Farmers’ Perception, Adaptation and Response Ernest L. Molua (University of Buea, Cameroon)

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 2

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 3 Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture Schlenker and Lobell (2010) Impacts…

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 4 Projected ranges of climate change impacts on African agriculture, expressed as change in percent relative to present conditions

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 5 Responses to climate change

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change Future temperature increase Year  C a b o v e p r e - i n d u s t r i a l g l o b a l m e a n t e m p e r a t u r e Business as usual Stabilization scenario Need to Adapt and Mitigate at the Same Time NASA/GISS

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 7 Quantifying Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change Settlement Food Health Ecosystems Water Sensitivity sectorsCoping and Adaptive Capacity sectors Economics Human Resources Environment National Baseline Estimates and Projections of Sectoral Indicators, Sensitivity and Coping-Adaptive Capacity, and Vulnerability-Resilience Response Indicators to Climate Change Sensitivity Indicators Coping-Adaptive Capacity Indicators R. Moss: 2001

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 8 Integrated vulnerability/adaptation Source: Bohle, Watts, Downing

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 9 Types of adaptation Reactive and anticipatory adaptation –Reactive institutions, individuals, plants and animals make in response to climate change, after the fact. –Anticipatory deliberate decisions to prepare for potential effects of climate change; i.e. taken in advance of climate change, before the fact. –requires foresight and planning, whereas reaction does not require but may involve foresight and planning. Autonomous and planned adaptation –Autonomous adaptation natural or spontaneous adjustments in the face of a changing climate –Planned adaptation conscious intervention, e.g. building sea walls. –may be used to influence (autonomous) adaptation by other actors

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 10 Strategies to reduce sensitivity or increase coping capacity

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 11 Examples of Agricultural Adaptation Crop diversification Introduction of new crops Extensification of most hardy crops Development of irrigated agriculture/Improved irrigation efficiency Shifting planting dates Reduction of post-harvest losses Soil fertilisation Irrigation Training programmes and dissemination Research and development of new (salinity and drought resistant) crops

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 12 Adaptation strategies can be categorized into four major categories Agricultural techniques to adapt to changes in rainfall regime, which include e.g. seed selection, adapt planting dates, adapt fertilizer application, adapt feed techniques, improve food storage facilities, change of pastoral system; Water management techniques to adapt to changes in rainfall regime, which include e.g. use of water harvesting techniques, rehabilitate terraces, improve irrigation techniques, improve watering sites in pastoral areas; Diversification techniques in order to diversify the income sources, which include e.g. temporal or permanent migration, use of alternative sources for fuel wood, home-garden agriculture, changes in the consumption pattern or reductions of livestock herds; and Communal pooling techniques, which include e.g. reforestation, rangeland preservation, communal food storage facilities or local water management rules.

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 13 Bryan et al: 2011

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 14 Constraints to Adaptation Bryan et al: 2011

10/17/2015Training on Ecomomic Analyses of Climate Change 15 Framework for selection, evaluation and prioritizing adaptation practices