THINKING LONG TERM: Confronting Global Climate Change Written by James J. MacKenzie Senior Associate World Resources Institute (WRI)

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7, Year Millions of people Partly as a result of a favorable climate, humanity has grown in numbers over time

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE The world has grown dependent on inexpensive fossil fuels Source: “Global Energy Perspectives” IIASA, WEC, 1998

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Burning fossil fuels leads to: y Environmental impacts during exploration and production y Ozone, acid deposition, and local and trans-boundary air pollution from burning y Emissions of greenhouse gases

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Global warming enhanced by emissions of man-made gases Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Much is known with certainty about global warming: y Existence of natural greenhouse effect is established beyond doubt y Concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are increasing y The temperature of the earth is increasing the hottest in at least 1000 years. y Sea levels are rising (4 to 10 inches over past 100 years) y Some GHGs will remain in the atmosphere for centuries

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE CO 2 contributed most to global warming over past century

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE CO 2 is building up in the atmosphere Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Earth’s temperature continues to rise rapidly Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Earth is projected to grow warmer Source: Univ. of East Anglia, IPCC

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Extreme precipitation events are becoming more common

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Uncertainties still persist y Timing and regional impacts y The effects of increased cloudiness y Uncertain health and ecological impacts y Possible surprises from unanticipated effects

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE More impacts of global warming can be expected y More health effects from the spread of tropical diseases, heat waves, and so- called “natural disasters” y Loss of agricultural land in developing countries y Disappearance of ecosystems that are unable to migrate

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE The climate problem is a long-term problem and will require “thinking long term” to solve

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Common sense goals to cope with the climate threat y Reduce CO 2 emissions, requiring world economy to become much more efficient y Start a world-wide shift from fossil to non- fossil energy sources

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE We can explore energy- climate futures through “what if” scenarios …

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Criteria for a strategy to keep CO 2 levels “reasonably” low y A strategy should support sustainable growth in the world economy y Improvements in global energy efficiency (E/GDP) y A transition to non-fossil energy sources

These criteria are met in the “Ecologically Driven Scenario” from Global Energy Perspectives by WEC and IIASA

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Scenario assumptions related to energy demand y Growth rate in global energy demand of 0.8% over next century, doubling energy use by 2100 y Doubling of world population by 2100 y 10-fold increase in world economy over next century y 1.3% annual improvement in energy efficiency. One would need only 20% as much energy to produce a dollar of GDP compared with today.

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Recent annual energy growth rates ( )

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Assumptions related to energy supply y Global supply of new renewables (wind, PV, hydro) would increase to 50% by 2100 y Biofuels from trees, agricultural wastes, municipal wastes, and so on would account for 30% of supply by 2100 y Nuclear would be phased out by 2100 y Coal, oil, and natural gas would fall to 18% of global supply from its present value of 80% y CO 2 emissions would fall by 2/3 by 2100

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Mtoe Energy supply: The global transition to non-fossil energy

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Photovoltaics (PV) produce power with no emissions or moving parts

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE The use of wind machines is growing rapidly around the world

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Mtoe Rapid growth required in the use of renewable energy sources

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Rapid growth required in the use of renewable energy sources y Use of biofuels must increase — sustainably — to over 5 times its present value by 2100 (1.6% growth per year) y Hydro must increase to 3 times its present value by 2100 (1.2% growth per year)

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Rapid growth required in the use of renewable energy sources y PV and wind must grow to 45% of global supply by 2100 y PV and wind must grow initially at about 12% per year, slowing to 6% by 2050, and then to about 2 to 3% per year through the year 2100 y Global data show that electricity from PVs and wind has been growing at about 20% per year for the past 15 years.

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE From the viewpoint of non-carbon energy sources, the future looks promising. Global growth in these two vital sources of renewable energy is on track to meet the needs of a growing world economy.

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Mtc 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7, Resulting carbon dioxide emissions (1990 through 2100) Year

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE CO 2 concentration in an ecologically driven future In this aggressive scenario, the CO 2 concentration would peak at about 450 parts per million (ppm) -- less than a doubling -- in the last quarter of the 21st century, and then start declining.

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE In sum, a “thinking long term” strategy would... y Develop a century-long energy and climate strategy to hold CO 2 concentration below a doubling y Improve global energy efficiency (reduce E/GDP) to hold energy growth to under 1% y Support rapid phasing in of non-fossil energy sources

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE National governments should support “thinking long term” strategies y Reform energy prices to make them more closely reflect the costs they impose on society. Benefits: l Encourage efficiency and make more economic the renewable energy sources. l Should also lower taxes on income, savings, and investment to offset higher energy prices.

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE National governments should support “thinking long term” strategies (continued) y Research. Support research on renewable energy sources and the infrastructure needs to phase them into the economy. y Creating markets. Use government purchasing power to create markets, bring down prices, and get experience with the use of renewable energy technologies including hydrogen and fuel cells.

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE SUMMARY: there are three areas for major federal emphasis... y Reforming energy pricing to “level the playing field” y Supporting basic research on new technologies, and y Using federal purchasing to expand markets and reduce costs.

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WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Sources, web sites:

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Climate Web sites y “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” y “US Global Change Research Program” y globalchange.gov/ “Gateway to Global Change Data” y “Global Change, Electronic Edition”

WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Global energy Web sites Global energy Web sites y www/iiasa.ac.at/cgi- bin/ecs/book_dyn/bookcnt.pv“ Global Energy Perspectives” y “United Nations Development Programme” y “World Energy Council” y “World Energy Assessment”