Long-Term Electricity Report 1 Susan Gray September 27, 2010

Long-Term Electricity Report 2 Executive Order Identify approaches to meet Maryland’s long-term electricity needs and to achieve a clean, reliable, and affordable energy future Executive Order (EO) analysis will include: –Existing and planned electric generating capacity –Demand response –Electricity-based transportation –Existing and planned electric transmission –Conventional and renewable generating capacity additions (including small-scale distributed generation) –Fuel-switching –Energy conservation and efficiency –Smart grid –Energy storage technologies Not a planning document and will not recommend policy

Long-Term Electricity Report EO evaluation criteria: –Long-term cost and cost stability (including congestion costs) –Supply reliability –Transmission and distribution issues –Minimization of adverse environmental and land-use impacts –Consistency with state and federal environmental laws Solicit input and comments from a wide range of stakeholders Hold public meetings prior to completion of the report Final Report – December 1, 2011 Update the report every 5 years 3

Long-Term Electricity Report Preliminary Analysis Approach Use Ventyx Integrated model outputs –Generating capacity changes (retirements, additions, retrofits) –Capacity prices & zonal LMPs –REC and emissions allowance prices –Emissions of pollutants (CO2, SO2, NOx) –Generation and fuel sources by zone Use PJM energy and demand forecasts (adjust for demand response and EE/EC) 4

Long-Term Electricity Report Building on other past and ongoing efforts MEA’s Maryland Energy Outlook Maryland PSC’s SB400 Final Report to the General Assembly - and Supplement Long-term Electricity Report Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council Transmission Options Study MDE/MEA/PSC Maryland Multi-pollutant analysis Maryland PSC’s 10-Year Plan

Long-Term Electricity Report Preliminary Analysis Approach (cont.) 7 + potential base case scenarios to be run along with 16 + alternative scenarios 6 Base Case 1: PJM load forecast adjusted for demand response in years 4-20, EE/EC legislation, and smart meters; current power plant capacity adjusted for highly likely plants in the PJM queue; and, renewable projects sufficient to meet MD RPS Base Case 2: Base Case 1 plus Calvert Cliffs 3 National carbon legislation Base Case 3: Base Case 1 plus PATH MAPP Base Case 4: Base Case 1 plus PATH Base Case 5: Base Case 1 plus MAPP Base Case 6: Base Case 1 plus Calvert Cliffs 3 Base Case 7: Base Case 1 plus Calvert Cliffs 3 PATH & MAPP National carbon legislation

Long-Term Electricity Report Preliminary Analysis Approach (cont.) Possible alternative scenarios run on different base cases 7 Base Cases 1, 2, 3, 7 1. High Renewables Development (on-shore & off-shore wind, solar, biomass) Base Cases 1, 2, 3, 7 2. Medium Renewables Development Base Cases 1, 7 3. High Gas Prices Base Cases 1, 2, 3, 7 4. Aggressive Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EE/EC) Base Cases 1, 7 5. Climate Change (weather forecast that incorporates climate change)

Long-Term Electricity Report Step #1 – get the assumptions right and make the process transparent. Step #2 – make the model runs. 8 Use PPRAC as advisory committee during development of the report.

Long-Term Electricity Report Based on informal inputs received from several PPRAC members and on-going research: –EmPOWER Maryland goals - met in the base cases or reflect less- than-full achievement based on current approved programs? –Potential additional scenarios for high electric vehicle penetration? –Mix of renewable generating capacity for high renewables cases (how much off-shore & on-shore wind, solar, other)? –Renewable Portfolio Standard – re: solar carve out - met in the base cases or reflect less-than-full achievement?

Long-Term Electricity Report Schedule Assumptions completed & documented – December 2010 Receive PJM 2011 Forecast and begin runs – January 2011 Preliminary Draft Report – March 2011 –Introductory and background sections –Descriptions of models and development of model input parameters –Results of base case runs (w/o all alternative scenarios) Draft report – late April 2011 –Followed by a public meeting Final draft report – late Summer/Fall 2011 Followed by a public meeting Final Report – December 1,

Long-Term Electricity Report 11 Questions?