Northwest Power and Conservation Council Review of Draft Commercial Sector Conservation Assessment 28 April, 2009

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 2 All Commercial Files Can Be Found on line at:

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Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 4 Today’s Topics What is Commercial What is Commercial Overview of Results Overview of Results Navigating the Workbooks Navigating the Workbooks Measure-Specific Reviews Measure-Specific Reviews

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 5 Commercial Sector Over 3 billion sf of non-residential buildings Over 3 billion sf of non-residential buildings –40 to 50 million SF of new stock per year Over 350,000 buildings Over 350,000 buildings Plus “Process” Plus “Process” –Streetlights, parking, sewage & water treatment, communications, information processing, icemakers …

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Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 7 Commercial Sector Floor Area

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 8 Results to Date: Achievable Savings About 1400 MWa by 2029 FOLLOWING RESEULTS ARE SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT! Expect modest revisions to floor area and fuel cost Expect modest revisions to floor area and fuel cost Measure data refinements on costs and applicability for some of the measures Measure data refinements on costs and applicability for some of the measures A few measures to add A few measures to add Placeholder estimates to update Placeholder estimates to update Error checking Error checking New data on baseline for exiting stock not yet available New data on baseline for exiting stock not yet available

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 9 Measure Bundles Integrated Building Design Integrated Building Design Lighting Power Density Lighting Power Density Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Windows Daylighting with Windows Lighting Controls Interior Lighting Controls Interior ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes Premium HVAC Equipment Premium HVAC Equipment Windows Windows Package Roof Top Optimization & Repair Package Roof Top Optimization & Repair Variable Speed Chiller Variable Speed Chiller Controls Commission Complex HVAC Controls Commission Complex HVAC Evaporative Assist Cooling Evaporative Assist Cooling Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC Demand Control Ventilation Demand Control Ventilation Duct Sealing and Repair Duct Sealing and Repair Roof Insulation Roof Insulation Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Plug Load Sensor Premium Fume Hood Pre-Rinse Spray Wash Exit Signs Network PC Power Management Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Clothes Washers Cooking Equipment Office Equipment Computer Servers and IT Exterior Building Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Parking Lighting LED Traffic Lights LED Advertising Signs Municipal Sewage Treatment Municipal Water Supply DCV Restaurant Hood DCV Parking Garage

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 10 Commercial Sector Achievable Savings Potential by End Use by 2030

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 11 More Detail on Relative Size 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 12 Building-Related Measures Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings by 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 13 Equipment-Related Measures Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2029

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 14 Commercial Supply Curve by End Use

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 15 Commercial Supply Curve Lost-Opportunity and Retrofit

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 16 Navigating the Workbooks ComMaster: Measure list, links to supporting files, key characteristics, administration Marginal Cost Data: Forecast Data: Supply Curve Bundler: Sums measure bundle supply curves by year and cost. One for Lost-Opportunity & One for Retrofit ProCost Workbooks: One for each measure bundle. All the measure details, ProCost engine & output, supply curve, data sources notes, and To-Do list

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 17 ComMaster: Contents Let’s Take a Brief Look

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 18 ProCost Workbook Structure SC worksheets (up to 4): Supply Curve Worksheets. Calculates supply curve total savings potential by cost bin by year. SC worksheets (up to 4): Supply Curve Worksheets. Calculates supply curve total savings potential by cost bin by year. ProData worksheet (1): Control panel for ProCost analysis. ProData worksheet (1): Control panel for ProCost analysis. MData worksheets (1 to 20): Measure data sheets. Measure level inputs and outputs for ProCost. MData worksheets (1 to 20): Measure data sheets. Measure level inputs and outputs for ProCost. MMap worksheet (1 to 2): Measure Map. Used to assign costs and savings inputs to each application and permutation of the measure. Feeds MData worksheets. Calculates measure weighting. MMap worksheet (1 to 2): Measure Map. Used to assign costs and savings inputs to each application and permutation of the measure. Feeds MData worksheets. Calculates measure weighting. Notes and Sources worksheets (several): Contains notes, savings calculations and links to sources. Notes and Sources worksheets (several): Contains notes, savings calculations and links to sources. Supporting worksheets (several): A variety of supporting worksheets, documentation and administrative notes are also included. Supporting worksheets (several): A variety of supporting worksheets, documentation and administrative notes are also included. 6PSourceSummary (1): Summarizes key input assumptions, sources and calculation methodology. 6PSourceSummary (1): Summarizes key input assumptions, sources and calculation methodology.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 19 Note on Links #REF errors usually mean a supporting workbook is linked and unavailable #REF errors usually mean a supporting workbook is linked and unavailable Use Excel command “Edit Links” to open linked files Use Excel command “Edit Links” to open linked files Calculation: Some files are large and take 30 seconds to calculate. Use “manual” calc. Calculation: Some files are large and take 30 seconds to calculate. Use “manual” calc.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 20 Note on Sources Most sources data sources are in workbooks Most sources data sources are in workbooks Some data sources are outside but referenced Some data sources are outside but referenced There are some private data There are some private data –Site-specific data or commercially sensitive –Private data is aggregated to conceal sensitivity If you can’t find it – call or If you can’t find it – call or

