Human Demographics

Introduction Demographics is the study of human populations. These studies involve data collection, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling to interpret and predict the patterns of human population growth, population density and the distribution of humans and the resources they need across the globe.

World Demographics Since the Industrial Revolution, birth rates have been fairly stable at births per 1000 people per year. However the death rates have dropped dramatically from between deaths per 1000 down to 13 deaths per 1000 people per year. Therefore the world population is increasing by per 1000 people per year!

World Demographics The growth rate is not uniform. Developing nations are growing much faster than industrial nations. Why?

World Demographics The biggest reason is the difference in age structure in developing nations. Developing nations have more individuals in their reproductive or pre-reproductive years than in their post reproductive years. These countries have what is known as a growth momentum, which is the expected future growth of a population due to a disproportionate amount of younger individuals. Industrialized nations either have more individuals in their post reproductive years or similar numbers of individuals in all age categories.

Population Pyramids Age structure is usually conveyed in population pyramids.

Population Pyramids

Births and Deaths Usually the main influences on population growth are birth rates and infant mortality. Death of post-reproductive individuals does nothing to influence population growth. Overall, infant mortality has decreased in all human populations.

Births and Deaths In some countries, birth rates have declined. These countries are usually ones that have better opportunities for women. As women go to school, work and have improved health care, the time to have a large family has decreased.

Demographic Transition Model An American demographer, Warren Thompson, formulated the demographic transition model to show the correlation between changes in population size and economic development/increased standard of living.

Demographic Transition Model According to the model, as a population becomes more industrialized, its population growth rate will decrease. Some post-industrial countries actually have negative growth rates as their populations are declining.

Demographic Transition Model Due to Canada having distinct populations of people living in different socio-economic and geographic locations, it is in different stages of the demographic transition model (DTM) in different areas of the country. Southern Canada is in the industrial stage of the DTM. It has a very small population growth. Nunavut, is in the pre-industrial stage based on their population age-structure. They have a higher growth momentum than Southern Canada with 33 births per 1000 people compared to 11 births per 1000 people. Cultural factors and quality of life do come into play.

Gross National Product (GNP) The gross national product (GNP) is used as a measure of a country’s level of industrialization. The higher a country’s GNP, the longer the life expectancy, the lower the infant mortality, but the slower the population is growing. USABrazilEthiopia Fertility Rate Infant Mortality Rate Life Expectancy (years) Doubling Time (years) GNP ($)23,

Future Trends??? Will our world survive the 21 st century? Demographers have been trying to predict the future trends of the human population since Thomas Malthus published his famous book “An Essay on the Principle of Population” in which he predicted massive starvation due to the geometric growth of resources and the exponential growth of humans in the 18 th century. Paul Ehrlich, a biology professor at Stanford, wrote “The Population Bomb” in 1968 in which he predicted massive starvation as he felt the world’s water and food resources were at their limits. In 1990 he wrote the sequel, “The Population Explosion”, in which he states the world is living in an unsustainable manner that stretches the limits of the Earth supporting life.

Homework Page 713 #1-4