Scenarios and their purpose. We can either stumble into the future and hope it turns out all right or we can try and shape it. To shape it, the first.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Responsibility.
Advertisements

Strategic Futures Planning: Scenario Building Methodology – Emerging Risks (a practical case at the Swiss Reinsurance Company)
The Use and Impact of FTA Attila Havas and Ron Johnston Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and Australian Centre for Innovation Third.
Chapter 10 Dealing with Uncertainty Introduction ---exacerbated by regulatory & environmental uncertainty Restructuring of the electric industry,
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 1 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Environmental Scenario Analysis.
Scenario Analysis By: Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Shahnila Islam.
Examine the Evidence CONSORTIUM CUSTOMER SUPPORT Roman Nowacki Lucent Technologies District Manager - Wireless (630) ,
1 About Scenario Planning Method of studying the most important driving forces affecting our futures. A team process that encourages exchange of knowledge.
Scenario Discovery Robert Lempert Director RAND Pardee Center on Longer-Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition CEDM Project Meeting May 21,
LIMESTONE LANDSCAPES. BY THE END OF THIS LESSON YOU WILL EXPERTS AT ANSWERING THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS… 1.What is Limestone and its features? 2.What are.
Welcome to Maths, Science and Technology Enrichment Day Our Competence this term is: ‘Research and Transfer of knowledge’. This means finding and using.
The basics of quantifying qualitative scenarios By Gerald Harris Author, The Art of Quantum Planning.
Canadian Geomatics Community Round Table Know Edge Limited Location Information Innovation Overview of Workshop Presented by: Ed Kennedy Hickling Arthurs.
Scenario Planning - Lecture 21 Scenario Planning – Lecture 2 “Thinking the Unthinkable” © 2009 ~ Mark Polczynski.
Facilitating Multi Stakeholder Processes and Social Learning Herman Brouwer/ Karèn Verhoosel Centre for Development Innovation Drivers, Trends and.
Scenario Construction Via Cross Impact Prof. Victor A. Bañuls Management Department Pablo de Olavide University Seville, Spain
1 Forecasting the Future (of.....) Your Name Here Note: This is a basic framework for a presentation. You may add as many slides as you need.
Scenario Construction Via Cross Impact Prof. Victor A. Bañuls Management Department Pablo de Olavide University Seville, Spain
lesson 1.2 YOUR DRIVING TASK
Unit 1 Assignment 4 P4.
Presented By: Lindsey Moore John Limberg Matt Martinez Joseph Morgan.
Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization
Tutor Peter Considine. (Core Text Exploring (Corporate) Strategy, © Pearson Education Ltd 2008 or 2011) 1 Lecture Week 2 Assessing The Strategic Position.
Planning Tools and Techniques Unit 4: Planning and Controlling.
Shelter Training 08b – Belgium, 16 th –18 th November, 2008 based on content developed by p This session describes the benefits of developing a strategic.
Open Data for Resilience John Crowley. To use science, technology & innovation to inform decision making and reduce the vulnerability of the developing.
How to make your classroom more STEM friendly Presented by: Kendra Brace Director of Education Aerospace Museum of California.
What is the “bottom line”? Via Strategic Management.
Navigating an Uncertain World A book in two parts –The Columbus Project –A Pilots Guide A webinar with the authors –Gill Ringland, Patricia Lustig, Rob.
Foundation Concepts Information Infrastructure: –The physical facilities, services, and management that support all organizational computing resources.
QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop by Professor Ron Johnston 28 April 2009 Brisbane.
Martin Rhisiart Cardiff Business School
Traditional Planning It’s largely deterministic It’s largely deterministic Process relies on a single most likely alternative future forecast Process.
Collaborative Leadership: What is it and why should you care
Delta-Schoolcraft Parent Coalition Sounding Board Process.
Home Enrichment (HE) TEST THE IDEA. DAY ONE (1) Focus: Purpose & Questions at Issue 4 Home Enrichment (HE)- 4/13 Do Nightly / Due on Fri. 4/17 TEST THE.
Contextual environment and scenarios Chapter 2, Exploring Corporate Strategy EBE and Scenarios materials.
Welcome Scenario Planning October 2013 Atul Patel.