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 21 Measure-Specific Analysis Interior Lighting Interior Lighting Exterior Lighting Exterior Lighting HVAC Stuff HVAC Stuff Process Process

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 22 Lighting

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 23 Why Lighting is Important Lighting is big: About 40% of electric use Lighting is big: About 40% of electric use Technological Change Technological Change –New baseline conditions –New measures are available Proven track record Proven track record –Programs, codes & standards capture savings

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 24 What’s Included: Lighting Lighting Power Density Lighting Power Density Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Windows Daylighting with Windows Lighting Controls Interior Lighting Controls Interior Exit Signs Exit Signs Exterior Building Lighting Exterior Building Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Parking Lighting Parking Lighting LED Traffic Lights LED Traffic Lights Signage Signage

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 25 Increased achievable potential relative to 5th Plan Increased achievable potential relative to 5th Plan –Over 500 MWa in 6th versus about 350 MWa in 5th –New measures added exceed accomplishments –Lower achievable LPDs –More ways to turn lights off More in Natural Replacement than Retrofit More in Natural Replacement than Retrofit Somewhat higher cost Somewhat higher cost Not all of this is cost-effective Not all of this is cost-effective Low TRC cost Low TRC cost Preliminary Results for Interior Lighting

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 26 Notable Changes from 5 th plan T12 Linear Fluorescent are dying out T12 Linear Fluorescent are dying out –None in new buildings, phasing out in existing stock High Performance T8 (HPT8) is FL measure of choice High Performance T8 (HPT8) is FL measure of choice Replace 1990s T8s with HPT8 (75 to 95 lumens/Watt) Replace 1990s T8s with HPT8 (75 to 95 lumens/Watt) Programs should promote HPT8 ONLY Programs should promote HPT8 ONLY Baseline for incandescent is Halogen (EISA2007) Baseline for incandescent is Halogen (EISA2007) Baseline for Metal Halide is Pulse Start (EISA2007) Baseline for Metal Halide is Pulse Start (EISA2007) –Savings deltas are smaller Lot of CFLs in new buildings Lot of CFLs in new buildings Linear Fluorescent is replacing Metal Halide Linear Fluorescent is replacing Metal Halide –But MH to Linear FL still a good measure Added Efficient Fluorescent Fixtures as NEW MEASURE Added Efficient Fluorescent Fixtures as NEW MEASURE

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 27 Interior Lighting

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Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 29 How We Estimate Lighting Savings Lighting Energy: Watts x Hours = kWh Lighting Savings: Watts Saved x Hours = kWh Saved + HVAC Interaction or Watts x Hours Saved = kWh Saved + HVAC Interaction More Efficient Lamps & Ballasts More Efficient Fixtures Control Measures: Occupancy sensors, timers, day lighting

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 30 How We Estimate Cost of Savings First Cost = Equipment + Labor + Markup + Disposal Periodic Costs = Lamp replacement costs or savings Annual Fuel Costs = Cost of gas to replace heat from lights PROCOST COSTS SAVINGS SHAPE OF SAVINGS kWh $ / kWh

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 31 Then Supply Curves kWh/SF x (SF Applicable) x (Achievable) = Total Potential Simple …

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 32 But Tedious 10 proxy lighting measures, 18 building types, 3 fuel types, 3 applications = 1620 lighting measures 10 proxy lighting measures, 18 building types, 3 fuel types, 3 applications = 1620 lighting measures Each with a dozen different costs & savings inputs Each with a dozen different costs & savings inputs

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 33 Reducing Lighting Power Density (LPD in Watts per SF) Source: New Buildings Characteristics Survey, Ecotope for NEEA 2008 Target 0.75 Remove from Potential Estimate Potential Savings for These Code

