2009 창업대전 글로벌 기업가정신 조사 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM) Min-Seok Cha, Ph.D. Senior Researcher, KAIST CIE Founder, InnovO Initiative Researcher, GEM Korea GEM Korea and Global Entrepreneurship Research Association 1.GEM 소개 2.GEM 역사 3.GEM 연구

1. GEM Intro : Background “Entrepreneurship is important for economic development” Need for better understanding of the links between entrepreneurship & growth, and the role of policy Lack of detailed internationally comparable data

© 2009, by the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association 1. GEM Intro: Purpose GEM focuses on three main objectives: –To measure ‘differences’ in the level of entrepreneurial activity between countries –To uncover “factors determining” national levels of entrepreneurial activity –To identify “policies that may enhance” national levels of entrepreneurial activity

1. What’s GEM: Unique Features Largest study on entrepreneurship in the world GEM focuses on individuals in the entrepreneurial process Monitoring entrepreneurship by conducting Adult Population Surveys –Minimum 2,000 per country –Allows exploring several types and phases of the entrepreneurial process Growing dataset –Over 1,000,000 data points between Numerous indicators can be extracted

1. What’s GEM: Unique Features GEM reports on special topics –Finance –Growth Expectation Entrepreneurship –Female Entrepreneurship –Entrepreneurship Education and Training Research method also applicable to regions & cities

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association 2. GEM History GEM was initiated in 1997 –Pioneers: Michael Hay (London) and Bill Bygrave (Babson) –Founding institutions: London Business School & Babson College First GEM report in 1999 –Principal Investigator: Paul Reynolds –10 countries in 1999, 31 countries in 2003 GERA established in 2004: consortium of participating national teams –GEM continues to expand, 65 countries involved since 1998 –Country micro-sites on New global sponsor in 2008 –Universidad del Desarollo (Santiago, Chile) New members and Sponsors in 2009

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association GEM Countries 1999

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association GEM Countries countries in 2008 More than 50 countries in 2009

GEM 2008 Countries Factor-driven economies Angola, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina*, Colombia*, Ecuador*, Egypt, India, Iran* Efficiency-driven economies Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Croatia**, Dominican Republic, Hungary**, Jamaica, Latvia, Macedonia, Mexico, Peru, Romania, Russia, Serbia, South Africa, Turkey, Uruguay Innovation-driven economies Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea Republic, Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Spain, United Kingdom, United States * Transition country: from factor-driven to efficiency-driven ** Transition country: from efficiency-driven to innovation-driven

올해로 11 년째, 10 th GEM annual report

3. GEM Research: Model and Report Revised GEM Conceptual Model –Integrate with model from Global Competitiveness Report that identifies three phases of economic development. –Consider three dynamic interactive components of entrepreneurship: attitudes, activity and aspirations Sketch the beginnings of a new Global Entrepreneurship Index –Work in progress by GEM researchers Zoltan Acs & Laszlo Szerb, consistent with revised GEM model

Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI) Acs and Szerb (2008) use 32 variables (19 from GEM) –To create 14 indicators forming –Three sub indices that capture Entrepreneurial activity Entrepreneurial aspiration Entrepreneurial attitudes –One ‘super’ index called GEI For all 64 countries that have participated in the GEM project across the years The index takes a value from 0 to 1

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association The GEI and per capita GDP

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association Characteristics and Implications of the GEI Correlations also positive with –Doing Business Index (World Bank) –Economic Freedom Index (World Heritage Foundation) –Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum) Relationships mostly non-linear Support for revised GEM model identifying three major phases of economic development Results may lead to new insights of how policy can affect productive entrepreneurship through the major phases of economic development

© 2009, Global Entrepreneurship Research Association Relationships with GDP and GCI

Building from the Previous GEM Conceptual Model Social, Cultural, Political Context Basic requirements -Institutions -Infrastructure -Macroeconomic stability -Health and primary education Efficiency enhancers -Higher education & training -Goods market efficiency -Labor market efficiency -Financial market sophistication -Technological readiness -Market size Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions -Entrepreneurial finance -Gov. entrepreneurship programs -Entrepreneurship education -R&D transfer -Commercial, legal infrastructure for entrepreneurship -Entry regulation General National Framework Conditions -Openness (External Trade) -Government (Extent, Role) -Financial Markets (Efficiency) -Technology, R&D (Level, Intensity) -Infrastructure (Physical) -Management (Skills) -Labor Markets (Flexible) -Institutions (Unbiased, Rule of Law) National Economic Growth (Jobs and Technical Innovation) Innovation and sophistication factors -Business sophistication -Innovation

