Young Expert‘s Workshop
Berlin: Hertie School of Governance
Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Berlin: Hertie School of Governance
Migration Birth Death NGO ? Population Structure Demography
Fertility Behavior in Russia and Germany
Relevance
Fall of Berlin Wall Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Legal Unification Relevance “Jetzt wächst zusammen, was zusammengehört.” Willy Brandt, 10. Nov. 1989
Constitutional „Right to Work“ „Labor Market Integration“ of Women Secularization Relevance
Fertility Trends
Total Fertility Rate West Germany
Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany
Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany
Monthly Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan months Fall of Berlin Wall East Germany West Germany Fertility Trends
Monthly Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan months Fall of Berlin Wall East Germany West Germany Fertility Trends
Total Fertility Rate West Germany East Germany
Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany
Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany Replacement Level
Fertility Trends Life Expectancy Men Russia East Germany West Germany Life Expectancy Women Russia East Germany West Germany Source: HMD
Fertility Trends Our population is declining … we need to raise the birth rate! (Putin 2006) The challenge of family policies is to facilitate family formation. (Deutscher Bundestag, 2006)
Fertility Trends Parental leave benefit reform Expansion of public day care Cash benefits for higher order births
Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate Russia East Germany
Fertility Trends Total Fertility Rate Russia West Germany East Germany
Data
Data: Generations and Gender Survey
Name of Survey:Generations and Gender Survey Interview mode:Face-to-face Sample:Ages Sample Size:10,000 per country Design:Panel Study (in several countries, incl. Russia) Data: Generations and Gender Survey
Wave 1Wave 2Wave Name of Survey:Generations and Gender Survey Interview mode:Face-to-face Sample:Ages Sample Size:10,000 per country Design:Panel Study (in several countries, incl. Russia) Data: Generations and Gender Survey
Family Structures
A Child Needs a Home with Mother and Father to Grow Up Happily Source: GGS, weigthed estimates 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Agree Undecided Disagree Family Structures
West Germany East Germany Russian Federation Married80%69%67% Divorced8% 17% Single12%22%10% Widowed1% 6% Total100% Marital Status of Mothers Note: The sample includes women who live with a child age 16 or younger in same household. Source: GGS – first wave Family Structures
West Germany East Germany Russian Federation Full-time22%43%64% Part-time35%23%3% Unemployed5%23%7% Other37%12%26% Total100% Employment Status of Mothers Note: The sample includes women who live with a child age 16 or younger in same household. Source: GGS, first wave Family Structures
Fertility Dynamics by Parity
Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Cohort Cohort Cohort East Germany First Birth
Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) Cohort Cohort Cohort % 25% 50% 75% 100% Age of Woman Russia First Birth
Cohort Share of Childless Women by Age (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) West Germany East Germany Russia 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Age of Woman Source: GGS – First wave Birth Survey 2006 First Birth
Second Birth
Cohort Share of Two-Child Mothers by Age of First Child (Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function) Source: GGS – First wave Birth Survey 2006 Russia East Gemany West Germany 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Age of First Child Second Birth
Realization of Second Birth Intentions
2005 Realization of Birth Intentions Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years?
Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized?
Intention to Have Second Child Within Next 3 Years, Cohorts Source: GGS, weigthed estimates No Do not know Yes Has 2 children 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Realization of Birth Intentions
Intention to Have Second Child Within Next 3 Years, Cohorts Source: GGS, weigthed estimates No Do not know Yes Has 2 children 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Realization of Birth Intentions
Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized? Economic worries?
Financial Situation (Household Makes Ends Meet) Source: GGS, weigthed estimates 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% West GermanyEast GermanyRussia Easy Somewhat difficult Difficult Realization of Birth Intentions
? Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years? Realization of Birth Intentions Second child realized? Economic worries?
Data: The German Family Panel
2008/ / / / / / / / / /18 Name of Survey:German Family Panel Interview Mode:Face-to-face, CAPI & CASI Sample:Birth cohorts , , Sample Size:13,000 (anchor) respondents Type of Survey:Multi-Actor Panel Study Data: German Family Panel
Multi-Actor Anchor Data: German Family Panel
Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Data: German Family Panel
Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Children of Anchor FatherMother Data: German Family Panel
Multi-Actor AnchorPartner Children of Anchor FatherMother Data: German Family Panel 2008/ / / / / / / / / /18
Many thanks for your attention!
Fertility Desires IDYEAR IDEAL Anchor # # # # #120142
Fertility Desires IDYEAR IDEAL Anchor IDEAL Partner #120090no partner #120110no partner # # #
Source: GGS, weigthed estimates Realization of Birth Intentions Note: Unlike Table 1, this figure contains all respondents, irrespective of whether they were partnered in wave1. Positive indicates that the respondent had positive intentions to have a(nother) child within the next three years in wave 1. Uncertain & positive long term indicates that the respondent was uncertain to have a(nother) child within the next three years. but in general plans to have a(nother ) child. Negative & positive long term indicates that the respondent did not want a(nother) child within the next three years in wave 1. but in general plans to have a(nother ) child. Negative & negative long term indicates that the respondent did not want a(nother) child within the next three years and generally does not want any (further) children. Source: Russian GGS 1 and 2 waves; own calculations. Realization of Birth Intentions between 2005 and 2007, Russia