelines - important design dimensions - assessing quality Directions for further research - implications for Theme 1 parallel sessions

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Multiple contexts and objectives (1) National and regional foresight programmes (Miles et al, 2008) – creating shared understandings among the societal key actors – facilitating dynamism, innovation and competitiveness – developing prospective intelligence for policy-making and strategies Recent considerations: – from S&T policy focus towards a more horizontal policy view – from technology focus to broad-scope societal foresight – from expert consultation to participatory approaches involving a wide pool of stakeholders

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Technology Assessment (Johnston, 2008; Rader & Porter, 2008) – assessing the potential impacts of emerging new technologies – facilitating sound technological developments – providing input for legislative policy options – serving national parliaments and governmental bodies at national, regional and municipal levels – US OTA ( ), parliamentary TA & EP STOA, and Danish Board of Technology as examples Recent considerations: – balanced consideration of positive and negative impacts – balanced consideration of economic, societal, environmental and ethical perspectives – external expert analysis vs. constructive technology assessment Multiple contexts and objectives (2)

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Industrial foresight and roadmapping (Cuhls & Johnston, 2008) – examining development drivers and challenges at industry and company-level – supporting strategic decision making, innovation and competitiveness – creating shared visions and commitment among the key actors Recent considerations: – balanced consideration of technology-push vs. demand pull issues – consideration of the entire value chain, incl. end-users – broadening the meaning of 'technology' (services, business models and organisational issues included) – corporate social responsibility Multiple contexts and objectives (3)

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Developers of methods and tools A variety of epistemic communities have influenced the methodological development of FTA, including – innovation studies – technology foresight – technology assessment – futures research – technology forecasting – business forecasting & roadmapping (see e.g. Johnston, 2008; Miles, 2008) The biennial FTA conferences have provided a new opportunity for mutual learning and exchange of experiences since 2004

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Multiple faces of FTA Some general FTA principles can be defined (Cagnin & Keenan, 2008) Future-orientation Participation Evidence-based Multidisciplinarity Coordinated mobilisation of people and resources Action orientation

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA The previous two FTA conferences have documented a wide variety of methods and tools contributing to FTA A fresh overview can also be found in The Handbook of Technology Foresight (ed. by Georghiou et al, 2008) In these contexts, the various methods and tools have been classified by – type of technique: qualitative vs. quantitative/semi-quantitative – type of approach: exploratory vs. normative – type of knowledge source: expertise-interaction/creativity-evidence (see e.g. Popper, 2008) Types of methods and tools Various classification schemes

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Backcasting Brainstorming Expert panels, citizens panels, conferences, workshops Essays, scenario writing SWOT analysis Interviews Literature reviews Morphological analysis Relevance trees, logic charts Role play, acting Environmental scanning, weak signals Science fictioning, wildcards, genius forecasting Types of methods and tools Examples of qualitative methods in use

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Critical & key technologies Delphi panels & questionnaires Gaming-simulation Multicriteria analysis, quantitative scenarios Polling & voting Roadmapping, benchmarking System analysis, structural analysis Cross-impact analysis Patent analysis, bibliometrics Indicators and time series analysis Trend extrapolation Modelling Types of methods and tools Examples of semi-quantitative & quantitative methods in use

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA The Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008)

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Contribution of methods and tools Potential contribution of various methods and tools has been considered – for different modes of knowledge conversion in the dynamic process of shared knowledge creation  socialization, externalisation, combination, internalization (Nonaka, 1994; Eerola & Väyrynen, 2002; Eerola & Jørgensen, 2008) – for different phases of FTA processes  systemic framework for methods (Saritas, 2006)  pre-foresight, recruitment, generation, action, renewal (Miles, 2002/Popper, 2006) When and how do methods and tools contribute

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Contribution of methods and tools FTA as a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation ( Eerola et al, 2002, 2008; SECI by Nonaka, 1994)

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA A systemic framework for methods (Saritas 2006)

