The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated /Mark Twain/ … or why is the euro still alive and should Latvia join the EMU? Mārtiņš Kazāks, PhD.

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Presentation transcript:

The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated /Mark Twain/ … or why is the euro still alive and should Latvia join the EMU? Mārtiņš Kazāks, PhD Deputy Group Chief Economist Chief Economist in Latvia Swedbank November 28, 2012

© Swedbank 2 Global Economy: subpar growth, stagnation, recession… well, it looks like a sick and shaky man…

© Swedbank 3 Europe: … well, more like a sick and beaten man with low self esteem put in an intensive care ward…

© Swedbank 4 Universal response: print some money, which is ok as part of the measures… Avots:

© Swedbank 5 Europe: monetary policy transmission mechanism is broken and money printing has a very limited effect…

© Swedbank 6 Europe: ample liquidity has some quite predictable but not that positive side effects… 6

© Swedbank 7 Europe: it surely does not look nice, but is it really that bad? 7

© Swedbank 8 Europe: much has been done indeed, but the house is surely not complete and lots more still needs to be done… 8 For instance, Into what will the EU evolve and what will be the role of the EMU? –Banking union… single supervisor, single resolution, deposit guarantees? –Integrated budgetary framework… more Europe with less money? –Integrated economic policy… what does it really mean? –Democratic legitimacy and accountability… yes, we do need that! What will be the financial cost of all this? What will be the political cost of all this?

© Swedbank 9 Europe: financial markets are worried about the risk of default, not that much about the exit… 9

© Swedbank 10 Latvia: the fastest growing EU economy for three quarters running… do we need all this “euro stuff”?

© Swedbank 11 Latvia: what are the benefits from joining the euro? 11

© Swedbank 12 Latvia and the euro: what are the options? 12 Avots:

© Swedbank 13 Euro 2014: not a windfall hefty pension but a valuable opportunity which would be a shame to waste Avots:

© Swedbank 14 Latvia: it seems we will be able to meet the criteria… 14

© Swedbank 15 Thank you! Global economic outlook, Global economy monthly newsletters, etc.: To subscribe to our research: