Population Geography F Distribution of World Population F Population Statistics F Population Pyramids F Demographic Transition Theory F Population Control F Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo- Malthusians

Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi 2 ; NYC=1,000,000/ mi 2 ; Australia = 7/mi 2 Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.

World and Country Population Totals Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface! Total: 6.6 billion on planet as of 2007 Current Population Counter Five most populous regions and countries REGIONPOPULATIONCOUNTRYPOPULATION F East Asia1.5 billionChina1.254 billion F South Asia1.2 billionIndia986 million F Europe750 millionU.S. 274 million F SE Asia500 millionIndonesia206 million F East N. Am.120 millionBrazil168 million

Ecumene Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 BC - AD 1900 Ecumene, or portion of the earth’s surface that has permanent human settlement has expanded to cover most of the earth’s land area.

Rates of Natural Increase

Birth Control Programs F One family/one child policies –Female infanticide –Social compensation fees F Sterilization F Loss of status F Termination healthcare/food coupons F Free birth control F Increased literacy

World Death Rates F Infectious diseases –HIV/AIDS –SARS F Degenerative diseases –Obesity –Tobacco use F Epidemiological transition

Epidemiologic Transition F Stages 1 and 2 –Infectious and parasitic disease. –“natural checks” according to Malthus F Stages 3 and 4 –Degenerative and human created disease. –Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging (heart attack, etc) F Possible Stage 5 –Reemergence of infectious and parasitic disease.

Doubling Times The doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today. World = 50 U.S. = 34 MDC = 543 LDC = 40 Honduras = 22 Belize = 19 Denmark = 700 Russia = never?

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Palestinian Territories Fertility Rate Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children. AfricaFertility Rate U.K. Total fertility rate

Infant Mortality

Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004

Demographic Transition Model The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

The Demographic Transition F The Demographic Transition –1. Low growth– 3. Moderate growth –2. High growth– 4. Low growth F Population pyramids –Age distribution –Sex ratio F Countries in different stages of demographic transition F Demographic transition and world population growth

Demographic Transition Model F Stage one –Crude birth/death rate high –Fragile population F Stage two –Lower death rates –Infant mortality rate –Natural increase high F Stage three –Indicative of richer developed countries –Higher standards of living/education F Stage Four –CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost = –ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth –Most Northern and Western Euro countries

Rapid Growth in Cape Verde Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out- migration.

Moderate Growth in Chile Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

Low Growth in Denmark F Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

F Pre-industrial F CBR and CDR high and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters. F Population is a constant and young pop. Stage One

Stage Two F Death rates drop… improvements in food supply, sanitation, etc. F Birth rates do not drop… causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population.

Stage Three F Birth rates fall –Access to contraception –Increase in wages –Urbanization –Move away from subsistence agriculture. –Education of women F Population growth begins to level off

Stage Four F Low birth AND low death. F Birth rates may drop below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth. F Large group born during stage 2 ages… creates a burden on the smaller working population.

Soooo…. F A cycle in a way from 1 to 4 F Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are high… in Stage 4 they are low. F Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1

The Demographic Transition in England F Now Stage 4 F Historically –Stage 1 – Low growth until 1750 –Stage 2 – High growth –Stage 3 – Moderate growth 1880-early 1970’s –Stage 4 – Early 1970’s- present. Long time below the 2.1 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement.

Problems with the Demographic Transition Model based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3 it is not an exact science!!!!!!!!

Remember… Demographic Transition is not only dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out migration!!!!

Population Shift

Overpopulation F When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

Thomas Malthus on Population Malthus predicted: F population would outrun food supply F decrease in food per person. Assumptions F Populations grow exponentially. F Food supply grows arithmetically. F Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

Population J-Curve

Population and Resource Consumption

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