1 Behavioural Slides 2007 Behavioral Corporate Finance.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Behavioural Slides 2007 Behavioral Corporate Finance.

2 Development of Behavioral Finance I. Standard Research in Finance: Assumption: Agents are rational self-interested utility maximisers. 1955: Herbert Simon: Bounded Rationality: Humans are not computer-like infinite information processors. Heuristics. Economics experiments: Humans are not totally self-interested.

3 Development of Behavioral Finance II. Anomalies: Efficient Capital Markets. Excessive volatility. Excessive trading. Over and under-reaction to news. 1980s: Werner DeBondt: coined the term Behavioral Finance. Prospect Theory: Kahnemann and Tversky 1980s.

4 Development III BF takes findings from psychology. Incorporates human biases into finance. Which psychological biases? Potentially infinite. Bounded rationality/bounded selfishness/bounded willpower. Bounded rationality/emotions/social factors.

5 Potential biases. Overconfidence/optimism Regret. Prospect Theory/loss aversion. Representativeness. Anchoring. Gamblers fallacy. Availability bias. Salience….. Etc, etc.

6 Focus in Literature Overconfidence/optimism Prospect Theory/loss aversion. Regret.

7 Prospect Theory. W U Eg: Disposition Effect: Sell winners too quickly. Hold losers too long. Risk-averse in gains Risk-seeking in losses

8 Overconfidence. Too much trading in capital markets. OC leads to losses? But : Kyle => OC traders out survive and outperform well-calibrated traders.

9 Behavioral Corporate Finance. Much behavioral research in Financial Markets. Not so much in Behavioral CF. Relatively new: Behavioral CF and Investment Appraisal/Capital Budgeting/Dividend decisions.