Greater Manchester Against Crime Strategic Threat Assessment: Understanding The Process Neighbourhoods Scrutiny Committee Monday 21 st March 2011 Mark Knight Research and Data Manager Community Safety Unit / Drug and Alcohol Action Team

The Commissioning Cycle (IPC Model)

National Intelligence Business Model (NIM) Annual Strategic Threat Assessment (STA) and Review: Commissioned in partnership with agreed priority areas of focus Informs of risks to the strategic aims of Community Safety Partnership (CSP – formerly CDRP): build safer, stronger, confident communities; increase community safety; reduce the fear of crime Identifies patterns and hotspots Recommends actions Offers targets and means of performance monitoring

From planning… With CSP Executive approval the STA in turn informs: Operational Strategy (OS) Partnership Delivery Plan (PDP) An Action Plan which also takes into account other strategic documents, needs assessments, the Local Area Agreement (LAA), and local agency and community input

…to doing… Local Partnership Delivery Groups (LPDGs) are central to securing community buy-in and delivery of project plans. LPDGs and partners meet every 4 weeks at the Partnership Delivery Group (PDG). Information needs to be received and passed through at all levels for the NIM business process to be effective.

An example: 2010/11 STA Review

Operation Volcanic (from June 2010) Operation Volcanic aims to reduce vehicle crime across the division and in the main crime area’s of the Salford East (F2) & Salford Central (F3) Neighbourhood Policing area’s. Salford CSP have been actively addressing the identified chronic hotspot problem around Trinity and Blackfriars, through the Blackfriars Action Group.

Risks The current seasonal threat chart highlights HIGH in March for TFMV crime and MEDIUM HIGH in April. The improvement in weather and Easter break may account for an increase the volume of street-parked vehicles on the East and Central Neighbourhoods as people socialise in Manchester City Centre.

There has been a 16% (-26 crimes) decrease in TFMV across the Division in the current 4-week period, compared to the same period in There has been a 35% (-975 crimes) reduction when comparing the YTD figures with the same period last year. Decreases in TFMV crimes were seen on Salford North, East and Central, with very small increases seen on the South and West Neighbourhoods.

TFMV rose sharply during week beginning , when a total of 50 TFMV crimes were recorded, with rises seen on the East, Central and West Neighbourhoods. In particular on the periphery of Swinton Golf Club and across the East Lancashire Road. The implementation of curfews/partnership intervention on the identified ‘younger offenders’ was believed to have curbed their activities, which then indicated that further offenders were likely to be responsible for the continued crime in this particular area. The crimes have been committed from the early evening onwards and have peaked between 19:00 and 20:00 hrs and 23:00 and midnight. They have also continued overnight, reducing after 03:00 hrs.

In Salford East Crimes continue to be noted around Lower Kersal, the University, Strawberry Road area of Pendleton. MO: smashing of front nearside and offside windows to gain access to glove boxes and car interiors to steal small portable electrics such as Sat Navs, ipods, laptops. Five crimes have involved theft of front and rear number plates. Offenders have been multiple male teens, in groups of 2 to 6, both on pedal cycle and on foot.

Recommendation: Compilation of network chart of these ‘up and coming’ youth vehicle crime offenders. Enforcement / Prevention / Intelligence Operation VOLCANIC & Operation INFINITY to continue, with use of decoy vehicles/ trackers. In Hotspot locations.