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase ( Popper, 2006) Qualitative methods Methods / ActivitiesPre-Recruit- GenerationAction Renewal foresightment 1BackcastingQualitative50%50% *) 2BrainstormingQualitative10%10%60%10%10% 3Citizens panelsQualitative10%40%40%10% 4Conferences / workshops10%Qualitat10%iv40%20%20% 5Essays / Scenario writing10%Qualitative70%10%10% 6Expert panelsQualitative20%20%20%20%20% 7Genius forecastingQualitative90%10% 8InterviewsQualitative10%10%60%10%10% 9Literature reviewQualitative70%30% 10Morphological analysisQualitative50%50% 11Relevance trees / logic charts10%Qualitative40%40%10% 12Role play / ActingQualitative50%50% 13ScanningQualitative50%10%30%10% 14Scenario workshopsQualitative70%30% 15Science fictioningQualitative100% 16SWOT analysisQualitative20%50%30% 17Weak signals / Wildcards10%Qualitative50%30%10% *) percentages acc. to the author's assessment

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase ( Popper, 2006) Quantitative & semi-quantitative methods Methods / ActivitiesPre-Recruit- GenerationAction Renewal foresightment 18Critical / key technologies10%Semi-quantitative50%30%10% *) 19DelphiSemi-quantitative60%30%10% 20Gaming-simulationSemi-quantitative50%50% 21Multicriteria analysis10%40%40%10% 22Patent analysis100% 23Polling / voting20%30%30%20% 24Quantitative Scenarios / SMIC90%10% 25Roadmapping10%10%70%10% 26Stakeholders mapping10%20%20%40%10% 27System / structural analysis10%50%40% 28Benchmarking40%20%40% 29Bibliometrics90%10% 30Cross-impactQuantitative50%50% 31Indicators and time series50%Quantitative30%20% 32Modelling Quantitative60%40% 33Trend extrapolationQuantitative30%50%20% *) percentages acc. to the author's assessment only

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Selecting methods and designing the process Focus on the triad of Data, Theory & Methods Use multiple methods - blend quantitative and qualitative methods - integrate distinct methodological contributions & multiple judgments Consider the available time/resources when selecting methods Formulate an explicit communication plan, taking advantage of electronic media Devise an explicit path to impact decision-making Assess the quality of FTA Some general guidelines (Rader & Porter, 2006)

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Selecting methods and designing the process Informative vs. instrumental outcomes Consensual views vs. diverse future perspectives Exclusive vs. extensive stakeholder involvement Fixed vs. autonomous process Important design dimensions (Könnölä et al, 2008)

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Assessing the quality (Rader & Porter, 2008) IssuesDimensionConsiderations Information PedigreeFitness for purposeCorrespondence of information & issues: - Adequacy - Relevance AccuracyComprehensive ness ApplicabilityAccess & AvailabilityIntelligibility ReliabilityControl - Sources – Where from? - Sources – Method of gen. - Verification - Consensus Confidence - Peer acceptance - Legitimacy Quality of ToolsFitness for purposeAdequacy/ApplicabilityRelevanceAdaptability/ Flexibility Transformation/ Encoding TransparencyModel documentationSources of information Arbitrariness – scientific set- ups LegitimacyCollegial consensus Information communicated through networking IntelligibilityCompliance with target audience AccessibilityTransparency Communication of uncertainties RecognitionStatement Pedigree statement Information communic- ated into the foresight exercise Acknowledgement of Input

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA Directions for further research Conceptual framing of the FTA process Varying roles of methods & tools in FTA processes Challenges of adaptive FTA and modular design Accumulation of useful knowledge on methods and tools Theme 1 parallel sessions: Issues to be considered

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA References Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. (2008). Positioning Future-oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Cuhls, K. and Johston, R. (2008). Corporate Foresight. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Eerola, A. and Väyrynen, E. (2002). Developing TF and TA Practices on the basis of European Experience. VTT Research Notes 2174, Espoo (in Finnish; abstract in English). Eerola, A. and Jørgensen, B. H. (2008). Foresight in Nordic Countries. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton. Johnston, R. (2008). Historical Review of the Development of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future- Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A., Kivisaari, S. and Koivisto, R. (2008): Management of Foresight Portfolio - Analysis of Modular Foresight Projects at Contract Research Organisation. Submitted to TASM (forthcoming). Miles, I. (2008). From the Futures to Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton. Miles, I., Cassingena Harper, J., Georghiou, L., Keenan, M. and Popper, R. (2008). The Many Faces of Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton. Nonaka, I. (1994). A Dynamic Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation. Organization Science, Vol. 5, No.1, p Popper, R. (2008). Foresight Methodology. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton. Rader M. & Porter, A. (2008). Fitting Future-oriented Analysis Methods to Study Types. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, Ph.D. Thesis, PREST, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.