Probability Notes Probability: How likely it is that a particular event will occur. When the outcomes are equally likely, the probability of an event is.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Simple Probability and Odds

Advertisements

Gl: Students will be expected to conduct simple experiments to determine probabilities G2 Students will be expected to determine simple theoretical probabilities.

Probability Lesson

Probability Vocabulary.

Probability What are your Chances? Overview Probability is the study of random events. The probability, or chance, that an event will happen can be described.

1 Lesson Expressing Probability. 2 Lesson Expressing Probability California Standard: Statistics, Data Analysis and Probability 3.3 Represent.

Bell Work A card is drawn at random from the cards shown and not replaced. Then, a second card is drawn at random. Find each probability. 1. P(two even.

What are the chances of that happening?. What is probability? The mathematical expression of the chances that a particular event or outcome will happen.

10.1 & 10.2 Probability & Permutations. WARM UP:

An outcome is a possible result An event is a specific outcome Random means all outcomes are equally likely to occur or happen. random = fair A favorable.

Experimental Probability of Simple Events

Topic 1: Probability and Sample Space

P ROBABILITY Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. For example – Today there is a 60% chance of rain. The odds of winning the.

Bell Work Suppose 10 buttons are placed in a bag (5 gray, 3 white, 2 black). Then one is drawn without looking. Refer to the ten buttons to find the probability.

Estimating Probabilities by Collecting Data

Probability: Simple and Compound Independent and Dependent Experimental and Theoretical.

Level34567 Probability Skills I can use the probability words impossible, certain and even chance to describe the probability of an event occurring. I.

Notes on PROBABILITY What is Probability? Probability is a number from 0 to 1 that tells you how likely something is to happen. Probability can be either.

Chapter 6 Lesson 9 Probability and Predictions pgs What you’ll learn: Find the probability of simple events Use a sample to predict the actions.

8-1 Introduction to ProbabilityIntroduction to Probability 8-2 Experimental ProbabilityExperimental Probability 8-3 Theoretical ProbabilityTheoretical.

Bell Work FRACTIONDECIMALPERCENTWORDS. You have probably heard a weather forecaster say that the chance of rain tomorrow is 40%. Have you thought about.

Chapter 2: Understanding Probability 2.6 Theoretical & Experimental Probability.

Lesson 4-5 Objectives: To apply ratios to probability.

WOULD YOU PLAY THIS GAME? Roll a dice, and win $1000 dollars if you roll a 6.

Bell Work/Cronnelly. A= 143 ft 2 ; P= 48 ft A= 2.3 m; P= 8.3 m A= ft 2 ; P= 76 ft 2/12; 1/6 1/12 8/12; 2/3 6/12; 1/2 0/12 4/12; 1/3 5/12 6/12; 1/2.

AGENDA WARM-UP HOMEWORK QUESTIONS?? LESSON 12 CORRECTIONS LESSON 14 EXIT CARD.

Theoretical Probability. Turn to textbook page 239 to play Never a Six. (See handout for game board.)

Introduction to Probability – Experimental Probability.

Warm - up Lunch Choices Power point Probably Probability Guided Practice Chance and Probability Independent Practice Activity: Is This Fair? Probability.

Probability Revision Quiz. “I roll a normal dice and get a 7” This event is: Impossible a) b) c) d) Unlikely Even Chance Certain L3.

Have you ever played a game where everyone should have an equal chance of winning, but one person seems to have all the luck? Did it make you wonder if.

9-1 Probability An activity involving chance, such as rolling a cube, is called an experiment. Each repetition or observation of an experiment is a trial,

Probability What are your Chances? Warm Up Write each fraction in simplest form

WDYE? 3.4: Simulations Learning Target: I will design a simulation to find experimental probabilities. HW: Complete the WDYE Investigation 3.4 p. 12 and.

Probability and Odds PSSA Unit.

Lesson 10.3 – Experimental and Theoretical Probability

Today is Tuesday.

Bell Ringer Solve and combine like terms when possible.

