Scenarios and their purpose

We can either stumble into the future and hope it turns out all right or we can try and shape it. To shape it, the first step is to work out what it might look like. Stephen Ladyman, January 2006

Stories that describe how things might be in the future –whats different from today –what we need to do to be successful Based on an analysis of change drivers Not predictions or forecasts Help decision makers imagine and manage the future –identify whats in their control –identify what isnt –identify what needs to change to ensure future success Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world Scenarios

A six step process 1. Identify what is driving change 2. Decide which change drivers are critical and uncertain 3. Construct a scenario matrix 4. Develop the scenarios 5. Identify the strategic issues which emerge from the discussion 6. Incorporate those issues into the strategic planning process

The IIS scenarios Focus on how science and technology might be applied to infrastructure over the next 50 years A consultation process with experts from the research community, business and public sector to identify key drivers and uncertainties Four scenarios