A Coastal Observing and Forecasting System for the Baltic Sea Lennart Funkquist Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Swedish Coastal Waters some areal facts Economical zone is about km² Territorial water amounts to about km² European Water Framework Directive (WFD) only contains about km² But the whole Skagerrak, Kattegat and Baltic Sea may be regarded as coastal waters The length of the Swedish coastline is or km depending on definition About islands Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Swedish Coastal Waters physical and biological conditions From an almost oceanic condition in the Skagerrak the salinity decreases to about 1-2 psu in the northern Baltic. Great spatial and seasonal variation of physical, chemical and biological parameters Normal condition means that almost half of the Baltic is ice-covered during late winter The Baltic Sea with its brackish water contains many species that live on their outer edge of survival. Conditions may get worse as future climate may result in fresher water conditions. Typical salinity in the Baltic Harmful agea blooms during summer Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Skagerrak Kattegat Bornholm basin East Gotland basin Increased acidic conditions in the Baltic Sea. Does it depend on increased absorption of atmospheric CO2 ? There is a decrease of pH with about 0.02/10 years in the global seas (IPCC-07) Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Ships of opportunity Monitoring cruises Ferry-Box Satellite Coastal stations Buoys Regular observations One-year coverage for a typical year Water level Buoys Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007 Added: Real-time and NRT data from all Baltic Sea countries

HOME Water as a complement to traditional monitoring responds to the Water Framework Directive Reported parameter Month JFMAMJJASOND Total-Nitrogen *) ××××××× Total-Fosforous *) ××××××× Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN) *) ××× Inorganic Fosforous (DIP) *) ××× Chlorophyll *) ×××× Oxygen **) ××× Secchi Depth × Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

The SMHI forecasting system ECMWF HIROMB HIRLAM Ocean/sea ice model Wave model Data assimilation Ecological model River runoff model Ocean data Built on a complete atmosphere/land/ocean system: Atmospheric model Ocean/sea ice model Open boundary forcing Data assimilation Ecological model Wave model River runoff model Atmospheric deposition model Fine resolution coastal models Oil spill model MATCH Atm. Deposition model Open boundaries Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Fresh water and nutrients input to the Baltic basin with an operational river runoff model ~ km 2 Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Kernel: HIROMB co-operation Existed for more than ten years Sustainable Contract National funding Real-time data exchange HIROMB agreement BOOS NOOS Daily forecast and forcing data 1 nm +48h forecast 3 nm +10 days forecast Freely available on ftp-site Real-time validation and forecasts Freely available on WEB-site user:littorina pwd: hermes Downstream services Oil spill Algea Harbours Sea rescue Sea ice service SMHI consulting Fish and crab larvae 9 partners from 8 countries Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

HIROMB System Agreement 10 Partners, 9 countries Steering Committee Board National HELCOM representative Agreed Annual Plan Scientific Co-ordinator R&D programme Annual Workshop Operational Co-ordinator 7d/24h Operational Centre Operational models/Data collection/Data dissemination On-going projects ECOOP MyOcean Polarview Damocles BANSAI EMAPS Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

OceanWeb Forecast and validation on WEB-site sea level currents surface salinity SST and sea ice vertical profiles wind Waves observations R/V Argos observations Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Data assimilation Sea surface temperature Assimilation of a temperature profile. Climatology(top), assimilation using 10 observations (middle) and observed temperature (bottom) Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Downstream service: oil spill Fu Shan Hai, June 3, 1200 UTC Downstream service: oil spill Fu Shan Hai, June 3, 1200 UTC SeaTrackWeb an internet application SLAR image Forecast At 1018 UTC on Saturday May Fu Shan Hai, fully laden with a cargo of 66,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser loaded in Ventspils, Latvia was struck by a container ship, Gdynia north of Bornholm.. Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

HIROMB-SCOBI Modelled Chattonella-bloom in Feb 2002 Left: Surface chlorophyll (mg/m) from satellite Feb 24. Middle and right: Model results of total chlorophyll and Chattonella concentrations (0- 4m depth) from February Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Fine-resolution operational local models A fjord in Skagerrak A fine resolution model (60m) together with STW (oil spill drift model) is run operationally. The service is paid by an oil refinery situated in the inner part of the fjord Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Conclusions Observational network needs improvement satellite data OK for SST and sea ice not enough data for biological variables more buoys are needed a chain of coastal buoys is developing Upgrading of ocean and ecological model increased resolution with increased computer capacity data assimilation will be further developed a more advanced ecological model is needed Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

Reported parameter Month JFMAMJJASOND Total-Nitrogen *) ××××××× Total-Fosforous *) ××××××× Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN) *) ××× Inorganic Fosforous (DIP) *) ××× Chlorophyll *) ×××× Oxygen **) ××× Secchi Depth ×