Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) overview and potential links with S2S Aaron Boone (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France) and Joe Santanello (NASA-GSFC) S2S Meeting, Feb. 4-6, 2013, Exeter, UK

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK The aim of GLASS is to promote community activities that improve: 1.our best estimates and the model representation of state variables 2.our understanding of land/atmosphere feedbacks 3.our understanding of the role of land surface in predictability. To best achieve these aims, GLASS has been re-structured into three elements: Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK The aim of GLASS is to promote community activities that improve: 1.our best estimates and the model representation of state variables 2.our understanding of land/atmosphere feedbacks 3.our understanding of the role of land surface in predictability. To best achieve these aims, GLASS has been re-structured into three elements: Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK The aim of GLASS is to promote community activities that improve: 1.our best estimates and the model representation of state variables 2.our understanding of land/atmosphere feedbacks 3.our understanding of the role of land surface in predictability. To best achieve these aims, GLASS has been re-structured into three elements: Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK  Ongoing ALMIP2 – Links to GHP GLACE2 – Links to S2S? LUCID2 – Links to iLeaps  Launching in next 12 months: GSWP3 – Links to carbon community PILDAS – Links to WGNE GLASS/GABLS coupling – Links to GASS PALS benchmarking – Links to GHP  Being planned LoCo SGP testbed GLASS Projects :

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) PILDAS (Project for the Intercomparison of Land Data Assimilation Systems) PILDAS is expected to launch in early 2013, once participants from all the major operational NWP centers have confirmed participation. The experimental design is nearly complete: a pilot study is underway by the project lead to use 2 LSMs with 1 DA algorithm in NASA’s LIS (Land Information System platform) Phase-1 is focused on operational centers, synthetic obs, and different DA algorithms w/different LSMs for a 1/8 degree domain over the SGP. Later phases will focus on coupled DA systems and actual satellite observations from SMOS and SMAP. GLASS will take the experimental plan and pilot results to WGNE to put pressure on centers that are not currently listed (e.g. UK Met). PALS (Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface models) Benchmarking - evaluating land surface models and the data sets used to test them Includes gap filling, empirical benchmarks, and automated metrics along with a large suite of Fluxnet data. The joint GHP-GLASS project to demonstrate benchmarking through PALS is ramping up with a deadline to produce results for the AMS Annual Meeting and GEWEX Newsletter.

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK -2 Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment The 2nd phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment Overall goal: Determine the degree to which realistic land surface (soil moisture) initialization contributes to forecast skill (rainfall, temperature) at 1-2 month leads Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK 10 GCMs 100 start dates (1 Apr Aug 1995) 10 members of 2 months runs 2 series 1) Series 1: initial soil from pseudo obs 2) Series 2: random initial soil GLACE-2 Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK GLACE-2 Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK GLACE-2 Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK 10 GCMs 100 start dates (1 Apr Aug 1995) 10 members of 2 months runs 2 series 1) Series 1: initial soil from pseudo obs 2) Series 2: random initial soil Main Diagnostics: Difference in R 2 relative to obs series 1 – series 2 averaged for 15-day lead periods GLACE-2 Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) Precipitation forecasts: Increase in skill due to land initialization (JJA) (conditioned on strength of local initial soil moisture anomaly)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) Temperature forecasts: Increase in skill due to land initialization (JJA) (conditioned on strength of local initial soil moisture anomaly)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Conclusions: Skill improvement in US better than in Europe (also potential predictability in US larger) Skill in temperature and precipitation increases mainly in areas where: - the precipitation forcing quality is high (high station density gives better initial soil moisture data) - soil moisture is relatively extreme where potential predictability is high - moderate skill (in places) even out to 2 months Ongoing GLACE2 experiments from KNMI, ECMWF and ETH (Sonia Seneviratne, Gianpaolo Balsamo and Bart vd Hurk) are being performed for in order to check possible signals emerging from known strong droughts in this period. Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) Links between GLASS and S2S: GLACE2 has given us some measure of and an approach to quantify the impact of land initialization on forecasts  great care should be taken in the land is spun-up and initialized (and any diversity therein). PILDAS will evaluate operational NWP centers' approaches to land DA, which ultimately will impact S2S-scale prediction through improved initialization (and ultimately coupled DA). PALS Benchmarking is ramping up and through WGNE, the operational NWP centers have expressed interest in quantifying the 'goodness' of their land model components. In order to do this, one needs a majority of the list of the suggested variables, to benchmark the energy/water/carbon cycle.

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Surface Snow Snow depth (z) Snow albedo Hydrology Total runoff River storage (if applicable) Aquifer storage (if applicable) Lake/flooded zone st. (if applicable) Static Land Surface Data: Land Cover Type Soil Type (z) Soil Porosity (max soil moisture) (z) Wilting Point (min soil moisture) (z) Soils Soil Heat Flux Soil Moisture (&Temperature) at layer depths (or sfc vs. root zone) (z) Soil ice content/frozen fraction (z) Evaporation Components Total Evaporation (if both sublimation and liquid evaporation are concurrent) Evaporation from Bare Soil Transpiration Interception Loss Vegetation Some measure of Vegetation Coverage (LAI, GVF, etc.) Prognostic Carbon Stores (z) GLASS-S2S: Suggested Addtional Land Surface Variables: Color key: (z) Vertical dep. Secondary specified

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Dr. Joseph A. Santanello, Co-chair Hydrological Sciences Branch NASA/GSFC Greenbelt, Maryland USA Dr. Aaron A. Boone, Co-chair Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CNRM-GAME, Météo-France Toulouse, France GLASS Contacts: Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK Some GLACE2 references: Koster, R.D., S. P. P. Mahanama, T. J. Yamada, Gianpaolo Balsamo, A. A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P. A. Dirmeyer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C. T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J.-H. Jeong, W.-S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W. J. Merryfield, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart, and E. F. Wood (2011): The Second Phase of the Global Land- Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill; J.Hydrometeorol., in press. Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Balsamo, R.D. Koster, S.I. Seneviratne en H. Camargo Jr, Soil moisture effects on seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast scores in Europe; Clim. Dyn., 2010, doi: /s Koster, R. D., S. Mahanama, T. Yamada, G. Balsamo, A.A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P. Dirmeyer, F. Doblas Reyes, G. Drewitt, C.T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J.H. Jeong, D.M. Lawrence, W.-S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Maleyshev, W.J. Merryfield, S.I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart and E.F. Wood (2010), Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02402, doi: /2009GL Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

Seasonal to Sub-seasonal prediction Meeting, Feb. 4-6, Exeter, UK GLACE2-CMIP5 (Sonia Seneviratne and Bart vd Hurk) Exp#1A and #1B of GLACE2-CMIP5 have been completed. This involved AR5 reruns of climate change projections using a soil moisture climatology versus using a seasonal transient cycle of soil moisture and evaluated during the period. -3 groups have completed (GFDL, ECHAM, CESM) the full analysis and papers have been submitted. -Future phases of experiments involve land cover change. Highlights show that the imposed SM anomalies show similar regions as those projecting drought increase, and a larger impact of soil moisture change on daily max temperature. - Precipitation changes are less clear, and additional analysis will be conducted to analyze the feedbacks and water balance (E-P). This is expected to be completed over the next 12 months. Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)