1 Bridging Swedish and EMU/French inflation Vincent Chaigneau SG - Head of Interest Rate & FX Strategy.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Bridging Swedish and EMU/French inflation Vincent Chaigneau SG - Head of Interest Rate & FX Strategy

Swedish and French CPIs Correlation between the French ex- tobacco CPI and the Swedish CPI: 0.72 Correlation between the French and Swedish CPIs: 0.83 Period: 01/91 – 12/06Period: 01/76 – 01/07

The influence of housing Impact of each category on the spreadWeight of each CPI category

…that implies a strong correlation between the spread and 3-month yields Correlation between the Swedish/French ex-tobacco CPI spread and Swedish 3-month yields: 0.63

Swedish and EMU CPIs Correlation between the EMU ex-tobacco HICP and the Swedish CPI: 0.64 Correlation between the EMU HICP and the Swedish CPI: 0.84 Period: 01/97 – 01/07Period: 04/89 – 01/07

Inflation linked OATs attractive for buy-and-hold investors Swedish investors The outstandings of Swedish inflation linked bonds have been increasing too Investors holding Swedish linkers for long term hedging purposes for example may look for instruments which exhibit the same trend in total return terms Inflation linked OATs can be attractive from this point of view, given their high correlation with Swedish linkers (next slides).

Total return: OATi 2013 vs. SGBi 2015 Unhedged return, monthlyCurrency-hedged return, monthly Correlation = 0.96 (since March 2003)Correlation = 0.97 (since March 2003)

Total return: OATi 2029 vs. SGBi 2028 Unhedged return, monthlyCurrency-hedged return, monthly Correlation = 0.99 (since March 2003)

Total return: OATei 2032 vs. SGBi 2028 Unhedged return, monthlyCurrency-hedged return, monthly Correlation = 0.98 (since November 2002)Correlation = 0.99 (since November 2002)

OATei vs. SGBi real-yield dynamics Real yields moving hand in hand

Comparison in breakeven space Trends in breakeven space are not similar => opportunities for relative value strategies

12 Innovation in Government Securities Market: Inflation Linked Ultra Long Dated Bonds Indices Sébastien BOITREAUD, Deputy Chief Executive, AgenceFrance Trésor Sébastien BOITREAUD, Deputy Chief Executive, AgenceFrance Trésor Bo LUNDGREN, Director General, Riksgäldskontoret Bo LUNDGREN, Director General, Riksgäldskontoret Vincent CHAIGNEAU, Head of Strategy Research, Société Générale CIB Vincent CHAIGNEAU, Head of Strategy Research, Société Générale CIB Philippe RAKOTOVAO, Chief Executive Officer, EuroMTS Philippe RAKOTOVAO, Chief Executive Officer, EuroMTS Stéphane SALAS, Head of Inflation Trading, SociétéGénérale CIB Stéphane SALAS, Head of Inflation Trading, SociétéGénérale CIB 14:00/15:30 - Panel 4

13 Stockholm, Thursday, March 29, 2007 Paris, Gateway to Euro Capital Markets