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 34 Setting the Target LPD

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 35 Source: New Buildings Characteristics Survey, Ecotope for NEEA 2008

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 36 Develop Measures that Achieve these reductions in LPD

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 37 Lamp & Measures Distribution for New Large Offices Lamp TypeFraction T12 Fluorescent0.1 T8 Fluorescent70.3 T5/HPT8 Fluorescent8.4 Compact Fluorescent9.9 Incandescent9.2 MISC0.1 HID-Ceramic Metal Halide0.1 HID-Metal Halide2.0 Sum100 T12 to HPT8 T8 to HPT8 Inc-R to LED T8-2 to T8HP-2 & Efficient Fixture Inc to CMH Repeat for 18 Building Types for 3 Applications Savings from the measures applied add up to the LPD savings target. Savings and costs are weighted by contribution to LPD reduction.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 38 Some Key Measures New for 6 th Plan

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 39 Key Input Summary for LPD Bundle

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 40 Generic Achievability Ramps Rates Used in Commercial

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 41 Lighting Control Measures New measure for 6 th Plan New measure for 6 th Plan A minor revolution in technology & applications A minor revolution in technology & applications –Lower cost, higher reliability and more options Warehouse & Open Office occupancy sensors Warehouse & Open Office occupancy sensors Classrooms Classrooms Dimming during retail store stocking periods Dimming during retail store stocking periods Bi-level stairwell & hallway Bi-level stairwell & hallway Restrooms, break rooms Restrooms, break rooms These measures were not in the 5 th Plan

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 42 Key Inputs for Lighting Control

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 43 Daylighting Results modestly lower than 5 th Plan Results modestly lower than 5 th Plan Over half the savings in skylight daylighting Over half the savings in skylight daylighting High penetration in new Big Box Stores High penetration in new Big Box Stores –All new Wal-Mart stores Savings in side daylighting Savings in side daylighting –Still working on control problems Lower Baseline LDPs reduce savings Lower Baseline LDPs reduce savings

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 44 Top Daylighting: Key Inputs

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 45 Outdoor Lighting

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 46 Advances in LED Streetlighting Since July 2008 RTF Six Months Ago Oakland, CA Oakland, CA Replace 121W HPS Replace 121W HPS 78W LED 78W LED $610 per Fixture $610 per Fixture Improved Visibility Improved Visibility $14 per Watt Saved $14 per Watt Saved Today Oakland, CA Replace 121 HPS 58W LED $400 per Fixture Improved Visibility $7 per Watt Saved NICE PROGRESS

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Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 48 Key Inputs for Streetlights

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 49 Key Inputs for Parking Lighting

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 50 Key Inputs for Exterior Building Lighting

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 51 HVAC

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Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 53 Controls Commissioning Complex Key Inputs

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 54 Package Rooftop Optimization & Repair 6P Savings are 33% of 5P Savings

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 55 Package Rooftop Optimization & Repair Key Inputs

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 56 Demand Control Ventilation

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 57 Demand Control Ventilation Key Inputs

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 58 Demand Control Ventilation DVC Cooling Savings DVC Cooling Savings – New:.001 to.08 kWh/sf – Retro:.003 to.145 kWh/sf DCV Heat Savings DCV Heat Savings –New: 0.2 to 4.3 kWh/sf or 2 to 8 therms/sf –Retro: 0.3 to 5.4 kWh/sf or 2 to 8 therms/sf RTU Fleet Strategy Ventilation Savings RTU Fleet Strategy Ventilation Savings –New & Retro:.54 kWh/sf

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 59 Key Inputs for Variable Speed Chiller

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 60 What’s Included: Process Municipal Sewage Treatment Municipal Sewage Treatment Municipal Water Supply Municipal Water Supply Network PC Power Management Network PC Power Management Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Clothes Washers Commercial Clothes Washers Cooking Equipment Cooking Equipment Office Equipment Office Equipment Computer Servers and IT Computer Servers and IT Demand Control Ventilation Restaurant Hood Demand Control Ventilation Restaurant Hood Demand Control Ventilation Parking Garage Demand Control Ventilation Parking Garage Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Plug Load Sensor Plug Load Sensor Premium Fume Hood Premium Fume Hood Pre-Rinse Spray Valve Pre-Rinse Spray Valve Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Grocery Refrigeration Bundle

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 61 Process Measures

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 62 Process Measures Supply Curve

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 63 End