Determining the theoretical probability of an event

Ratios, Rates and Percents

The Nature of Probability

Teacher Note You will be playing the Gee Whiz Everyone Wins Game.

= 4.802−1.3= 2.09(2.8)= Bell Work 8.84÷3.4= − 3 4 = Cronnelly.

2+6.1= 6.6−1.991= 0.7(5.416)= 8.92÷1.6= = Bell Work Cronnelly.

Skill Review Unique has a bag of marbles. There are 4 colors of marbles: red, blue, yellow, and green. The table shows the frequencies of marbles after.

Copy problems and work Name: Date: Period: Bell Work 4.62÷0.44=

Applying Ratios to Probability

Copy problems and work Name: Date: Period: Bell Work 4.62÷0.44=

Warm-Up Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 4

Probability and Chance

Bell Work Calculators okay to use but show your work!

Bell Work Cronnelly.

Investigation 2 Experimental and Theoretical Probability

5-8 Probability and Chance

video Warm-Up Lesson 14 Exit card

Presentation transcript:

Probability Notes Probability: How likely it is that a particular event will occur. When the outcomes are equally likely, the probability of an event is written as a ratio: P= Number of favorable outcomes Total number of outcomes Theoretical Probability = Probability that is determined on the basis of reasoning, not through experimentation. This is what you think WILL happen based on the situation. Experimental Probability = A probability calculated from the results of an experiment. This is what actually happens when you conduct the experiment.

If the event is impossible, its probability is O. Ex: The probability of drawing an 11 from cards numbered 1 to 10 is impossible. If an event is unlikely, equally likely, or likely, its probability is between 0 and 1. This can be written as a fraction, decimal, ratio, or percent. Ex: The probability that you will draw a 2 or a 4 from cards numbered 1 to 10 is likely. If an event is certain, its probability is 1. Ex: The probability that you will draw a card from 1 to 10 from a set of cards numbered 1 to 10 is certain.

Find the probability of rolling a 5 on a die. Find the probability of rolling an even number on a die. Find the probability of rolling a seven on a die. Find the probability of rolling an even or odd number on a die.

Theoretical Probabilities Investigation 4 – How Likely Is It? Follow Up to Problem 4.1 oThe probabilities you computed in part B are called experimental probabilities because you found them by experimenting. oThe fractions you found in part D are called theoretical probabilities because you analyze the possible outcomes rather than actually experimenting. If all the outcomes of an action are equally likely, then the theoretical probability of an event is done with this formula: number of favorable outcomes number of possible outcomes 1. Compare the exp. prob. and theor. prob. you found – are they close to one another? Should they be? Why? Why not? 2. When you drew a block did each block have an equally likely chance of being chosen? Explain. 3. When you drew a block did each color have an equally likely chance of being chosen? Explain. 4.In the game show contestants select blocks randomly from the bucket. What do you think randomly means?

Theoretical Probabilities Investigation 4 – How Likely Is It? Problem 4.2 Drawing More Blocks Your teacher put eight blocks into a bucket. All blocks are the same size. Three are yellow, four are red, and one is blue. 1.Use your sheet for problem 4.2 to answer the questions.

Theoretical Probabilities Investigation 4 – How Likely Is It? Problem 4.3 Winning the Bonus Prize All the winners from the Gee Whiz Everyone Wins game show get an opportunity to compete for a bonus prize. Each winner draws one block from each of two bags, both of which contain one red, one yellow, and one blue block. The contestant must predict which color she or he will draw from each of the two bags. IF the prediction is correct the contestant wins a $10,000 bonus prize! Use this information to solve problem 4.3. Follow Up Question: What if you are on the show and you’ve already won a mountain bike, a CD player, a vacation to Hawaii, and a one year supply of Glimmer toothpaste. You lost the bonus round, but the host makes an offer: you can draw from the two bags again, but this tme you do not predict the color. If the two colors match you will win $5000. If they do not match you must return the prizes you’ve won. Would you accept this offer? Why or why not?