Scenarios and Extreme Events Ernestine Fu | CEE 129.

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Presentation transcript:

Scenarios and Extreme Events Ernestine Fu | CEE 129

Presentation Outline Global Climate Change and Extreme Events Scenario Planning Issues in Analyzing Extreme Events Uncertainty Multiple and Compound Extremes Impacts Dependent on the Local Situation Scenario Hurricane Ernestine on Gulfport

“Climate change will further magnify disaster risk. There is major concern that increased frequency and intensity of extreme hydro- meteorological events will result in a corresponding increase in the number or magnitude of disasters.” - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Severity of Event Frequency of event

Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Severity of Event Frequency of event X Y1Y1

Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Severity of Event Frequency of event X Y1Y1 Y2Y2

Hurricanes: Predicted Increase

Hurricanes: Observed Increase

Solution? Adaptation and Mitigation. Adaption: reactively adjusting to the impacts of changing climate Mitigation: attempts to low the process of global climate change by lowering GHG levels in the atmosphere

Scenario: “a story about what happened in the future”

Issues in Analyzing Extreme Events 1.Uncertainty 2.Multiple and Compound Extremes 3.Impacts Dependent on the Local Situation

Issue: Uncertainty in Data

Issue: Uncertainty in Terminology “Events that are “rare* at a particular place and time of year.” “Rare” = the highest or lowest 10%. Hurricanes Floods Storm Surges

Issue: Multiple and Compound Extremes

Issue: Impacts Dependent on Local Situation

Hurricane Ernestine on Gulfport Category 4

Case Study: Hurricane Katrina August 2005 Category mph winds feet storm surge 1,200 fatalities $90.9 billion (2011 USD) damage

Case Study: Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Ernestine (Category 4) Impacts Winds: mph | Catastrophic damage Damage to warehouses Debris and containers washed inland impact the city and surrounding area Structural damage to top floors of apartment buildings Power outages for weeks to possibly months Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies destroyed Very high risk of injury or death to people due to flying objects and falling debris

Gulfport Storm Surge

Scenario: Gulfport Storm Surge

There’s no benefit to inaction.