1 Post-Genomics and the Future of Human Societies: a Foresight Approach Excerpts from “ DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post- Genomic Era - An APEC-wide Technology Foresight Study Dr. Nares Damrongchai Policy Researcher APEC Center for Technology Foresight National Science and Technology Development Agency, Thailand 24 January 2004 Bangkok, Thailand

2 Background April 2003, Human Genome Project officially declared complete.  But... Reaping the rewards and reducing the dangers of technological advances demands careful consideration of 2 dimensions. First, how various socio-economic environments lead to differences in the pace and direction of technological innovation and diffusion, and second, what the implications are of the uses and spread of new technologies for economy and society OECD st Century Technologies

3 Integration of Post-Genomics into the Society Adapted from David W. Beier, Life Sciences Innovation Value Chain, Post- Genomics Research Health- care System Development of Products and Services Translation Intellectual property protection Capital markets Transparency International standards Legal and regulatory infrastructure ensures benefit to individuals and society PUBLIC POLICY PRIVATE SECTOR Development of new technologies Basic research at public and private academic institutions Education and training Clinical trial Manufacturing and marketing or distribution of products and services Insurers Pharmacies Hospitals Medical professionals Human populations and societies

4 APEC-wide Foresight Study on “ DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post-Genomic Era ” Proposing Economy: Thailand Co-sponsors: Canada; Japan; Philippines; Chinese Taipei and USA Period: mid 2002 to 2003

5 Project Roadmap 2002 NOV 2003 APR MAY AUG 2004 JAN Overview Paper Foresight Support And Organi- zation Post- Foresight Position Papers Issues Papers APEC-wide Meeting in Bangkok Preliminary findings APEC Ministerial Meeting, mid OCT Core Group Meeting 3-4 APR, BKK Web-based National Surveys ISTWG Meeting Final Report, DEC 2003

6 Technological Developments and New Research Approaches in “Post- Genomics” Era SNPs Analysis Microarray Bioinformatics Proteomics Pharmacogenomics Rational Drug Design Gene Therapy Population Genomics and Linkage Studies Genetic Profiling

7 CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region The success and failure of scientific and technology promises. This also includes the speed and cost involved in the development and application of the technology.

8 CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region Social influence. Each society may have similar or different attitudes based on social, ethnic, religion backgrounds as well as the interpretation of human right and human dignity issues. This depends on the structure and mechanism to educate the public, the open discussion and the mobilization of public attitudes.

9 CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region The effects or perception of impacts of genomics to societies and the environment. This is a combination of the benefit, risk, adverse effect, past-experience of the societies, cost and accessibility.

10 CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region Regulation of genomic research and their applications. These regulations can be based on safety, economic, or ethical reasons. For example, embryonic stem cells are regulated on the research end, and cloning on the application end.

11 CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region The demand of the genomics-related health products. This is related to the success and the varieties of products (risk screening, diagnostics, intervention or therapeutic tools as the results of genomic research). CC:

12 CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region The genomics related business involvement. This include public policy to promote investment in genomics and the different business environment in each economy.

13 CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region Intellectual property management. In terms of protection of innovation and development as well as the accessibility and distribution of knowledge.

14 “Uncertainties” A clear enough future A B C Alternate futures A range of futures ? True ambiguity

15 “Scenarios” prosperity crisis trends Scenario 1 Scenario 2Scenario 3 strategy

16 “ Scenario building ” “ Presenting the draft ”

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