3 - 5 December 2009 Alexander A. Dynkin IMEMO Director

Oil price dynamics WTIdated Brent US$ per barrel % change to the previous month/period US$ per barrel % change to the previous month/period November ,252-26,7 December ,240-23,8 January ,41,4438,78,7 February ,343-0,3 March ,647477,47,4 April ,63,6 7,87,8 May ,95714,2 June ,56932,6 July ,464-7 August ,87312,5 September ,368-6,7 October ,1737,6 November ,3775,3 Jan – Nov ,560-41,1 Slide 1

WTI Price: confidence intervals derived from options (as on November 27, 2009) Slide 2

Moving window correlation of WTI and S&P500 returns, beginning of 2007 – 27 November 2009 Slide 3

World oil demand, mln barrels per day Slide 4

OECD countries oil commercial stocks, October 2005 – October 2009 г., days Slide 5

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity, January 2005 – October 2009 Slide 6