RECCAP REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Version: 6 October 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

RECCAP REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Version: 6 October 2010

To establish the mean carbon balance of large regions of the globe at the scale of continents and large ocean basins, including their component fluxes. To do it by comparing and reconciling multiple bottom-up estimates with the results of regional top-down atmospheric inversions, with attribution to main flux components. To evaluate the regional ‘hot-spots’ of interannual variability and possibly the trends and underlying processes over the past two (or more) decades by combining available long-term observations and modeling. Scope

Why RECCAP? To provide higher spatial resolution of the global carbon balance with the aim to improve attribution to processes and hot-spots regions essential to understand the future evolution of the carbon- climate feedback. To address a growing demand for a capacity to Measure, Report, and Verify (MRV) the evolution of regional fluxes and the outcomes of climate mitigation policies. To develop the technical capacity in regions with regional carbon balances of global significance but with little or not technical capabilities. To respond to the Group on Earth Observations (EOS) in establishing a global carbon observatory to track the evolution of natural and anthropogenic carbon sources and sinks.

Establishing a large global coordination effort. How we expect to achieve it Developing of a “soft protocol” to guide and ensure consistency among regional syntheses (so they can be compared and add up at the end). Relying secondarily on: –the establishment of new synthesis teams in regions where there is not an established carbon program. Relying primarily on: –existing analyses, –ongoing analyses from regional and national programs (eg, North American Carbon Plan, CarboEurope, Australian NCAS), –global modeling and assessment efforts (eg, GCP Carbon Budget, GCP-TRENDY, TRANSCOM, SOCAT).

Multiple Constraints to Understand One Carbon Budget Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models + ghg observations Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models + ghg observations Observations (in situ + remote sensing) Observations (in situ + remote sensing) Land, Ocean models Land, Ocean models + Regional Carbon Balance Top-down Bottom-up RECCAP Principle

Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models TransCom (Low resolution) Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models TransCom (Low resolution) Regional cuts from global land & ocean models (Low resolution) Regional cuts from global land & ocean models (Low resolution) Regional cuts from global data products Regional cuts from global data products + Regional Carbon Balance Global Products Tier 1 Regional fluxes Components of Regional Synthesis Tier 1 model outputs are coordinated by RECCAP

Regional fluxes Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models TransCom (Low resolution) + Global Obs. Network Regional fluxes Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models TransCom (Low resolution) + Global Obs. Network Regional application Atmospheric CO 2 Inversions Model (High resolution) + Regional ghg obs. Regional application Atmospheric CO 2 Inversions Model (High resolution) + Regional ghg obs. Regional specific observations (fluxes, pCO 2, remote sensing, forest inv., others) Regional specific observations (fluxes, pCO 2, remote sensing, forest inv., others) Regional specific Models (continental, ocean basin, biome, land use change, others) Regional specific Models (continental, ocean basin, biome, land use change, others) Regional cuts from global land & ocean models (Low resolution) Regional cuts from global land & ocean models (Low resolution) Regional cuts from global data products Regional cuts from global data products + ++ Regional Carbon Balance + Global ProductsRegional-Specific Products Tier 1 Tier 2 Components of Regional Synthesis Tier 1 model outputs are coordinated by RECCAP

Reconciliation of flux estimates (independently assessed and often partially overlapping) as a means to build confidence in our understanding of the component fluxes, mean estimates, and inter-annual variability. Synthesis Approach (top-down and bottom-up) Although we are ultimately interested in building a mathematically-formalized multiple constraint approach, model data fusion or data assimilation, RECCAP is not pursuing this approach in its first phase with a completion date of end of Uncertainties need to be quantitatively estimated.

