1 Soil Moisture Assimilation in NCEP Global Forecast System Weizhong Zheng 1, Jerry Zhan 2, Jiarui Dong 1, Michael Ek 1 1 Environmental Modeling Center,

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Presentation transcript:

1 Soil Moisture Assimilation in NCEP Global Forecast System Weizhong Zheng 1, Jerry Zhan 2, Jiarui Dong 1, Michael Ek 1 1 Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/EMC), National Weather Service, NOAA 2 National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service/Satellite Applications and Research (NESDIS/STAR), NOAA 3rd COSMOS Workshop, December 2012 University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP), College Park, Maryland 2

 The simplified ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) was embedded in the NCEP GFS to assimilate satellite soil moisture observation.  Future plan: Test assimilation of COSMOS soil moisture measurements. Data assimilation via the NASA Land Information System (LIS)  Other in situ soil moisture data sets/networks, e.g. Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN; and others identified by the International Soil Moisture Network (  KEY REQUIREMENT FOR NWP OPERATIONS: RELIABLE, NEAR-REALTIME Soil Moisture Data assimilation in NCEP GFS

 Method: A Simple Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) embedded in latest version of GFS latest version  Assimilation time period: 00Z May 1 – June 18, (GFS/GSI)  Experiments: CTL: Control run EnKF: Sensitivity run  Perturbations: Precipitation, 4 layer soil moisture states Testing with SMOS Soil Moisture

GFS_CTL EnKF-CTL GFS_EnKF SMOS Comparison of soil moisture 18Z, 1-17 June 2012

GFS Top Layer SM Validation With USDA-SCAN Measurements 1-17 of June, 2012 East CONU S (28 sites) West CONU S (25 sites) Whole CONU S RMSEBiasCorr-CoefRMSEBiasCorr-CoefRMSEBiasCorr-Coef CTL EnKF

Surface skin Temperature 2 m temperature Comparison of Tsfc, T2m 18Z, 1-17 June 2010 SMOS soil moisture assimilation generally decreased GFS surface temperature forecasts

Sensible Heat FluxLatent Heat Flux Comparison of SHF and LHF 18Z, 1-17 June 2010 SMOS soil moisture assimilation increased GFS latent heat flux and decreased sensible heat flux estimates

EnKF: 60-84h EnKF: h CTL: 60-84hObs Precipitation forecast 24h Accum (mm) Ending at 12Z 4 June 2012 CTL: h Improved !

Topography, Soils Land Cover, Vegetation Properties Meteorological Forecasts, Analyses, and/or Observations Snow Soil Moisture Temperature Land Surface Models Data Assimilation Modules Soil Moisture & Temperature Evaporation Sensible Heat Flux Runoff Snowpack Properties Inputs Outputs Physics Applications Weather/ Climate Water Resources Homeland Security Military Ops Natural Hazards NASA Land Information System From Christa Peters-Lidard (2007)

Assimilating SMOS in NCEP GFS Improved GFS deeper layer soil moisture estimates comparing with in situ measurements reduced GFS temperature forecast biases positively; increased latent heat and decreased sensible heat fluxes for most CONUS regions; had positve impact on precipitation forecasts. Future: assimilate SMAP (remote sensing), COSMOS & other in situ measurements Results Summary