Anthony Downs An Economic Theory of Democracy Micro and Macro theories Summarized by Courtney Brown, Ph.D., Emory University

Rationality People either think and act rationally, or they act as though they think and act rationally. Rationality is based on evaluations of utility income, some hypothetical, some real. Utility is the common denominator that allows for these evaluations using diverse issues.

Notation U = Utility (actual or hypothetical) E = expected value A = the incumbent party at time t B = the opposition (out-of-power) party at time t

The Micro Theory: Voter Calculations I Method One: E(U t+1 A ) - E(U t+1 B ) If positive, vote for party A. If negative, vote for party B. This assumes that people are voting in the absence of history.

Voter Calculations II Method Two: (U t A ) - E(U t B ) This is based on the assumption that voters base their decisions on previous experience rather than on future expectation.

Ideology It is difficult to make complex calculations across a variety of issues that affect a voter. Ideology is a short-cut for the otherwise unwieldy process. Role of uncertainty with regard to what the future will bring.

Issue Samples Voters estimate ideologies based on only a few issues. These issues act at samples of the larger potential pool of issues. Voters rely on there being a positive correlation between the previous behavior of a party and its ideology.

The Winning Ideology There is uncertainty as to which is the best ideology for a given year. The zero-sum game The guess, and the winning coalition

The Macro Theory A political-ideological scale Liberal Conservative

The Normal, Bell-shaped Curve Convergence, stability, moderation Liberal Conservative Population Density AB

The Bi-Modal Curve Centrifugal, unstable, extreme Liberal Conservative Population Density AB

Lop-sided Society Typical of class oriented society with no sizeable middle class. Liberal Conservative Population Density

Typical multi-party distribution Proportional representation is needed. A D Population Density BC Parties

Britain: An Historical Example. The extension of the vote franchise helped the Labour Party and hurt the Liberals LabourConservative Population Density Liberal

Portugal and Spain in the 1970s The emergence of a middle class Liberal Conservative Population Density

Transformation to Stability The window of opportunity to stability is brief. Liberal Conservative Population Density