Global Model Outputs for Regional Syntheses ProductSpecificationsCoordinator Atmospheric CO 2 inversions TransCom (12 models), 1° x 1° grid, regional integrated fluxes according to RECCAP mask. To 2008 Kevin Gurney, Rachel Law, Philippe Peylin Ocean forward biogeochemical models Five global models at 1° x 1° for all major flux components. To Corinne Le Quere Ocean inversion 1 model.Niki Grubber Terrestrial biogeochemical models and NEP-flux model Five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, gridded output for all major flux components. To GPP and NEP from eddy flux data-driven model Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Markus Reichstein Fire emissions 0.5° x 0.5°, monthly, burned area and fire emissions (C,CO 2,CO,CH 4,NOx, N 2 O, BC others) Guido van Werf

Data Fair-Use Policy Inspired on the successful model of the AmeriFlux data policy (also used in FluxNet): – Request permission to use. –Assess possible clashes with other users. –Determine which arrangement are appropriate: co-authorship acknowledgements

Species: Minimum requirement : CO 2 Additiona l : CH 4 (N 2 O, others) Spatially explicit: Minimum requirement : Biological fluxes of CO 2 (CH 4, N 2 O, others) Additional : Fossil Fuel emissions Which ghgs?

RECCAP period Variable but centered around: Budget period: /9 Trend analyses: / /9 (ocean trends observations)

Global Assessments RECCAP ( ) Fossil fuel emissions Land use change emissions Global atmospheric budget Global ocean surface CO 2 Global ocean storage Coastal Ocean Rivers fluxes Embedded fluxes in international trade

Land and Ocean Regional Syntheses RECCAP ( ) Land L1Africa L2Arctic tundra L3Australia L4Europe L5North America L6Russia L7South America L8East Asia L9Southeast Asia 10South Asia Oceans O2Pacific O3Atlantic and Arctic O4Southern Ocean O5Indian

Global Syntheses of Syntheses RECCAP ( ) Ch-S1 Comparison of top & bottom up Ch-S2 Inter-annual var. region. Ch-S3 Attribution to regional processes Ch-S4Past and future trends in regional C budgets Ch-S5 Final recommendations

Regional Masks

Products Scoping paper for EOS or “News” in Science: 'An international endeavour to tackle regional carbon fluxes' Special Journal Issue/s (online eg, Biogeosciences, IF=3-4) with all regional and global syntheses. 2-4 high-level syntheses papers reporting key results (eg, Special feature in Nature-Geosciences, or Nature-Climate Change). Summary for Policy Makers. Distributed Data Repository (to be updated in the future) of C fluxes from regional and global estimates available for further research and publications.

Timetable Draft & Scope Last Consultation at ICDC8, Jena Sept Aug Invitation to Lead-authors Dec April 2008 Sept Community and Programs’ consultation RECCAP Session AGU Fall Meeting Dec First Draft Mss. submitted April 2011 Nov Syntheses of Syntheses submitted Progress May nd All-Lead Authors Meeting 1 st All-Lead Authors Meeting May-Oct Global Products Available

Objectives of 2 nd Workshop To work towards a set of agreed high-level syntheses: “syntheses of syntheses”. It is an intense 5-day meeting modeled to the Dahlem conferences (eg, Ubatuba Carbon Cycle Scope Book, 2004). Background papers are written in advance, ie, all regional and global syntheses (and made available to participants). U.S. F&W National Conservation Training Center, West Virginia, USA May 2011 We produce 1 st order drafts for all agreed “syntheses of syntheses”. Mss. to be completed and submitted over the following 6 months; individually submitted or as part of a set for a special feature in eg., Nature-Geo or Nature-Climate Change.

2 nd Workshop: Syntheses of Syntheses Comparison of atmospheric and bottom up fluxes (mean decadal). Inter-annual variability at regional scale. Attribution to regional processes over the globe. Future regional carbon trends. Methods (protocols and uncertainty analyses). Final recommendations Initial Ideas

Scientific Steering Committee Philippe Ciais, Chair (France) Pep Canadell, Coordinator (Australia) Han Dolman (The Netherlands) Niki Gruber (Switzerland) Kevin Gurney (USA) Corinne Le Quere (UK) Mac Post (USA) Mike Raupach (Australia) Chris Sabine (USA) Piao Shilong (China) Stephen Sitch (UK)

Partners and Sponsors COordination action Carbon Observation System (COCOS), Europe Carbon Cycle Science Program - CCIWG, USA International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP) Chinese Science Academy (CAS), China CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan Carbo-Africa Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System (QUEST), UK