Spatial Demography Spatial Demography Lectures I. Basic Principles and Measures of Demography II. Types and Patterns of Disease III. Infectious Diseases, Epidemics, and Spatial Diffusion Models IV. Spatial Population Dynamics* V. World Population Problems and Prospects

Spatial Demography - I. Basic Principles and Measures, A A. Basic Principles Definitions: – demography, multistate/multiregional, population geography – spatial epidemiology and medical geography – Halley - Bills of Mortality – science of population; size, distribution, structure, and change. Spatial distribution of population and demographics events is uneven. “At-risk principle” (how should the rate be constructed?)

Spatial Demography - I. Basic Principles and Measures, B B. Demographic Accounting Equation P(t+1)=P(t) +B(t,t+1) -D(t,t-1) {natural change} +I(t,t+1) -E(t,t+1) {net migration} Internal versus international migration Composition of immigration Example: California

C. Constructing and Interpreting Rates Demographic Rates & Measures: Rate - the frequency of occurrence of a demographic event for a population at risk over a given time period. Crude Birth Rate (CBR): annual number of live births per 1000 population. Total Fertility Rate (TFR): average number of children that would be born to each woman if, during her childbearing years, she bore children at the current year’s rate for women that age. Crude Death Rate (CDR): annual number of deaths per 1000 population. Expectation of Life at Birth (or Age X) (e o ): Spatial Demography - I. Basic Principles and Measures, C.

Example 1: CBR> CDRnatural (pop.) increase CBR<CDRnatural (pop.) decrease Syria (CBR=33, CDR=6) natural increase=27 per thousand or 2.7% Doubling time: P(t+n)=P(t) e rn P(t) doubles when e rn =2n=ln(2)/r Syria: n=ln(2)/.027 =.693/.027=25.7 years Spatial Demography - I. Basic Principles and Measures, C. Rates

Example 2: CBR> CDRnatural (pop.) increase CBR<CDRnatural (pop.) decrease Afghanistan (CBR=42, CDR=17) natural increase=25 per thousand or 2.5% Doubling time: n=ln(2)/.027 =.693/.025=27.7 years Spatial Demography - I. Basic Principles and Measures, C. Rates

Example 3: CBR> CDRnatural (pop.) increase CBR<CDRnatural (pop.) decrease Japan (CBR=10, CDR=8) natural increase=2 per thousand or 0.2% Doubling time: n=ln(2)/.027 =.693/.002=347 years Spatial Demography - I. Basic Principles and Measures, C. Rates

Spatial Demography - I. Basic Principles and Measures, D. D. Spatial Patterns and Risk Factors International comparisons – Population distribution, density – Expectation of life – Infant & child mortality

Regional Variation in Birth and Death Rates High birth rates: Africa & Southwest Asia Low birth rates: North America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, China Transitional birth rates: Latin America, High death rates: Africa & Southwest Asia Low death rates: Most of the developed world. Population Geography - Processes and Cycles of Change

Regional Variation in Growth Rates India 2.6 down to 1.9 Africa 2.4 up to 2.8 (contribution of Muslim societies) China declined to 1.0 Continuing rapid growth in Southeast Asia South America from 3.0 down to 1.7 Population Geography - Processes and Cycles of Change

Major World Population Concentrations East Asia (China, Korea, Vietnam, Japan) – China 1.3 billion – Predominance of farming – coastal and valley distribution Population Geography - Processes and Cycles of Change South Asia (1.5 billion; India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan) – India most populous (projected 1.6 billion in 2150) – Ganges River – Bangladesh (120 million in Iowa, rural sq.mile) – Physical barriers

Major World Population Concentrations (cont.) Europe (700 million) – European coal fields – Dense settlement in mountains regions – Urbanization (Germany 85%, U.K. 90%, France 74%) Population Geography - Processes and Cycles of Change North America (East-central U.S. & southeastern Canada) – Urbanization – Boston to Washington corridor, Chicago agglomeration Other moderate concentrations (Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Nile Valley) Earth at night, world flight.

Major World Population Concentrations (cont.) Some Generalizations – 90% north of equator, 66% mid-latitudes – 50% people live on 5% of available land – lowland concentrations – 66% of pop. within 500km. of the ocean. Population Geography - Processes and Cycles of Change

Spatial Demography - I. Basic Principles and Measures, D. D. Spatial Patterns and Risk Factors (cont.) National comparisons: – U.S. County Demographics – Growth rates – Dependency ratios – Population centroid Age-, cause-specific death rates Spatial versus non-spatial ‘risk factors’

Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A A. Disease Categories and Spatial Incidence Infectious diseases (micro- and macro-parasitism) – examples: malaria, AIDS, yellow fever, influenza Chronic (degenerative) diseases – examples: cancer, heart disease, arthritis Genetic (inherited) diseases – examples: hemophilia, sickle-cell anemia, lactose intolerance.