Before and After Maastricht: The Case of Slovenia Boštjan Jazbec Member of the Governing Board Bank of Slovenia Tabor, 23 May 2008 Views expressed are not necessarily views of the Bank of Slovenia.
Outline Problems with Maastricht Criteria Fulfilment Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Absorber? Before and After Maastricht The Case Study: Slovenia
Strategies for Euro Adoption Wait for Real Convergence to Take Place Benefits of Euro Adoption? Beat the Mastricht Inflation Criterion by Exchange Rate Manipulation Entusiasm for Inflation Targeting
Economics or Politics? Change of Maastricht Criteria requires change of Treaty Problem with ECB Governance
The Case of Slovenia May 2004: Entry to EU June 2004: Entry to ERM2 January 2007: Adoption of Euro
Real Convergence Story?
Where Do We Stand Today?
Catching-up Process
Inflation Criterion: Slovenia
Is this Balassa-Samuelson Effect?
Structure of HICP
Food Prices in Slovenia and EMU
Activity, Employment and Wages
GDP Growth by Components of Expenditure
Contributions to Employment Growth
Financial Deepening
Lending to Domestic Private Sector
Interest Rates in Slovenia Loans to Non-financial CorporationsLoans to Households
Financial inflows
Current Account Development
Conclusions Maastricht Inflation Criterion Benefits of Euro Adoption Financial Stability Issue At least we cannot have exchange rate and B-o-P crises