THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF BIOTERRORISM THREAT Episode III. ONE YEAR AFTER. THE CHARACTER OF THREATS AND MAIN THREATS RANKING. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Konstantyn Atoyev

The threats of bioterrorism have univerversal character. They include almost all ty- pes of threat, that menti- oned in the National Strategy for Homeland Security [1] also in Con- cept of Foreighn Police of Russua [2]: CHARACTER OF THREATS

1. Local and regional threats 2. Transnational threats 3. The spread of dangerous technologies 4. Disruption of governmental structures work

1. Applications of advanced biotechnologies for terrorism. 2. Information on how to produce and dis- seminate pathogens and toxins is readily available in open sources. 3. Corruption and money laundering increase. These threats may be classify on there origins by follows:

4. Strengthening of authoritarism and spreading of fundamental ideology of various genesis due to problems of world economical globalization (migration, unemployment, vast disparities between rich and poor, collision of cultures), 5. The antiterroristic and anticrime legisla- tion is no effective also as efforts of dif- ferent force poles of terrorism struggle.

6. Contradictions between necessity of society liberalization during transfor- ming from industrial epoch to epoch of computer nets, when more effective horizontal structures push out vertical integration and struggle withcorruption becomes more difficult.

WHY BIOLOGICAL AND TOXIN WEAPONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME EVER MORE ATTRACTIVE TO CRIMINALS AND TERRORISTS ? ?

1. The advanced biotechnologies have increased opportunities to weaponize pathogens due to: Site-directed mutagenesis Elaboration of a new type of virus Development of functional genomics Main reasons:

2. Increasing number of experts in biosciences caused by development of: Biotechnology Pharmacology Environmental and health delivery industries Information availability in open sources

3. Difficulties in biological weapon discovering caused by: The absence of defensive technologies of real time regim The tactical weapons utilizing pathogens or toxins can be designed so that they are easily hidden

Where is the powerful source of terrorism ?

1. The lowering of national gove- rnments possibilities in struggle against crime caused by main tendencies of the third millennium: Economical globalization Social disruptions Corruption (organized and transnational crimes, drug and firearm trafficking, laundering of money)

2. Mental disadaptation caused by the peculiarities of modern society urbanization industrialization technological progress total population migration development of mass-media icrease of national and cultural contacts

3. Confusion of traditional social and religious norms in human mentality Mutual penetration of matrixes of west and orient worldview The great populations of their bearers immersed in alien culture, alien landscape alien reality perception

4. Disparities between political institutes development and acceleration of economics and social system transforming in convenience with Hundtington conception [3].

strengthening of authorita- rism and spread of fundamental ideology of various genesis are the powerful source Advanced biotechnologies (especially DNA technologies and genetic and protein engineering) What is the main threat? Accumulation of enormous finances by crime structures ($300 –500 billions of money laundered each year ) Finance Technics People + +

Pooling of enormous finances, ad- vanced biotechnologies and authorita- rian personalities gives dangerous explosive mixtuare. That is why the opinion that only well sup- ported, longterm national BW programs would attempt genetic engineering projects for the purpose of weaponizing pathogens [4] is not quite correct now.

PATHWAYS OF PROBLEMS SOLUTION

The analysis of main difficulties of the struggle with bioterrorism allows emphasize two groups of problems. Technological problems Mental problems Criminality Authoritarian & fun- damental ideology FffF Finance Biotechnologies

The technological combines the following questions : 1. What are the main threats, connected with applications of advanced biotechno- logies for terrorism? 2. What targets of bioterrorist attacks are the weakest links, which lead to the maximum waste for society? 3. How we can struggle with these threats?

The mental group combines the following questions: 1. How people come to terrorism? 2. What cognitve and emotional factors have affected this decision? 3. How we can preserve them from this choose?

1. Development of more sensitive monito- ring systems and preserve technologies, which increase the efficacy of public health and environmental service various measures. The first problem solution demands the following actions:

1. Proper waste disposal, water treatment, and air filtration; 2. Elaboration of new therapeutics, such as antibiotics, germicides, and other agents, weaken or kill the pathogen. 3. Prevention of infectious diseases through vaccine and antitoxin R&D. 4. Seeking methods, which augment the patient ability to resist infection. 5. Lowering the probability of long time contacts with pathogens.

2. Innovation of Global Epidemic Defense Systems that would be elaborated on the basis of modern information and avia- space tehnologies and on the advances of the genetic and protein engineering and may assisted by ground and satellite tracking systems.

These high technological systems can be utilized for two cardinal questions solution: 1. To minimize the lag time between attack beginning and time when it would identify. 2. Transform priorities from reacting on co- nsequences (the tactic of “yesterday’s planning” [5]) to control of event’s risks or, another wards, “to be constantly ada- pted to meet emerging challenges”.

3. Elaboration of information technologies of regulation, processing and analysis grate mass of information, obtained due to systems of space and aviation video- audio-techniques monitoring, forecasting and optimal control.

These technologies will allow solve some tasks of rare events forecasting, early recognition of threats and their assessment, ranking and control of preservation or liquidation of consequences in online regime [6].

The problems of the mental group are caused by main tendencies of the third millennium: economical globalization, social disruptions, corruption, mental disadaptation. Their solution demands more efforts and will be connected with bases of our civilization functioning.

1. Securing the homeland, strengthening the nation (2002) homeland_security_book.html 2. Shubert T.E. Some aspects of efficacy of the US National Defence system//Pravo i politika. – №6.- С [In Rus.]. 3. Garrett L. The nightmare of bioterrorism// Foreighn Affairs V.80.-№1.-Р homeland_security_book.html This lecture is based on

4. Hundtington S.P. Political Order in Changing Societies.- New Haven, Probst P. (2001) Antiterrorism – some aspects of organization// National Defence, № С [in Rus.] 6. Atoyev K.L.(2002) Epidemiological risk assessment:early recognition of risks and identification and ranking of critical factors //Proc. ISEA /ISEE Vancouver, BC, Canada