The Revised GEM Conceptual Model Social, Cultural, Political Context Basic requirements -Institutions -Infrastructure -Macroeconomic stability -Health and primary education New plants, firm growth Established Firms (Primary Economy) National Economic Growth (Jobs and Technical Innovation) Efficiency enhancers -Higher education & training -Goods market efficiency -Labor market efficiency -Financial market sophistication -Technological readiness -Market size Innovation and entrepreneurship -Entrepreneurial finance -Gov. entrepreneurship programs -Entrepreneurship education -R&D transfer -Commercial, legal infrastructure for entrepreneurship -Entry regulation Attitudes: Perceived opportunities Perceived capacity Aspirations: Growth Innovation Social value creation Activity: Early-stage Persistence Exits Entrepreneurship GEM Adult Population Surveys (APS) GEM National Expert Surveys (NES)

Institutions, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Development Institutions are critical determinants of economic behavior and they can impose direct and indirect effects on the supply and demand of entrepreneurs Nexus among entrepreneurship, economic development, and institutions requires critical inquiry –Also to understand why the relative contributions of entrepreneurship can vary significantly across countries and regions

Entrepreneurial Activity GEM identifies different phases in the entrepreneurial process Early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA) is the phase centred around the birth of the firm; it includes the pre-startup phase. Potential entrepreneur: knowledge and skills Nascent entrepreneur: Involved in setting up a business Owner-manager of a new business (up to 3.5 years old) Owner-manager of an established business (more than 3.5 years old) Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) ConceptionFirm birthPersistence

e.g. Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity and the U-shape Relationship with Economic Development Decrease in necessity entrepreneurship Increase in opportunity entrepreneurship

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity Despite drop in perceptions no drop in early-stage entrepreneurial activity

Concluding GEM: entrepreneurial attitudes, activity, aspirations Individual level: adult population survey (APS) –Individual approach enables to explore types and phases of entrepreneurship Expert surveys (NES) provide useful additional information on the conditions of entrepreneurship Simple and transparent ‘indices’ (prevalence rates) –Research methodology applicable to regions & cities –General global entrepreneurship index can be derived by combining several GEM indices with indices on institutional quality

GEM Concluding “Entrepreneurs Defy Negative Sentiment as Global Crisis Grows” Entrepreneurs may change economic landscape in times of recession Exciting times for entrepreneurship research… …how does the recession impact the GEM indices and the newly developed GEI? For sure 2009 will be an interesting year for GEM!

Special Research Topics Entrepreneurship Education and Training (2008) Social Entrepreneurship (2009) Entrepreneurial Network Innovation Confidence Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI) Comparison with other Index

Appendix: GEM Entrepreneurship ‘Indices’ Three components –Attitudes & Perceptions –Activity Different phases Characteristics (demographics, sector structure, motivations, …) –Aspirations Growth expectation Innovation Technology International orientation Economic crisis has already influenced attitudes and may especially impact characteristics and aspirations

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI) Acs and Szerb (2008) use 32 variables (19 from GEM) –To create 14 indicators forming –Three sub indices that capture entrepreneurial attitudes, activity and aspirations –One ‘super’ index called GEI For all 64 countries that have participated in the GEM project across the years The index takes a value from 0 to 1 More relevant aspects, more complexity, less transparency

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association Appendix: Entrepreneurial Attitudes Perceived opportunities to start a business –If respondent perceives good opportunities: –Would fear of failure prevent to start business? Perceived capabilities to start a business Intentions: expects to start business in next 3 years National attitudes perceived by respondent –Entrepreneurship considered as desirable career choice –Lots of media attention for entrepreneurship

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association Entrepreneurial Aspirations ‘High impact’ types of entrepreneurship –Growth expectation: expect 20+ jobs five years from now –Innovation orientation: combination of new product and new market –New technology: active in technology sector (OECD classification) These types are quite rare Need larger sample size to be equally precise in estimates The GEM 2008 report required minimum 6,000 respondents between years, in data merged over

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