Pliocene Climate Modelling, and the onset of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation 1)The Pliocene 2)Expansion of Greenland glaciation in the Late Pliocene – uncertainties.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island John King Professor of Oceanography Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode.

Advertisements

Dan LuntEGU 2013Dan Lunt Can Cretaceous and Eocene Data Inform Estimates of Future Climate Sensitivity? Dan Lunt, Claire Loptson, Paul Markwick Introduction.

New estimates of Earth system sensitivity from the Cenozoic Introduction: Earth system sensitivity Case study 1: The mid Pliocene Case study 2: The PETM.

Lunt et al., EGU 2008 Atmospheric CO 2 decrease led to Greenland glaciation in the Late Pliocene D.J. Lunt, G.L. Foster, A.M. Haywood, E.J. Stone Motivation.

A mechanism for the orbital pacing of Eocene hyperthermals Dan Lunt, Andy Ridgwell, Appy Sluijs, Jim Zachos Stephen Hunter, Alan Haywood Introduction.

EGU 2007, CR140 Dan Lunt Introduction. GCM and ice sheet simulations. Conclusions. Other mechanisms for inception. Future plans. The closure of the Panama.

Eocene Climate Modelling, and the causes of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 1)Introduction to the PETM 2)Modelling the PETM 3)Modelling the.

Orbital Theory of Ice Ages

Comparing hypotheses for Pliocene tropical warmth Chris Brierley & Alexey Fedorov Yale University.

Palaeo-Constraints on Future Climate Change Mat Collins, School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter Tamsin Edwards.

1 Back into the Icehouse GEOL 3100 Christina Gallup.

Lecture 7: Back into the Icehouse: Last 55 Myr (Chapter 6)

1.Greenhouse Effect 2.The CO 2 Cycle, Long-Term Climate Change 3.Ice Ages and Short-Term Climate Change 4.Human-Induced Climate Change.

Paleoclimatology and Climate History – HS 2009 Pliocene, El Niño and Northern / Southern Hemisphere Glaciation Pliocene, El Niño and Northern /

The importance of Pliocene time slices for environmental synthesis and climate modelling Alan M. Haywood Co-authors: Caroline Prescott, Aisling Dolan,

Alan M. Haywood 1, Daniel J. Hill 1/2, Aisling M. Dolan 1, Daniel J. Lunt 3 and PlioMIP Participants 1 School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds,

1 Changing Earth’s Climate. `The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate ' Intergovernmental Panel.

When Did the Anthropocene Begin

Time scale of climate change Rates of forcing vs. response.

Lecture 5: Plate Tectonics and Climate Last 550 Myr (chapter 4)

O. Elison Timm 1 A. Timmermann 1,4 T. Friedrich 1 A. Abe-Ouchi 2,3 J. Knies 5 Forced response of a Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet model to climate changes.

Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.

Global Warming Winter Storming Ellen E. Martin Dept of Geological Sciences Snow angel Ocala, Florida, Jan. 8, 2010.

5. Future climate predictions Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios Temperature: +1.8°C (B1) to +4.0°C.

Paleoclimatology Why is it important? Angela Colbert Climate Modeling Group October 24, 2011.

Chapter 14 Climate. Defining Climate Climate = long term weather patterns… – Averages and variations in temp., precip., wind, etc. Normals: – 30+ year.

AGU, San Francisco, 2013 Modelled insights into climate dynamics of the Cretaceous and Paleogene greenhouse Dan Lunt, Claire Loptson, Alex Farnsworth,

Plate Tectonics and Global Glaciation Tectonic plate motions move the continents and determine the form of the ocean basins. Paleoclimatologists have suggested.

Supplementary information to chapter 5.8: Modelling the end of an interglacial (MIS 1, 5, 7, 9, 11) Claudia Kubatzki*, Martin Claussen**, Reinhard Calov,

Eocene ENSO Matthew Huber Purdue University Breckenridge 2003, PaleoWorking Group All rights reserved by author as applicable.

 Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years.

The von Post Lecture: Can Models Reproduce Climates of the Past? Alan Haywood, Aisling Dolan, Stephen Hunter, Daniel Hill, Ulrich Salzmann, Harry Dowsett,

Quaternary Environments Climate and Climatic Variation.

Sensitivity of glacial inception to orbital and greenhouse gas climate forcing G. Vettoretti and W.R. Peltier 2010/01/05 大氣所碩一闕珮羽.

Climate Change and Global Warming Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Symposium on Energy for the 21 st Century.

Erin L. McClymont Department of Geography, Durham University Aurora Elmore (Durham University), Benjamin Petrick (Newcastle University), Sev Kender (British.

Studying Paleoclimate to Reduce Climate Uncertainty

Unit VII. Global Warming Is the planet warming? How do we know? How confident are we? If it is warming, how long has it been warming? How unusual is the.

Global Energy Balance and the Greenhouse Effect What determines Earth’s surface temperature? What is the history of CO 2 on Earth? ultravioletinfrared.

Long-Term Changes in Global Sea Level Craig S. Fulthorpe University of Texas Institute for Geophysics John A. and Katherine G. Jackson School of Geosciences.

Understanding Pliocene Climate: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Alan Haywood, Aisling Dolan, Stephen Hunter, Daniel Hill, Ulrich Salzmann, Harry.

14.3 – CLIMATIC CHANGES. Ice Age  Periods of extensive glacial coverage  Lots of ice sheets  Average global temperature decreased by about 5°C  Most.

Carbon and Climate System Coupling on Timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene Scott C. Doney1 and David S. Schimel2.

 In the mid-Pleistocene, the period of glacial cycles changed from 41kyr to 100kyr.  The zonal SST gradient increased during MPT due to the cooling in.

Introduction, and history of Eocene modelling Atmosphere-Ocean coupled models ‘EoMIP’ Solutions? – sensitivities to uncertainties Modelling Eocene Climates:

The Pliocene Warm Interval: Is It An Analogue For Future Warming? The Pliocene Epoch (5.3 to 2.6 Ma) is the last “great global warming” before the beginning.

CLIMATE CHANGE Past and future impacts on the landscape and drainage of the Yorkshire Dales (Part 1) Dr Aidan Foley.

A GCM Reconstruction of the Last Glacial Inception Megan Essig 1, Francis Otieno 2, Robert Oglesby 1, David Bromwich 2 1 Department of Geosciences, University.

Global Climate Change: Past and Future Le Moyne College Syracuse, New York February 3, 2006 Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems.

Climate Change Monday, November 5th. Anthropogenic Climate Change Thomas Jefferson, 1781 Notes on the State of Virginia –Springs are warmer –Less winter.

For the last 60 My, the climate has been ‘cooling down’, and becoming more and more variable over short time scales. (note log time scale).

Modelling Ancient Earth Climate Alan Haywood School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds With thanks to Paul Valdes, Jane Francis, Dan Lunt, Vicky.

Climate Model Tests of the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin Bill Ruddiman (U. Virginia),

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming 大氣所碩一闕珮羽 Tamsin L. Edwards.

©2010 Elsevier, Inc. 1 Chapter 13 Cuffey & Paterson.

Climate L2 Greenhouse gases current interglacial Last glacial.

AGU, San Francisco, 2013 The role of palaeogeography in controlling Pliocene climate and climate variability Dan Lunt, Paul Markwick Gavin Foster, Alan.

Can Geoengineering save the Greenland ice sheet?

Mountains, climate, and carbon

Pleistocene Glaciation in the Pacific Northwest

Modelling Ancient Earth Climates Manchester Geologist Association

Evolution of the Asian monsoon from the Cretaceous to the modern – a modelling study. Dan Lunt, Alex Farnsworth, Claire Loptson, Paul Markwick “How has.

D.J. Lunt, G.L. Foster, A.M. Haywood, E.J. Stone Motivation

The Cenozoic Era Geology 103.