Adamsville Elementary January A Culture of Learning and professional Learning Communities The new way of doing business.
SISP Tools Introduction Grouping SISP Tools Selected SISP Tools
FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management Consultants Brian Brader Alister Wilson Strategic Futures Coaching National Council for Higher.
Socio-economic scenarios Anand Patwardhan IIT-Bombay.
THE NEW MILLENNIUM OR CURRENT TREND The 20th Century Mathematics Math Wars : American Experience (1) A Splintered Vision There is no one at the helm of.
Threats, Challenges, and Opportunities Taking the Long-Term Perspective for Wildland Fire Management.
FUTURE INTELLIGENCE Dealing with uncertainty
Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation.
Mysoltani.ir سایت فیلم روشهای مشارکتی Technology Foresight Foresight is about preparing for the future. It is about deploying resources in the best.
Gerald Harris Planning and Strategy Development An introduction to Scenario-based Strategic Planning.
Principles and Process Dr Lee Gruner RACMA 1 Strategic Planning.
© 2010 IBM Corporation Business Analytics software Business Analytics Editable Text Editable Text Editable Text.
National Council for Voluntary Organisations Third Sector Foresight Look out: the future of the relationship between the third sector and local government.
A Strategic Transition - Part II
Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Scenarios Research up to date Monika Zurek FAO April 2005.
Strategic Management at Non Profit. If you fail to plan, you plan to fail But Plans are nothing planning is everything.
Managing Smoke and Emissions. A new system for managing smoke and emissions in Victoria that will provide for coordinated: Investment Service delivery.
Scientific Method An Investigation System. From the beginning of time, people have wondered how and why things happen in the world.
Communimetrics and CQI Stephen Shimshock PhD Michael Martinez MSW Amy Edwards LMSW Yakiciwey Mitchell MSW Angelina Garcia MSW.
Part III: Strategy in Action
1.6 Organisational planning and decision making By the end of the lesson, you should be able to: Analyse and interpret business plans Compare and contrast.
Envisioning the Future: The NACMP Scenarios The National Association of Catholic Media Partners.
Chapter 9 The Human Population.
Uncertainty Treatment in Integrated Assessment Modelling A Workshop of the UN/ECE TFIAM-IIASA January 24/ Comments from an Oil Industry Perspective.
Chapter 5 5 Planning C H A P T E R. Outcomes Differentiate between strategic planning and master planning. Understand the strategic and master planning.
How do Christians try to make the community a better place? Learning Outcomes To explain how Christian teachings impact on their communities Wednesday.
Strategic Futures Training 9 February Aims  To provide an overview of horizon scanning and futures techniques and show how they connect together.
ANNOTATION! (Based on pgs in Fresh Takes). WHAT IS ANNOTATING? Annotating means marking a text (story, poem, essay, etc.) with highlighting, comments,
MAKING SMART CHOICES How to think about your whole decision problem Arif Altaf Southwest High School, 2016.
Rehearsing Uncertain Futures: Three Scenarios Research and LMI Team, Skills for Health April 2011.
An Introduction to scenario planning
Bringing It All Together
Presentation transcript:

Scenarios and their purpose

We can either stumble into the future and hope it turns out all right or we can try and shape it. To shape it, the first step is to work out what it might look like. Stephen Ladyman, January 2006

Stories that describe how things might be in the future –whats different from today –what we need to do to be successful Based on an analysis of change drivers Not predictions or forecasts Help decision makers imagine and manage the future –identify whats in their control –identify what isnt –identify what needs to change to ensure future success Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world Scenarios

A six step process 1. Identify what is driving change 2. Decide which change drivers are critical and uncertain 3. Construct a scenario matrix 4. Develop the scenarios 5. Identify the strategic issues which emerge from the discussion 6. Incorporate those issues into the strategic planning process

The IIS scenarios Focus on how science and technology might be applied to infrastructure over the next 50 years A consultation process with experts from the research community, business and public sector to identify key drivers and uncertainties Four scenarios