Population Growth

 What does Texas look like today?  What are the implications of migration?  What does this mean for Texas?

Total Population Growth  million  million  million  million

Recent Growth (2000)  Texas -- grew by 380,975  Immigrants % (Mexico and Latin America)

Murdock Report 1996  Reasons: –Increase in size of population –demand for public programs –budgetary implications

Other Reasons  California Proposition 187  anti-immigration sentiment  use of public funds for some programs: –education –health care  Federal government to pick-up tab  Guest worker program

Net Migration  Cohort component: –Anglos (non-Hispanic whites) –Blacks (non-Hispanic Blacks) –Hispanics of all races –others (all others not Hispanic)  Movement into and out of state from other nations and states

 Assumes current migration rate  Program costs ( ): –labor force rates –incarceration rates –householder rates –Welfare user rates

Immigration  Key determinants of growth –immigrants from other states in U.S. –immigrants from other nations –their descendents

Increased Diversity  Anglo -- increase by 20.4%  Black -- increase by 62 %  Hispanic -- increase by percent  other == %

Results  Reduces relative growth rate of labor force due to an aging population  Lowers the educational attainment and skill level of labor force  reduces wage and salary level of labor force

Policy Implications  Increased growth in human services, job training, and educational programs for older persons and minority groups

 Lower socioeconomic resources due to more minority households (poorer)  faster projected growth of minority populations

 Reduces the overall socioeconomic welfare of state –decreased consumer expenditures –decreased tax revenues

 Study resulted in Closing the Gap initiatives for Texas universities –Minority students –First-generation students

 Types of immigrants: –refugees –temporary labor migrants –without documents –all other kinds of legal immigrants

Eligibility for Public Services  Refugees eligible upon arrival  permanent resident aliens not immediately eligible  illegal migrants -- lowest probability of seeking public assistance due to fear to deportation