Modelling Climate and Water Isotope Signatures of El Niño in the Pliocene Julia Tindall and Alan Haywood AGU Fall Meeting 15th December 2015.

Global Changes in Climate

Earth’s climate through time

Modelling Holocene Climate Variability & the Green Sahara

The importance of the Pliocene and PlioMIP

Fig. 8. Mean annual cycle of the difference in mean SAT north of 60°N between the 5 simulations with 500 ppm pCO2 and αmin = 0.5, and the 5 with 400 ppm.

Presentation transcript:

Pliocene Climate Modelling, and the onset of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation 1)The Pliocene 2)Expansion of Greenland glaciation in the Late Pliocene – uncertainties. 3)Uplift and North American Pliocene glacial inception. 4)Impact of changing Cenozoic ice sheets on climate sensitivity.

Zachos et al, Nature, 2001 Orientation…

From Rainer Zahn Legacy of ODP. Climate evolution - the last 5 million years

Expansion in Greenland glaciation at ~2.75 Ma Bartoli et al, EPSL, 2005

The mid-Pliocene ~3.3 – 3.0 Ma Enhanced CO 2 : Best estimate 360 – 400ppmv Reconstructions of: e.g. vegetation, ice, SST Haywood et al, Geoscientific Model Development, 2010

The mid-Pliocene represents an accessible example of a world that is similar in many respects to what models estimate could be the Earth of the late 21st Century. Taken together, the average of the warmest times during the mid-Pliocene presents a view of the equilibrium state of a globally warmer world, in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations were likely higher than pre-industrial values. Jansen et al chapter 6, pages 440 to 442.

A palaeoclimate modellers paradise

(1) Closure of Panama Seaway (2) Tectonic Uplift (3) Termination of Permanent El Nino (4) Decrease in CO 2 4 main hypotheses

(1) Closure of Panama Seaway Ruddiman, p163 Bartoli et al, 2005

(2) Tectonic Uplift Ruddiman and Kutzbach, 1989 Parrish et al, 2007

(3) Termination of Permanent El Nino e.g. Wara et al, 2005 Molnar and Cane, 2002 Fedorov et al, 2010

(4) Decrease in CO 2 Seki et al, EPSL, 2010 Raymo et al, Geology, 1988 Changes in weathering/uplift:

Pliocene Control: Modern continental configuration and bathymetry. Orbital parameters as modern CO 2 = 400ppmv. PRISM orography, ice-sheets, and vegetation: ΔT global = 3.1 o C

400ppmv to 280ppmv… Changes to the model for each hypothesis tested…

PanamaENSORockiesCO 2 Temp Precip GCM results…

Ice sheet model results… Lunt et al, Nature, 2008

But… Never trust a single model simulation Stone et al, The Cryosphere, in press

So, what is robust? 21% of simulations show large (>3 m) change due to CO 2 18% of simulations show small (<0.2 m) change due to CO 2 100% of simulations show a greater change due to CO 2 than any other mechanism.

DeConto et al, Nature, 2008

Vizcaino et al, Palaeoceanography, 2010

Foster et al, Climate of the Past, in press Possible role for Canadian Rockies uplift?

Possible Priming mechanism for Cordilleran ice sheet. And possible explanation for non- glaciation in the low CO2 of the Miocene:

Summary Enhancement of Greenland glaciation around 2.75 Ma Many hypotheses including CO 2, Panama, Rockies, ENSO … Modelling work indicates CO 2 is primary driver, with orbital modulation. BUT, magnitude of effect is uncertain. Maybe role for Canadian Rockies uplift in determining timing of more general NH glaciation…..and non-glaciation during low CO 2 time periods

Problems / Challenges for pre-Quaternary ice sheets and climate… pre ice-core multiproxy CO 2 reconstructions Interpretation of records – proxy modelling Development and use of Earth System Models – especially with fully coupled ice sheets Proper treatment of uncertainties in modelling Can pre-quaternary data ever constrain ice sheet models?