Young Expert‘s Workshop. Berlin: Hertie School of Governance.

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Presentation transcript:

Young Expert‘s Workshop

Berlin: Hertie School of Governance

Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Berlin: Hertie School of Governance

Migration Birth Death NGO ? Population Structure Demography

Fertility Behavior in Russia and Germany

Relevance

Fall of Berlin Wall Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Legal Unification Relevance “Jetzt wächst zusammen, was zusammengehört.” Willy Brandt, 10. Nov. 1989

Constitutional „Right to Work“ „Labor Market Integration“ of Women Secularization Relevance

Fertility Trends

Total Fertility Rate West Germany

Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany

Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany

Monthly Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan months Fall of Berlin Wall East Germany West Germany Fertility Trends

Monthly Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan months Fall of Berlin Wall East Germany West Germany Fertility Trends

Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany

Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany

Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany Replacement Level

Fertility Trends Life Expectancy Men Russia East Germany West Germany Life Expectancy Women Russia East Germany West Germany Source: HMD

Fertility Trends Our population is declining … we need to raise the birth rate! (Putin 2006) The challenge of family policies is to facilitate family formation. (Deutscher Bundestag, 2006)

Fertility Trends Parental leave benefit reform Expansion of public day care Cash benefits for higher order births

Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate Russia East Germany

Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany

Data

Data: Generations and Gender Survey

Name of Survey:Generations and Gender Survey Interview mode:Face-to-face Sample:Ages Sample Size:10,000 per country Design:Panel Study (in several countries, incl. Russia) Data: Generations and Gender Survey

Wave 1Wave 2Wave Name of Survey:Generations and Gender Survey Interview mode:Face-to-face Sample:Ages Sample Size:10,000 per country Design:Panel Study (in several countries, incl. Russia) Data: Generations and Gender Survey

Family Structures

A Child Needs a Home with Mother and Father to Grow Up Happily Source: GGS, weigthed estimates 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Agree Undecided Disagree Family Structures

West Germany East Germany Russian Federation Married80%69%67% Divorced8% 17% Single12%22%10% Widowed1% 6% Total100% Marital Status of Mothers Note: The sample includes women who live with a child age 16 or younger in same household. Source: GGS – first wave Family Structures

West Germany East Germany Russian Federation Full-time22%43%64% Part-time35%23%3% Unemployed5%23%7% Other37%12%26% Total100% Employment Status of Mothers Note: The sample includes women who live with a child age 16 or younger in same household. Source: GGS, first wave Family Structures

Fertility Dynamics by Parity

Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Cohort Cohort Cohort East Germany First Birth

Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) Cohort Cohort Cohort % 25% 50% 75% 100% Age of Woman Russia First Birth

Cohort Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) West Germany East Germany Russia 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Age of Woman Source: GGS – First wave Birth Survey 2006 First Birth

Second Birth

Cohort Share of Two-Child Mothers by Age of First Child (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) Source: GGS – First wave Birth Survey 2006 Russia East Gemany West Germany 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Age of First Child Second Birth

Realization of Second Birth Intentions

2005 Realization of Birth Intentions Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years?

Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized?

Intention to Have Second Child Within Next 3 Years, Cohorts Source: GGS, weigthed estimates No Do not know Yes Has 2 children 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Realization of Birth Intentions

Intention to Have Second Child Within Next 3 Years, Cohorts Source: GGS, weigthed estimates No Do not know Yes Has 2 children 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Realization of Birth Intentions

Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized? Economic worries?

Financial Situation (Household Makes Ends Meet) Source: GGS, weigthed estimates 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Easy Somewhat difficult Difficult Realization of Birth Intentions

? Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized? Economic worries?

Data: The German Family Panel

2008/ / / / / / / / / /18 Name of Survey:German Family Panel Interview Mode:Face-to-face, CAPI & CASI Sample:Birth cohorts , , Sample Size:13,000 (anchor) respondents Type of Survey:Multi-Actor Panel Study Data: German Family Panel

Multi-Actor Anchor Data: German Family Panel

Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Data: German Family Panel

Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Children of Anchor FatherMother Data: German Family Panel

Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Children of Anchor FatherMother Data: German Family Panel 2008/ / / / / / / / / /18

Many thanks for your attention!

Fertility Desires IDYEAR IDEAL Anchor # # # # #120142

Fertility Desires IDYEAR IDEAL Anchor IDEAL Partner #120090no partner #120110no partner # # #

Source: GGS, weigthed estimates Realization of Birth Intentions Note: Unlike Table 1, this figure contains all respondents, irrespective of whether they were partnered in wave1. Positive indicates that the respondent had positive intentions to have a(nother) child within the next three years in wave 1. Uncertain & positive long term indicates that the respondent was uncertain to have a(nother) child within the next three years. but in general plans to have a(nother ) child. Negative & positive long term indicates that the respondent did not want a(nother) child within the next three years in wave 1. but in general plans to have a(nother ) child. Negative & negative long term indicates that the respondent did not want a(nother) child within the next three years and generally does not want any (further) children. Source: Russian GGS 1 and 2 waves; own calculations. Realization of Birth Intentions between 2005 and 2007, Russia