STEMMING THE RISING TIDE: A Tale of Coastal Storms, Rising Tides, and Flooding in New York City Fulton Fish Market (South Street Seaport) Nor’easter Source: Mayor’s OEM, N.Y.C. A WebQuest for the 12th Grade Atmospheric Science Class Designed by Mitch Fox: Last updated on Oct. 25, Based on a template from The WebQuest Page

What’s the problem? Hurricane Gloria passed to the east of New York City in 1985 and led to millions of dollars in damage in certain sections of New York City. Officials at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said that if it had arrived at high tide a little farther west, it could have been a catastrophe. Source: Mayor’s OEM, N.Y.C.

MISSION STATEMENT: You have been hired by the Mayor’s Office Of Emergency Management to be part of a new committee to evaluate the risks to the city posed by changes in sea level which will affect flooding in lower Manhattan and other areas as a result of coastal storms. Part of your job is to assess the current policies for action and suggest new policies to enact if necessary.

TASKS: This assignment requires you to form your committee of Public Policy Analysts(PPA)and research the underlying science behind various coastal storms and the effect they could have on New York City in the future(2010,2100 A.D.) You are also required to evaluate the governmental policies currently in place to determine if they are adequate to deal with a changing sea level (e.g. 2010A.D. and 2100A.D.) and suggest new policy if necessary. To do this complete the following on the next slide:

PROCESS: Select a group of up to four committee members (whole class breaks into teams) Select a group of up to four committee members (whole class breaks into teams) Go to the TIPS Public Policy Analyst website to see the steps to follow as a Public Policy Analyst (PPA) You will be following steps from Define the Problem to Select Best Solution. Go to the TIPS Public Policy Analyst website to see the steps to follow as a Public Policy Analyst (PPA) You will be following steps from Define the Problem to Select Best Solution. Define your problem in terms of what it is and who needs to act.Define your problem in terms of what it is and who needs to act. ( See Worksheet One at PPA site under Define the problem) Follow Brainstorm areas of background science concepts (e.g. changing sea level trends over past 50 years and next century, tidal factors & storm surge, relevant regional seasonal climate phenomena) and preventative and emergency policy( e.g. evacuation, shelters, raising buildings, building dikes) to be researched. Maintain a paper trail by keeping a record of all ideas suggested. (See website for tips on brainstorming)( See Worksheet One at PPA site under Define the problem) Follow Brainstorm areas of background science concepts (e.g. changing sea level trends over past 50 years and next century, tidal factors & storm surge, relevant regional seasonal climate phenomena) and preventative and emergency policy( e.g. evacuation, shelters, raising buildings, building dikes) to be researched. Maintain a paper trail by keeping a record of all ideas suggested. (See website for tips on brainstorming) Designate each member of the team to research an area of science and policy.Designate each member of the team to research an area of science and policy. Review a list of questions prepared by the mayor and city council addressed to your committee to help guide you in your investigation (See next slide for message from mayor and then proceed to answer his questions on slide 7)Review a list of questions prepared by the mayor and city council addressed to your committee to help guide you in your investigation (See next slide for message from mayor and then proceed to answer his questions on slide 7)

A message from Mayor Giualiani I am interested in knowing storm and sea level trends for the past 50 years as well as those forecasts for the next century. This will enable my Office of Emergency Management (OEM) to gain a better understanding of some of the conditions (regional, seasonal climate phenomena such as hurricanes and Nor’easters) associated with these trends. We need this information in order to make forecasts and develop an informed response plan. Please see the questions my OEM has compiled and add any you think are necessary to answer. I am interested in knowing storm and sea level trends for the past 50 years as well as those forecasts for the next century. This will enable my Office of Emergency Management (OEM) to gain a better understanding of some of the conditions (regional, seasonal climate phenomena such as hurricanes and Nor’easters) associated with these trends. We need this information in order to make forecasts and develop an informed response plan. Please see the questions my OEM has compiled and add any you think are necessary to answer.

Questions from the New York City Office of Emergency Management and the Mayor 1What is the probability of a coastal storm like the Nor’easter of 1950 or a hurricane like Gloria(1985) or the Hurricane of 1938 hitting New York again around 2010, 2020?What is this forecast based on? Will this study suffice to serve through the century? 1. What is the probability of a coastal storm like the Nor’easter of 1950 or a hurricane like Gloria(1985) or the Hurricane of 1938 hitting New York again around 2010, 2020? What is this forecast based on? Will this study suffice to serve through the century? 2What physical impacts would this have on the city’s residents and infrastructure ? (e.g. disruption of transportation, communication, food supply 2. What physical impacts would this have on the city’s residents and infrastructure based on flooding? (e.g. disruption of transportation, communication, food supply etc.). 3.What impact would this have on N.Y.C. economy? 4. Are these impacts different from what happened in 1992, 1993, 1996,1998? 5. Can we rely on the last study’s projections conducted in 2000? Defend your answer.

RESOURCES Conduct your preliminary research to determine if the problem really exists. Refer to U.S. Geologic Survey, NASA, and other organizations. Refer to Mayor’s OEM. Go to various websites:

GRADING RUBRIC FOR EVALUATION: You will be graded on both an individual (15 pts.) and team basis (85 pts). The team must work together effectively and efficiently to research all aspects of the problem, produce a written research report to the OEM (minimum 5 pages) and a cogent PowerPoint presentation using graphics and weblinks. Individual specialists (Science, Economic Impacts, Engineering, Public Policy) will be responsible for their areas of expertise and will be evaluated on the completeness of their research and the ability to back up their statements with citations of resources and experts. There is an evaluation guide for both the team and individual activities. (SEE link to printable score sheet)

The Bronx H.S. of Science Risk Assessment of Coastal Storm Threat PROJECT EVALUATION AND SCORE SHEET

Conclusion: After completing this module you will be able to: 1. Recognize a problem and define it clearly in terms of what it is, who is affected and who is responsible for policy decisions to deal with it. 2. Validate that the problem exists 3. Explain to others the science concepts and impact policies behind it 4. Use current technologies (e.g. Internet, spread sheets, presentation media) to substantiate claims and solve problems. 5. Evaluate the existing public policy designed to address it 6. Suggest alternative policies when required In effect you will be a well educated citizen able to be a player in our democratic process. To paraphrase the great educator Dr. John Dewey, an educated electorate is essential for the success of our democracy. We must be well informed and trained in technology in order to face the challenges of the future.

SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: What other problems might face our metropolitan community, country and planet in the coming century? Refer to United Nations Reports and Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Report(2000).What other problems might face our metropolitan community, country and planet in the coming century? Refer to United Nations Reports and Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Report(2000). What are the chances of N.Y. City having an earthquake? Get information from the United States Geological Survey and the Geological Survey of New York State.What are the chances of N.Y. City having an earthquake? Get information from the United States Geological Survey and the Geological Survey of New York State.